Beyond Energy: The Significance of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum

By Ofir WinterGallia Lindenstrauss

INSS Insight No. 1133, February 3, 2019

The Energy Ministers of Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority met in Cairo in mid-January 2019 to discuss the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, which will serve as the umbrella for cooperation and dialogue regarding the development of gas resources in the region. While the subject of energy is the basis for the forum, there are also broader geostrategic processes that led to its establishment, and they reflect the regional states’ shared perceptions regarding the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean to their national security.

The countries of the region could leverage these processes into additional partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean, beyond the issue of gas resources. However, to serve as a base for long term regional strategic development, the Gas Forum must achieve other objectives: strengthen regional recognition – particularly in Arab countries – of the potential value of cooperative relations in the Eastern Mediterranean that include Israel; increase the human and civic interactions between all peoples of the region; and continue to foster the concept of a shared regional space.

On January 14, 2019 the Egyptian Petroleum Minister, Tarek el-Molla, hosted the Energy Ministers of Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority to discuss the establishment of the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF). This body, with headquarters in Cairo, will serve as the umbrella for cooperation and dialogue regarding the development of gas resources in the region. At the close of the meeting, the Ministers announced the start of official talks about the structure of the Forum and the aim to draft recommendations for the next meeting, in April. While the subject of energy is the basis for the forum, there are also broader geostrategic processes that led to its establishment. The countries of the region could leverage these processes into additional partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean, beyond the issue of gas resources.

Linking Cooperation Triangles in the Eastern Mediterranean

The intention to establish the Gas Forum was first announced in October 2018 at the summit of the leaders of Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus in Crete. The Forum is the first link of its kind following the tripartite alliances that Egypt and Israel have each forged with Greece and Cyprus, and the result of the gas export deal from Israel to Egypt signed in February 2018. The Forum reflects that these triangular relationships not only do not become competing systems between the two countries, but actually form points of contact. Aside from the gas discoveries, the Forum derives from Turkey’s growing assertiveness in the Mediterranean arena, and the concern this arouses in the region. In addition, the Forum represents a response by the various players to Egypt’s desire to become a regional energy hub, based on its gas liquefaction facilities.

The Gaza flotilla (Mavi Marmara) incident and the economic crisis in Greece were among the main triggers for the creation of the Israel-Greece-Cyprus relationship, which began to take shape in 2010. Despite Israel’s concern that the extreme left party Syriza, which came to power in Greece in 2015, would insist on cooler relations with Israel, in fact the opposite occurred, and relations grew closer. Even the normalization agreement between Israel and Turkey signed in June 2016 did not arrest the development of relations between Israel and Greece and Cyprus, in part because less than two years after it was signed, relations between Israel and Turkey deteriorated again and there are no ambassadors in Ankara and Tel Aviv. Since January 2016, the Prime Minister of Greece, the President of Cyprus, and the Prime Minister of Israel have held tripartite summits. The fifth – and most recent – summit was held in Beer Sheva in December 2018 and focused on innovation and cyber issues. In addition, there are numerous areas of cooperation between the countries, including, inter alia, military cooperation and preparation for emergencies. Given the range and depth of cooperation, agreement was reached in Beer Sheva regarding the establishment of a permanent secretariat in Nicosia, which would assist with the management of the triangular relationship. The United States also supports progress in the relations between Israel and Greece, evidenced by the comment by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who said to the Greek Foreign Minister in the December 2018 strategic dialogue that the US was “pleased to see that Greece emerges again as the leading force of regional stability in the Eastern Mediterranean.”

Similarly, the Egypt-Greece-Cyprus triangle has grown closer in recent years around shared interests in the field of economy and security. This was reinforced by the tension between Turkey and the three countries, and the alliance is also anchored by a permanent secretariat in Nicosia. Since 2015 the leaders of the countries have met in six summit meetings devoted to coordination on several matters, including economic borders in the Mediterranean, gas pipelines from Cyprus to the LNG plants in Egypt, connection of the electrical networks, development of tourism, the struggle against illegal immigration, and joint navy and air force training practices. The three-way link helps Egypt promote its interests vis-à-vis the European Union, and also helps Greece and Cyprus promote their interests in Africa. In addition, the United States and the European Union see it as a guarantor for promoting the interests of American and European gas companies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and reducing European dependence on Russian gas.

Geostrategic Processes in the Eastern Mediterranean Come of Age

The formation of the Gas Forum reflects the regional states’ shared perceptions regarding the importance of the Eastern Mediterranean to their national security. While Greece and Cyprus have traditionally seen the Mediterranean as their chief strategic space, for Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority, this marks a certain change in their strategic concepts. The shared Mediterranean orientation is a consequence of three in-depth processes:

a. The growing weight of pragmatic realpolitik considerations over rigid ideologies: Regional states do not consider links in the Mediterranean – at least at present – as “permanent alliances” based on a shared ideological or cultural ethos, but as “flexible and instrumental alliances” that rely on economic and energy interests and on willingness to cooperate in dealing with common security challenges.

b. Redefinition of regional geographical units: the growing reference to the Eastern Mediterranean in terms of a “region” in itself illustrates the increasing weight of geo-economic considerations over geo-political considerations. As explained by Egyptian scholars associated with the official line such as Muhammad Fayez Farahat and Abdel Monem Said Aly, in the 21st century a shared territorial border is no longer an essential condition for the creation of regional blocs. Moreover, the shared economic interest of the Eastern Mediterranean can dwarf the influence of differences between states and peoples, and provide the basis for the creation of an area of mutual prosperity.

c. The development of a Mediterranean identity: shared interests in the Mediterranean are accompanied by a growing discourse on a shared regional ethos and the need for greater closeness and mutual inspiration between the states and their peoples. For Israel, development of relations in the Eastern Mediterranean is part of the reincarnation of the “peripheral alliance,” which originally was designed to overcome Israel’s regional isolation. For Egypt, belonging to the Mediterranean is seen as a means to overcome its current economic crisis, and as a chance to strengthen its leading position in regional and international arenas, expressed inter alia by the location of the Gas Forum headquarters in Cairo. Greece also seeks a central role in the region, in view of the advantages deriving from its membership in NATO and the European Union. In the cases of Greece and Cyprus, the assumption is that through cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, these two countries can overcome some of the negative consequences of their demographic numerical inferiority to Turkey.

Significance

Although officially the Gas Forum is open to other countries, the meeting in Cairo did not include delegates from Turkey, Lebanon, or Syria. Their absence is not surprising, given the disputes surrounding gas fields between Turkey and Cyprus and between Israel and Lebanon. Nonetheless, this illustrates the limitations of cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, where players who were excluded from the Forum have an interest in working against closer ties between the member countries. Indeed, Turkey’s plans to conduct the largest naval drill in 20 years in the Aegean, Eastern Mediterranean, and Black seas in March 2019 can be seen as a kind of response to the establishment of the Gas Forum. In fact, it can be argued that just as concerns over Iran are a spur to growing contacts between Israel and the Arab Gulf states, so the Turkish challenge is a spur to closer relations between Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean.

In addition, the Forum has drawn criticism from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and from trade unions in Jordan, who are against the promotion of normalization with Israel, as expressed in the formation of a regional body that includes Israel alongside Arab countries. However, there are a number of factors helping the new regional coalition: the deep economic interests behind cooperation on energy; the restriction of the Forum to specific issues regarding gas; the participation of the Palestinian Authority in the Forum, which also endows more legitimacy for the Jordanian and the Egyptian membership; Egypt’s determination to establish its position as a regional energy hub and seize this card from Turkey; and the active support of Greece, Cyprus, and Italy for the Forum, alongside the backing of the European Union and the United States.

So far, the Gas Forum states have focused on the pragmatic interests and have refrained from invoking regional common denominators affecting Mediterranean history and culture or fostering links between peoples. In addition, the Arab members of the Forum – chiefly Egypt and Jordan – have kept a low profile in media coverage. Consequently, a headline on an independent Egyptian website depicted the Forum’s establishment as “one small item for the press, one giant development in policy” – a takeoff of Neil Armstrong’s famous statement. And indeed, the Forum has important economic and symbolic value. Yet for it to serve as a base for long term regional strategic development, it must achieve other objectives: strengthen regional recognition – particularly in Arab countries – of the potential value of cooperative relations in the Eastern Mediterranean that include Israel; increase the human and civic interactions between all peoples of the region; and continue to foster the concept of a shared regional space.

February 3, 2019 | 8 Comments »

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  1. Yes that heavy print part about the “overtures” boggled my mind too. They are crazy, treacherous, and rotten to their cores. What decent normal people would want to have anything to do with them at all…? They wouldn’t even have the very bread they’re complaining about, nor water to wash it down with..if it were not for the benevolence of Israel… Those animals ..

  2. @ adamdalgliesh:

    These creepy-crawlers don’t seem to realise that they are actually depicting themselves…. It would be funny except that they exist, and have their heads filled with that crap. Just imagine…. these inbred half-wits misquoting, twisting and regurgitating the treacherous Khaybar massacre of 1500 years ago, perpetrated by the
    Koran- described, illiterate, half-crazy, pedophile dog…(who most likely never even existed) as being an attempt by the Jews to deceive the “prophet”… for which they deserve all of the worst kinds of punishment….

    Unbelievable ……except that I’ve just seen it in print. …

  3. As for the Jordanians, this article from an official Jordanian newspaper reveals how unfriendly the Jordanian government and population is towards Israel. “Elder” picked up and reprinted this article:

    Jordanian columnist wants the government to clarify exactly how peaceful they should be with Israel:

    Walid M. Sadi, writing in Jordan Times, writes that Jordanians are still not used to the idea of having peace with Israel 25 years after the peace treaty.

    His Majesty the late King Hussein made a strategic decision when he decided to sign the Wadi Araba Peace Treaty due to far-reaching strategic considerations and out of consciousness of the country’s long-term national interests, despite all the pitfalls and dangers associated with it. King Hussein must have felt that on balance, entering into a peace treaty with Israel would serve Jordan’s national interests more than maintaining the status quo. Yet, some quarter of a century later, many Jordanians have yet to get used to the implications of that peace treaty, and cling to the notion that anti-normalisation with the Zionist state serves Jordan’s interests more.
    He feels that a line needs to be drawn between what Jordan must do to legally uphold the peace treaty and what it must do to avoid any warming of relations between the two countries:

    The anti-normalists are failing to distinguish between normalisation of relations with Israel, which is basic, legally necessary and binding under the peace treaty on one hand, and elevating bilateral relations with Israel to warmer levels on the other, which is not legally binding.

    Jordanians at large do not differ on the need to cool off relations with Israel for as long as it continues its current path of defiance of everything sensible to the Palestinian’s overtures for peace. But when it comes to “normalisation” per se, it would be difficult to reconcile such a stance with the letter and spirit of the peace treaty. This growing stance is clouding the national thinking and judgments on many regional projects.

    The government is called upon to speak out more coherently on this dividing subject, with a view to providing guidance to the public on what is right and what is wrong when it comes to the bilateral relations between Jordan and Israel.
    I wonder what Palestinian “overtures for peace” he is referring to.

    We have lots of ideas, but we need more resources to be even more effective. Please donate today to help get the message out and to help defend Israel.

  4. This transcript of an interview with Egyptian actors who will be starring in a viciously antisemitic TV series to be broadcast on Egyptian state TV reveals how viciously antisemitic Egyptians are, despite the al-Sisi government’s ‘pragmatic” cooperation with Israel against certain terrorist groups.

    Akhbar Al-Youm, posted March 14
    Actor Ahmad Abd Al-Halim: I play one of the Jewish characters, who demonstrates the behavior of the Jewish human being. All he thinks about is accumulating money.
    Actor Ahmad Maher: History has shown that the Jews are a people with no moral values, who do not honor their agreements.
    Screenwriter Yusri Al-Gindi: This series is more historical and political than religious. We have a problem with these people. This problem has continued for a long time, and it still exists. This justifies addressing it all the time. The idea that we wish to convey is that these people have not changed one bit. Their conduct in Medina when the Prophet was trying to build his state there… He allowed them to live there as citizens and extended his hand in cooperation, but this was met by treachery and conspiracies. The only language they understood was the language of force, and hence, they were banished from the Arabian Peninsula.
    Rotana Misriyya TV, posted March 17
    Ahmad Maher: Al-Gindi created a historical document showing how these people are oppressors, who do not honor their agreements. History shows that they are the people who disputed Allah. They are the slayers of prophets.
    Actor Farouq Flux: The “Khaybar” series takes place back in the early days of Islam. It shows the major role the Jews played in fighting Islam, and in the attempt to fight and deceive the Prophet Muhammad. This series shows the truth about the Jews, and about making agreements with them.
    […]

    Dream 1 TV, May 13, 2013
    Ahmad Maher: I play the character of Hareth Ibn Al-Awf. Through this character, we enter a Jewish home, and we learn how they raise their children, how they immerse their children in these odd modes of behavior, and how they teach them to live their lives in a vile, treacherous, depraved, and Machiavellian manner. They teach them that in order to achieve their aims, all means are justified and all values may be disregarded.
    […]
    Actor Mustafa Hashish: I play one of the most prominent Jews, who hatches plots and schemes. He is, of course, very miserly-the purely typical Jew. He is called Abu Khallad. He is killed by his son. So this gives you an idea what the Jews are made of.

    Human Rights Watch and Amnesty have adamantly refused to condemn this miniseries even after numerous emails and tweets.

    Sign the petition and join the Facebook campaign to condemn this imminent mass incitement against Jews that will be broadcast to hundreds of millions of Arabs in the next few days.

    Keep in mind that it will not only be shown in the Arab world, but certainly copies will be distributed to Muslims in Europe and the Americas so they can learn to hate their Jewish neighbors as well.

  5. @ adamdalgliesh:

    I didn’t know that that was what I was doing, it seemed to me highly likely in an area abounding with potential and “chomping” troublemakers.but…. I accept the encomium with thanks….uncommon, and being savoured right now.

    Still, I’d like to know how Jordan came to be included.

  6. @ Edgar G.: Brilliant, accurate analysis, Edgar. The INSS, which prepared this report, is one of Israel’s foremost appeasement organizations, as Dr Sherman has written.

  7. I can understand the PA involvement because of Gaza (although I regard the gas fields opposite Gaza as belonging to Israel, since they are interlopers).. This gives them a sort of permanency and support. An ongoing psychotic “running-sore” enmity to Israel, with the weekly riots and intermittent shelling on peripheral towns. They should be regarded as pariahs, and economically squeezed as much as possible, not partners. A Big Mistake. And I see big money interests at work here.

    Also where does Jordan come into it.They have no Med. gas fields and are, except for Aqaba, landlocked. Greece is about 60-70% Anti-Semitic, using Israel for protection against Turkey… only Italy and to a lesser extent Cyprus, (also Anti-Semitic but with a tiny population and weak, also depending on Israel for protection) can be termed “friendly nations”.. Is this some attempt to bail out Jordan financially…/??

    Israel should take a leaf from the book that Trump wrote with the EU and NATO, and make sure of extra compensation for this protection. But if I know the Jewish character at all, they will be getting so much gratification that they are being “recognised” by enemies, that they’ll benevolently ignore this.

    Of the 6 “partner” countries mentioned, 5 are strong Jew-Haters. And since the group’s declared goal is solely directed only on “gas-cooperation”, any extra relationship “spin-off”, such as normalising both politically and socially, will be strongly opposed; particularly by the Arab populations
    .
    There have already been strong street demonstrations in Egypt and Jordan against buying gas from Israel. And we have heard nothing for the last few months about the Jordan $1.2 (or .5) bill, deal.

    The Turks with Erdogan’s Caliphitic (?) obsession, will be bound to boost up their naval forces in the area, and interfere as much as possible short of actual hostilities, with the ongoing gas projects.