Peloni: The road to facing off against China runs thru defeating Iran. As the current regime in Iran is on the verge of collapse, we are likely to see the coordination between Iran and China being replaced by the coordination between Irna and the US. Given that Iran is China’s main supplier of energy, and that its entire domestic policy might be leveraged by the US against China into the future, the defeat of Iran will not only benefit US interests by eliminating the nuclear and developing ICBM threat in Iran, but it will shift the control of the flow of oil from Iran, not to mention it also shifting the control of the Straits of Hormuz from an enemy regime to a US ally. These are important and potentially decisive shifts.
by Gordon G. Chang • Gatestone Institute • June 16, 2025
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi signed a document on Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program. (Photo by Tasnim News Agency, CC BY 4.0)
- “There were some very, very relieved people in the Gulf as the sun rose this morning…. The Saudis know that China had armed their enemy Iran with nukes and lesser weapons and fully backed the Houthis, who have been waging war on the Kingdom for years.” — Jonathan Bass, Chief Executive Officer, Argent LNG, to Gatestone Institute, June 13, 2025.
- “The Chinese state is only as strong as its main energy provider, and that main energy provider, which so far has not been able to counter Israeli strikes, is unlikely to survive this war in its current form.” — Brandon Weichert, author of The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy, to Gatestone Institute, June 13, 2025.
- “With the loss of Syria and Hezbollah, Iran no longer has a command and control center in Damascus, only a two hour drive from Beirut. That means China can no longer manipulate events there.” — Jonathan Bass, to Gatestone Institute, June 13, 2025.
- China has a Trump problem in the wider region as well. With the exception of Iran, almost everybody, including Iran’s partner Qatar, seems to love the American president. Trump took the Gulf by storm in his three-nation — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates — trip in May.
Israeli air and drone strikes during the early hours of June 13th crippled Iran — and severely set back Tehran’s regional ambitions. The Israel Defense Forces hit nuclear weapons development facilities and ballistic missile sites, and killed senior military officers, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the armed forces chief of staff, and Major General Hossein Salami, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iranian media announced the death of Ali Shamkhani, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s top adviser.
Tehran said that Israel’s action was a “declaration of war.” This war is continuing, and Iran has struck back with ballistic missile and drone attacks.
Narratives will change as the fighting continues, but one conclusion is already evident: China, Iran’s long-time backer, is a victim of the fighting. That is a quick reversal of fortunes. Only last year, the Chinese looked ascendant in the region.
I don’t think China is going to be scared off so easily. They still see an opportunity either to gain influence, or to make things tough for the US, and Israel, whom they see as a proxy. I am hearing of daily Chinese transport planes arriving in Iran. Early accounts said that they were evacuating Chinese nationals, but as the flights are continuing, it seems obvious that they are shipping in materiel. I would guess anti-aircraft systems, missiles, and perhaps long-range drones. China is always a spoiler.
I don’t think the “Chinese” people, bar a miracle, are going to do anything. The Communists run China because the USSR was given free reign to install them as Russian puppets, and th US did not back the Kuomintang beyond the Taiwan Straits. The last time the Chinese ruled China was 1644.