Update on Iranian Missile and Drone Attacks

Iran’s Missile Capability is Significantly Degraded

Below please find an up to date analysis of the number of missiles fired by Iran. The information was assembled from AI sources plus the author’s own input.

The US and Israel are focusing on destroying Iranian launchers (typically mobile TELs or Transporter, Erector, Launchers). I would expect much more attrition of launchers in the coming few days.

Most of Iran’s air defenses have been neutralized in key areas. On March 2, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Dan Caine announced that local air superiority had been established over Western Iran and Tehran. The IDF reported on March 2 that it has successfully targeted and neutralized over 200 Iranian air defense systems since the start of the conflict. Because the air defense threat has been so heavily degraded, the U.S. has begun utilizing B-1 Lancer heavy bombers for strikes. This indicates a high level of confidence that Iran’s long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) systems are no longer a primary threat to non-stealth aircraft in certain corridors.

There are no credible reports on the loss of any US or Israeli fighter jets over Iran.

Because the UK will not let the US use British bases in the UK, Cyprus or Diego Garcia, the B-1’s are flying from the United States directly to their assigned targets. The British have hurt US warfighting efforts and the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has compromised (if not terminated) the US-UK special relationship.

Estimated Status as of March 3, 2026

S-300 / S-400—Largely Non-Functional. Most batteries near Tehran and Isfahan were targeted in the opening hours of Feb 28.

Bavar-373***—Severely Degraded. Iran’s domestic long-range system was prioritized in the “Phase One” dismantling of defenses in Western Iran.

Point Defenses (Tor/Pantsir)Intermittent. —While some short-range systems remain active around high-value targets (like the Natanz nuclear site), they have been unable to prevent “stand-off” munitions from striking their targets.

***Bavar includes China’s HQ-9B air defense system, alongside Chinese anti-stealth YLC-8B radars.

Breakdown by Country

UAE: ~165 missiles

Kuwait: ~97 missiles

Qatar: ~65 missiles

Bahrain: ~45 missiles

According to military assessments from the IDF and IISS:

• Initial Salvo (Feb 28): Iran launched approximately 150 to 200 ballistic missiles directly at Israel in the opening hours of the conflict. This barrage primarily featured Emad and Ghadir missiles. The IDF and U.S. forces (using a combination of Arrow-3, David’s Sling, and SM-3 interceptors) shot down the vast majority of these threats. Initial reports suggest an interception rate of over 95% for the primary ballistic salvos.
• Subsequent Waves (March 1–2): The frequency of large-scale strikes decreased significantly due to the destruction of roughly 50% of Iran’s mobile launchers by U.S. and Israeli air strikes.
• March 2 Activity: On this day, Iran shifted to smaller, “coordinated barrages.” The IDF reported launches of between 9 and 30 missiles per attack throughout the day.

• Tactical Shift: By March 2, the IDF noted that Iranian crews began abandoning launchers after firing a single missile to avoid being “sniped” by loitering munitions and drones that have established air superiority over Tehran and Western provinces.
• Underground Assets: While many mobile surface launchers have been hit, Iran still retains a significant number of “static” or rail-based launchers inside its hardened underground facilities. These are much harder to destroy but offer less flexibility than the mobile units.

Current Capability

Despite losing roughly half of its mobile fleet in just three days, Iran’s remaining 200+ launchers still represent a formidable threat. However, the loss of these units is the primary reason the massive 150-missile waves seen on February 28 have devolved into smaller, “sporadic” barrages of 9 to 30 missiles as of today.

Suicide Drones

Based on military reports and tracking data as of March 3, 2026, the total number of Iranian drones launched is estimated to be between 600 and 800 units. Nearly all the Iranian drones aimed at Israel were shot down.

Israel’s Iron Beam laser system reportedly also is doing well. The system was officially activated overnight on March 1–2 to intercept a barrage of rockets and drones launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon targeting the Haifa area and northern Israel. While specific “kill counts” are classified, defense sources indicate the laser successfully neutralized “scores of threats,” primarily focused on short-range rockets, mortars, and UAVs (drones).

Conclusion

Overall air defense systems and attacks on Iranian assets are paying off. Systems that are fully integrated are the future of effective air defense systems. Russian, Chinese and Iranian air defenses, on the other hand, mostly did not survive attacks from the US and Israel, apparently using stand off weapons to knock them out. From a broader strategic perspective this indicates that western systems (mainly US and Israel, plus some joint systems like NASAMS) are considerably better than their Russian and Chinese counterparts.

The major US and NATO concern is there are not enough interceptor missiles for a sustained conflict, meaning that (a) production of interceptor missiles must be stepped up and (b) that the best defense is an effective offense, that is, the best solution is to destroy the enemy assets on the ground before they can be used.

One can expect that most of Iran’s missile forces will be effectively neutralized in the next week, opening Iran up to systematic destruction of its military installations and equipment, strategic and tactical communications, and key regime support units (especially IRGC and police units). Iran’s naval assets also are being liquidated and naval bases, including Bandar Abbas and Chahbahar, severely damaged. This means that Iran’s ability to shut down the Straits of Hormuz and Gulf transit of oil is, at best, only a short term threat.

Meanwhile, degradation of Iran’s leadership (and starting yesterday, Hezbollah) continues. The latest includes the elimination of Iranian General Majid ibn al-Reza, who was appointed Acting Defense Minister of Iran, yesterday