Peloni: This remains a potent possibility as Trump’s patience with the regime seems somewhat indefinite, even while leaving the blockade on Iranian shipping in place. The question of whether regime collapse would outlast the regime’s willingness to accept terms and thereby survive to reign down madness upon the world once again would seem to argue that the regime will in fact survive this test of wills.
Despite the end of Operation Roaring Lion, Tehran continues to issue military threats and project strength. But beneath the surface, a deepening economic and social crisis could turn any agreement into a lifeline for the regime, rather than an end to the war.
Prof. Eyal Zisser | April 26, 2026
The declaration of a ceasefire, which has for now brought Operation Roaring Lion to an end, was met in Israel, and among many in the US, with a sour feeling. The Iranian regime did not collapse, as some in Washington and Jerusalem had hoped, and it even continued to rain missiles down on us. By all indications, the number of missiles it still has may be enough for many more weeks of fighting. The fire could indeed resume at any moment, but it is clear that the US administration is focused on reaching a permanent agreement that will end the war.
It is no surprise that once the fighting stopped, the Iranians rushed to declare victory. In truth, they are speaking and acting as though they had the upper hand in the confrontation. When they wish, they send their representatives to negotiations with the US, and when they wish, they boycott the talks. The fact that they continue to hold the world hostage by closing the Strait of Hormuz is another example of this, as is the fact that they succeeded in forcing the US to impose a ceasefire in Lebanon on Israel, thereby proving that they are the real power brokers there as well.
The fact that the internet in Iran is still disrupted, and that there are almost no images or figures regarding the extent of the destruction to the country’s military capabilities and infrastructure, makes it easier for the Iranians to portray the confrontation as an achievement. Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist organization, is doing the same in Lebanon, after managing, with Iran’s help, to turn back the clock and impose limits on Israel’s freedom of action in that country, limits that did not exist before Hezbollah launched the war.
But according to the rule that prevails in our region, under which if you are still alive when the fighting ends, you are the victor, regardless of the damage and losses you sustained, the victory celebration in Tehran is nothing more than a deception by a bankrupt country standing on the edge of an abyss, certainly an economic one.
The Iranian regime entered the current round of confrontation battered and weaker than ever. Over the past year, Iran has been plunged into a severe economic crisis, perhaps one of the worst it has ever known, which led to an unprecedented wave of protest that, at its height, threatened the stability of the ayatollahs’ regime, and perhaps even its very existence. The Iranian currency, the rial, lost almost another 90% of its value, inflation soared, and millions of Iranians, whose average salary is about $120 a month, were left destitute.
But when senior regime officials are corrupt and incompetent, and a quarter of the budget is directed toward building missiles and developing nuclear capabilities, as well as, of course, financing Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, it is no wonder that there is no money to ease the plight of Iran’s citizens or solve the country’s fundamental problems, such as a severe water shortage or hourslong rolling blackouts in all of Iran’s cities.
And now came the latest war, which according to estimates caused some $1 trillion in damage to the Iranian economy. Israel’s strikes on petrochemical plants and iron and steel factories, for example, have been disastrous, paralyzing the energy sector and the construction industry. To this must be added the American blockade on Iran, which is costing the Iranians nearly half a billion dollars every day.
This reality threatens to push more than 10 million Iranians out of the labor market and turn them into unemployed workers. But even for everyone else, the regime in Tehran will struggle to pay salaries and ensure that basic goods remain available in stores. How it will fund the reconstruction of what has been destroyed is difficult to know.
The Iranian regime is playing for time. Like a poker player left with no cards, it is betting that its opponent, President Donald Trump, is unaware of the dire situation in Iran and is therefore still interested in reaching an agreement with the ayatollahs. The Iranians are acting as though they are not interested in such an agreement, but in truth, they dream of one. After all, it would lead to the lifting of sanctions on Iran and the flow of many billions of dollars into its empty coffers.
Regimes do not fall in an instant, and for the deep processes in Iran to mature, time is required. It would be a twist of fate if, at this moment of existential crisis for the regime in Iran, President Trump were the one to throw it a lifeline.
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