Israel’s Lebanon quagmire

Peloni: In an important article, foreign policy analyst and expert on US-Israeli relations, Mitchel Bard explains that Israel faces a significant strategic dilemma in dealing with Hezbollah in Lebanon for which no good options exist.  The continued threat posed by a heavily armed Hezbollah, but potential strategies such as containment, escalation, or reoccupation all carry significant risks.

Reoccupation of southern Lebanon could result in pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River, but it would not eliminate the threat of Hezbollah’s long-range missile capabilities, nor would it prevent it from rebuilding north of the Litani. Previously, Israel has relied upon deterrence and limited strikes, but this failed, as Hezbollah continued to strengthen and prepared for a large-scale attack similar to Hamas’s October 7 assault.

Having achieved tactical successes in the past, including the killing commanders and damaging infrastructure, Hezbollah has remained resilient, continuing to launch missiles, while replenishing its capabilities via Iranian support. Ceasefires and reliance on international coordination have also failed to disarm Hezbollah, due to Hezbollah’s dominance over Lebanon’s internal social, political and military infrastructure.

Fully disarming Hezbollah would require the conquest over all of Lebanon, which Israel is not contemplating. Reoccupation risks a prolonged conflict, civilian displacement, and international condemnation, all of which would lead to Hezbollah’s political strengthening. Notably, international condemnations are already building among Iran’s most faithful European enablers, to which Israel should pay little notice.

Yet, the status quo in Lebanon can not be allowed to persist, and demands from Israeli leaders for a resolution to the Northern menace are rising, even as the solutions to ending the status quo are fraught with unenviable long-term consequences.  Hence, what viable alternative might be preferably pursued.  The path to defeating Hezbollah has always held the prerequisite of the defeating Iran, and we are still waiting for to see if this will be achieved thru Trump’s current negotiating initiative.  I remain skeptical that anything emerging from these negotiations will in fact lead to the earnest curtailment of Iran’s financing its proxies, especially the prized proxy of Hezbollah.  Time will tell of course.

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https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425238