Must-Read Post: Even After Winter’s Commitment to Recommend Netanyahu, Can He Still Crown Lieberman Without Violating His Commitment? Here Is a Plausible Scenario.

Yossi Baum | X | Aug 27, 2026

Brig. Gen. (Res.) Ofer Winter’s Speech at Jerusalem Day Ceremony, March 10, 2025. Screengrab via Youtube.

After we have seen that Winter has countless Lieberman people around him (details below), after Kaplan has been “lifting” him up, and after he established his party despite the risk of Smotrich falling below the threshold, the burden of proof is on him that he will not go into a bloc with Lieberman and Bennett. And here is why:

A. The degree of closeness between Winter and Lieberman

First, pay attention to the closeness between Winter and Lieberman. Much more than you thought:

1. While in 2018 Eisenkot prevented Winter from becoming the Prime Minister’s Military Secretary, the person who stood by his side was Lieberman, then Defense Minister, who appointed him as his personal military secretary.

2. The closeness between Winter and Lieberman is not limited to the previous decade. In 2024 as well, when the Left persecuted Winter, Lieberman publicly stood by his side.

3. Sharon Shalom, one of Lieberman’s closest associates, is in Winter’s inner circle.

4. Kobi Eliraz, who joined Lieberman, is an adviser to Winter.

5. Aviv Ezra, chairman of ‘Victory Generation,’ who is on Winter’s list, is also considered close to Yisrael Beiteinu. The chairmen of the ‘Victory Generation’ caucus established in the Knesset are MK Sharon Nir of Yisrael Beiteinu, and MK Dan Illouz, who also defected to Lieberman.

6. Davidi Ben Zion, also on Winter’s list, and someone considered close to Bennett and Shaked, explicitly said in recent months that he is willing to join ‘Yisrael Beiteinu.’

It is important to mention here the considerable closeness between Winter and Bennett, which goes back more than 30 years(!), since they served together in Sayeret Matkal (see in the response to the post), and places Winter in the same political area code, with the formation of a third bloc of Lieberman-Bennett-Winter being almost self-evident.

B. The conscription law

Now pay attention: two very prominent figures in the public struggle against the conscription law are with Winter – Lali Deri and Davidi Ben Zion (links in the response to the post). Yosef Haddad wrote that there needs to be a conscription law with severe sanctions against the Haredim. Aviv Ezra also represented reservists (although with a somewhat different position regarding the conscription law).

Winter’s own people briefed N12 the day before yesterday that “Winter wants a broad government headed by Netanyahu but not a narrow government, among other things because he does not want them to be dependent on the Haredim because of the conscription issue.”

Now let us think about the political meaning that follows from this: the Haredim have already declared that even before the establishment of a new right-wing government they will demand the passage of a conscription law. Without a doubt – this demand will constitute a non-negotiable condition on their part for entering the coalition.

What are Winter’s red lines on the conscription issue? And what is the likelihood that they will correspond with the Haredi demands?

It must be said that Winter himself has spoken out against forcibly conscripting Haredim. But these are only statements. It can already be assumed that Lali Deri and Davidi Ben Zion (and perhaps others as well) will ‘stand on their hind legs’ to make sure that Winter does not agree to a conscription law according to the Haredim’s wishes. What will happen then? What will the other party members do?

The positions on the list are also unclear. Who is in positions 3-4? Who is in the positions after them? This has real significance for our purposes – if Lali Deri and Davidi Ben Zion are in the top positions, they have a real card in their hands: the threat of breaking up the party, and the ability to lead Winter as they wish on the issue.

If such a scenario happens – and it is much more than ‘reasonable’ – Winter can roll his eyes to the heavens, and his commitment this evening will not be worth even a potsherd. Winter will turn to Netanyahu, say that he wants to join, and there will even be broad smiles and joint photographs. But then the issue of the conscription law will come up, and it will be very convenient for Winter to bring down the negotiations over an issue on which there is no unified opinion even within the Right.

And then, what will happen is one of two things: either Netanyahu will tell Winter that he is not suitable for the coalition, because, what can you do, the Haredim are worth more numerically. Or Netanyahu will declare that he is more interested in Winter, but then he will not have a coalition because the Haredim will abandon him.

Either way, Winter will have the full case to stand before the public and say, ‘I did everything so that Netanyahu would be Prime Minister, but there are things that do not depend on me.’ And we will not even be able to claim against him that he is violating his commitment to the voters.

C. Is Lieberman right-wing?

From Winter’s perspective, it is unclear whether Lieberman is not considered a right-wing person, as quite a few in Religious Zionism see him. If my memory does not deceive me, we have never heard Winter make any statement against Lieberman, even when he sat in a government with Ra’am.

One additional point: according to a poll by @filbers this evening Winter receives 4 mandates. That is, he is on the threshold of the electoral threshold. But Winter did not come in order to join, and the presentation of 11 candidates on his behalf is clear evidence of that, as is the narrative about ‘those who were not on October 7’ and so on. And what will happen if in the end he does not pass? And what will happen if Smotrich does not pass and thereby brings down the Right? These concerns, it seems, are of no concern to Winter and beyond.

Therefore, before the trumpet fanfare as though Winter is on the Right, and when he seeks to reassure the Right about the fact that the Left has ‘lifted’ him up in this way, clear statements from him are called for on at least 3 issues:

1. Is Lieberman considered ‘Right’ in his eyes;
2. What are his boundaries regarding the conscription issue, and whether and to what extent he sees the possibility of cooperation with the Haredim;
3. If two weeks before the election his party is not passing in Filber’s polls, will he withdraw or not.

These are the basic tests. If, on the conscription issue, he begins to stammer or speak in slogans, my advice – keep your distance (and it makes absolutely no difference what your own opinion is on the substance of the conscription issue. In the current situation it is either Haredi conscription or Iran, Gaza and Hezbollah. There is no ‘both and’).

It should be said in conclusion that a good word must be said about the many good people who are with Winter, including Winter himself. Among them are people of values with an impressive record. But politics is not a matter for good people, but for those who have proven that they are capable of standing up to the atomic pressure of the Left and the media. And in this area – almost none of them has a record. If anything – the opposite (past statements, see in the response to the post). And hence the great concern.