Preparing for a multi-front war must include the scenario in which there is no resupply from America.
Israel-Lebanon borderIDF Spokesperson’s Unit
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and others, such as Middle East expert Dr. Mordecai Kedar, have warned that we may face war with Gaza, Hezbollah, and others in Lebanon, and even the possibility that Iranian-backed militias in Syria and elsewhere join the fray.
Even under normal circumstances, we simply do not have the resources to simultaneously implement the two separate “playbooks” we have for a war in Gaza and a war in Lebanon.
To add to the challenge, conflicts and threats around the world have created a situation in which it is far from clear that the United States would be able to resupply us even if they wanted to.
On the home front, it means drastically limiting the interception of enemy projectiles to a predetermined list of critical locations. In that case, civilians will be on their own.
This painful policy cannot be adopted on the fly after we realize we are running out of interceptors. It requires a lot of thinking and preparation. And it’s a move that goes against the grain so much that we need our decision-makers and the entire command and operations structure to drill the scenario to the point that the orders will actually be issued and followed.
Limited resources would also compel the IDF to revise the choice of targets for maximum impact at costs which, in a single-front scenario, would not even be considered.
It’s “hands off” when the top Hamas military command sits in a bunker underneath a Gaza hospital in a single-front conflict. It is possible that the policy should be different in the scenarios DM Gallant is worried about.
We must think through these and other operations now and not on the fly because if such tactics are required, we have to know both how the IDF pulls it off and how we handle the international backlash for doing what we have to do.
Israel’s defense industry should already be gearing up for the challenge. Every day could be critical.
The talk of a multiple-front war isn’t just some throwaway line in the debate over judicial reform.
It’s a very real and critical challenge that must be addressed without delay.
Dr. Aaron Lerner and his late father Dr. Joseph Lerner founded the Independent Media Review and Analysis (IMRA) government accredited news organization in 1992,which provides an ongoing analysis of developments in Arab-Israeli relations.
War is a – violent – act of politics and so it is necessary now to gear up Israeli PR and to start on what can be done surreptitiously by salami tactics : first bit by bit cutting supplies to Gaza to the bone. 2) repeating loudly that Iran picked its war with Israel in 1979 and the Arab countries did in 1948 without cause so can not claim the privileges of peace if they have not already made a peace.
Run a major campaign that the Arabs rejected a two state peace in 1937 – Peel, 1947 -UN181, 1949-67 when they had the “West Bank”, 1967 NOT acceptiing the Israeli offer to return to the Green Line for a peace treaty, rejecting the Sadat 1977 autonomy, refusing the Oslo clause to withdraw the anti-Israel articles in the PLO charter, rejecting the Camp Davis Barak and Olmert offers. The price of Palestine is Israel and if they reject Palestine that is OK by us BUT if Israel does not have a right to be Israel nobody else is secure either qv and cp Ukraine and Ireland and all other UN members.
Big campaign against UNWRA beccause it ipso facto encourages Arabs to think they are “returning” and that Israel is temporary.
Find every excuse available to expel the foreign workers of hostile NGO’s.
Budget and exercise Home Command for CD and print ration books now, and clear and refurbish and build shelters and reinforce 30’s buildings on stilts. This sort of thing is dual use for the big earthquake due this century.
Make arrangements to arrest and deport to Gaza – with their households – all who have been at any time in jail for Arab nationalist offences – and work up excuses to do this even without a war eg whenever some NGO makes a fuss about a person / case.
When and if the war does break, go in heavy from the start by wrecking their power stations, fuel stores & shoot up gas/petrol stations, known telephone exchanges, and put down a ring of big bombs round the hospital Hamas uses as an HQ in its basement BUT without hitting the hospital itself. Mine the Levant ports of Lebanon and Syria as priority unlike the US leaving mining Haiphong till the end of V.Nam. Wreck or take everything that has to do with UNWRA.
Good idea!
Joel.3
[1] For, behold, in those days, and in that time, when I shall bring again the captivity of Judah and Jerusalem,
[2] I will also gather all nations, and will bring them down into the valley of Jehoshaphat, and will plead with them there for my people and for my heritage Israel, whom they have scattered among the nations, and parted my land…
[9] Proclaim ye this among the Gentiles; Prepare war, wake up the mighty men, let all the men of war draw near; let them come up:
[10] Beat your plowshares into swords, and your pruninghooks into spears: let the weak say, I am strong.
[11] Assemble yourselves, and come, all ye heathen, and gather yourselves together round about: thither cause thy mighty ones to come down, O LORD.
[12] Let the heathen be wakened, and come up to the valley of Jehoshaphat: for there will I sit to judge all the heathen round about.