In A Few Years China Will Likely Be the Second-Most Important Country for Israel
There is a remarkable amount of interest in China about Israel and Jews, as I discovered during a trip to China sponsored by SIGNAL, the Sino-Israel Global Network and Academic Leadership.
The most obvious reason is that the Chinese–one important official called it the “little superpower–perceive that Israel in particular and the Jewish people in general have been success stories. Ten or twenty years ago this would have been less unique in the world. But now, sad to say, it stands out more because the United States and Europe, perhaps only temporarily, are not working very well.
Of course, on a strategic level, Israel and China have some differing interests but these are less important than they may appear to be. China wants to have commerce with everyone, including Iran, and is protecting Syria in the international framework.
Yet China has significantly reduced energy imports from Iran in order to show support for the international efforts against Iran’s nuclear drive and clear signals have been sent to Tehran. Clearly, Chinese interests don’t benefit from Tehran having a nuclear arsenal and being a destabilizing force in the region. As for Syria, Israel’s position on whether the current regime should be overthrown has not been unambiguous. The Chinese argue that a radical Islamist government worse than the current one in Damascus may well come to power. That is not clear but the concern is a reasonable one, especially because U.S. policy is supporting the Islamists in Syria.
Israel and China also have many parallel interests, among them the desire for stability in the Middle East and the hope that revolutionary Islamism doesn’t spread. And China’s policy of dealing with all other countries has another side, since it will not let its relationships with Israel be interfered with by any possible Arab or Iranian demands. Indeed, if China decides to become the main customer for Israeli natural gas and oil exports, the Jerusalem-Beijing relationship may be Israel’s most important link, second only to the one with the United States.
Another factor which should not be underestimated is the lack of Chinese prejudice toward Jews and prejudgment against Israel that has become such a huge obstacle for Israel’s dealing with the West.
Most important of all, is China’s emphasis on economic and social development, the priority on raising living standards and achieving national success rather than such typically regrettable goals of expanding their territory, getting revenge for past grievances, and preferring pragmatic solutions to imposing ideological rigidity on problems.
There is a huge amount of cooperation, far more than many people realize, on joint projects. While hi-technology is the most obvious area of such activity, there are many others as well. Energy issues are equally paramount. China shares with Israel a great interest in finding alternative energy sources, not so much due to environmental considerations but to financial and security ones. Some impressive ideas and pilot programs are underway that seem more imaginative and likely to succeed than what I’ve seen in the American debate.
Several Israel and Jewish programs have opened in different universities; students are studying Hebrew and other relevant topics; Chinese bookstores contain multiple volumes about Jewish and Israeli achievements without—unlike some other Asian countries–exhibiting antisemitism. Obviously, those interested in these things is proportionately tiny in the world’s most populous country. But this sector has reached a size significant enough to sustain itself and to influence the broader society.
On a humorous level, when a Chinese colleague told me, whether accurately or otherwise, that his people’s culture entailed always being optimistic and believing in a better future, I responded that the Israeli and Jewish characteristic was to be pessimistic and then make jokes about it.
Seriously, though, there are a number of important points—certainly seen as such by those Chinese who think about it—in common. Among the points that figure on this list are a mutual experience of a long history of civilization, wide dispersion, emphasis on the importance of education, readiness to work hard, focus on family, and suffering of persecution. If contemporary Jews and Israelis have lost some of these values, perhaps renewing them might learn something from China.
Of course, we can have criticisms of contemporary Chinese politics and policies but it is also important not to cling to outdated notions. I certainly don’t claim to be an expert on China—though I once thought seriously of pursuing that career path—but my visits to the country go back to 1974, when the word totalitarian could accurately have been applied.
But China is no longer the country of the Cultural Revolution and the time of great repression. It has turned toward capitalism and opened up a much wider margin of freedom. The real power of personal initiative has been unleashed and the results have been awesome. I doubt whether any country has made such rapid progress in social and economic development so fast in history.
But here’s an equally important point. While these changes are theoretically reversible, I—and a lot of Chinese people—don’t think this is going to happen. A course seems set in which freedoms will continue to expand in the decades to come. Equally, there seems to be a genuine appreciation—as there has been in the West but there certainly hasn’t been in the Middle East—that the old strategies of war to seize territory and empire-building abroad are obsolete.
An Egyptian friend visited China a few years ago and asked a counterpart, “China has been the victim of so much oppression and imperialism. How do you deal with that?”
The response was, “We got over it.” The Egyptian was astonished, but as a liberal Arab he realized that his own society would be far better off if it eschewed the politics of revenge, bitter hatred, and the angry assertion of superiority on the basis of an inferiority complex. Of course, the Arabic-speaking world has unfortunately been moving in the opposite direction with predictably terrible results.
In contrast, Israel and China focus on positive national construction, raising living standards, and seeking peace.
What’s important for Israel, then, is to work with this process of events in China rather than to underestimate it isn’t happening or focus only on a negative side that is becoming smaller over time.
Given Europe’s regrettable decline and hostility—which should not be overestimated but must be seriously evaluated—looking east seems the sensible global strategy for Israel in the coming decades.
James B Sorry you Canadians can’t compete with the US or China in markets. Condolences. Since you have hydro power and tar sands. it can’t be the energy discount that makes you uncompetitive. Is it your labor costs? Welfare system costs? Lack of innovation?
By the way, thanks for using the Web, which Americans gave you as a free gift, to attack us for “polluting” it.
@ Bert:
Bert and Laura:
We need to keep our perspective and our chronology in line.
It would not be a matter of Obama “punishing” Israel for closer ties with China; rather, it would be a case of Obama’s punishment of Israel since he took office, just for being Israel, that will intensify if he is re-elected, that will push Israel into China’s arms. At that point, the assumption is that Israel will conclude that it has more to gain than to lose by aligning with China at the expense of the U.S.
Might China ultimately side with the Moslem world against Israel? Perhaps. But isn’t that what Obama is doing right now? It is not China that is busy ensuring that Israel is surrounded by increasingly antagonistic neighbors, and then turning around and making the outrageous claim that Israel must change her policies to be relieved of local isolation and hostility. Wasn’t it Obama who sold Saudia $60 billion worth of arms, to include tactical fighters and helicopter gunships, that he won’t sell Israel? Even Bush #43 sold the UAE more advanced versions of the F-16 – with an AESA radar denied to Israel – than provided to Israel, and with pirated Israeli technology included over Israel’s objections.
Mind you all, I for one do NOT see this as a desirable outcome, a “divorce” from the U.S. and subsequent Israeli alignment with China. I would rather see Israel maintain an alliance with the U.S., but under Obama’s sorry excuse for leadership here, that alliance continues to decline in value for Israel. If Obama gets another term – which I doubt, but allow is possible – it is hard for me to see what choices Israel is going to have. Unfettered by the need to restrain himself so as to run for another term, Obama is REALLY going to be bad; in his case, as they say, ‘you ain’t seen nothin’ yet’.
Go east young man! Americans are the new devils. They have polluted the web and ruin every market they enter.
One point that was not mentioned here is whether Obama will try to penalize Israel for its improving relations with China. Obama wants Israel to be dependent on him so that he can squeeze Israel at will. If Obama does punish Israel over China he might do it quietly so the American public is not made aware of it and will not protest.
@ lily:
Absolutely true on these points.
I’d like to warn everyone that when push comes to shove, China will side with the muslim world over tiny Israel. If you think its bad for Israel to be beholden to America, being beholden to China will be far worse. The commenters here are enamored with China and Russia and are anti-American, and so are blinded to that reality.
Totally wrong. However, liberals are more like the Egyptians.
I fully expect China to become Israel’s MOST important partner – to the extent that one can use that term – in the event that Obama is re-elected.
There are a lot of potential problems with this, however.
First, China may be liberalizing, but at a glacial pace. Their human rights record is still pretty bad and that won’t change much anytime soon. Does Israel want to be associated with that? Look at the blowback from Israel’s past ties with Apartheid S. Africa.
Second, China has a very tiny Jewish minority, and of course, there are no Evangelicals and no equivalent to “national security voters” who support Israel due to shared values, perceiving Israel as an important regional military ally, etc. In other words, there is a) no system of democratic political mechanisms/free speech, and b) no real domestic constituency within China that could or would take advantage of the same even if it did exist, to push back against any national leadership that pursued anti-Israel policies.
So, if China, for whatever reason, were to turn against Israel at some point down the road, there would be no way to counter this in the way we can in the U.S. via the “Israel lobby”, however effective that may be here. Though I consider the influence of the Israel lobby to be overstated by its critics, it is not insignificant, either.
On the plus side with China, there is no real “Arab lobby”, either. No outside power tells China what to do. I doubt that one could ever have, in China, the equivalent of what happened in the spring of ’02, when Prince (later King) Abduallah of Saudi Arabia met with Bush #43 at his ranch, and twisted Bush’s arm into committing to twisting Israel’s arm over the Palestinians. If King Abdullah tried to make such demands of Chinese leaders, they’d likely tell him to go to hell.
I met a Saudi democracy activist in D.C. back in ’09; he told me that “..the Saudis own this town [meaning D.C.]”. I don’t doubt that. Their lobbyists and front men are everywhere. I don’t believe that can be said about Beijing. And the point raised in the article above about the lack of indigenous anti-Semitism in China is a very strong argument. This is a matter of central significance; at least with China, Israel can largely count on China acting on a pragmatic basis, such that if Israel can make the case to Chinese leaders that they benefit from being supportive of Israel, they’d likely listen, without their calculations being clouded by the disease of anti-Semitism. What a refreshing change that would be from Europe…and even the U.S.!
If Israel aligns with China, Israel can likely kiss goodbye anything like the $3 billion per year in military aid she gets from the U.S. Now, in an ultimate sense, that may be all to the good…If I were leading Israel, I’d happily trade in that aid for access to whatever weapons I want to buy, when I want to buy them, as long as I can pay for them, along with rock-solid support in the U.N. and other international forums. If I can’t get that from the U.S. – and Israel can’t get that from Obama, obviously – then if I can get that from China, the choice is clear.
Up to now, however, we have to view the situation realistically. China, thus far, has not been very helpful at all to Israel in the UN or elsewhere on the world stage, in a political sense. That has to change if China can really be considered an ally.
I’m not very put off, however, by the claim by BlandOatmeal posting above about all the Moslem countries China has good ties with. Ah…consider the U.S. on this issue, particularly under Obama, and the same picture emerges, if not even worse. The U.S. under Obama is obviously closer to Saudi Arabia – note that staggering $60 billion arms deal there – than to Israel. The same can be said of Turkey. The U.S. also has strong ties with both Malaysia and Indonesia. The list goes on. Where this matter is concerned, I don’t see where China is any worse than the U.S.; under Obama, I’d counter that overall, the U.S. is worse today than China in terms of cosiness with Israel’s enemies and the Moslem world in general. The only exception is Iran, but Obama’s policies to stop Iran from getting nukes – which are in fact more aggressive than any of his predecessors – are really meant to protect Saudi Arabia, not Israel.
Which leads me back to my original point: Obama wins re-election, expect a divorce between the U.S. and Israel, and China replacing the U.S. as Israel’s most important strategic partner.
For better or worse….
Chinese feelings toward Jews::
“How do you tell a Jewish neighborhood?”
“There;s a Kosher butcher shop next door to a Chinese restaurant.”
True story: When I was growing up in Brooklyn a local Chinese restaurant had a menu item that said “Won Ton Soup (Kreplach)”.
In any event, it doesn’t hurt to learn a little Chinese, in addition, to Korean, Japanese, Hindi, Marathi. After all the Post-Zionist Intelligentsia are all Euro-centric, and where has it gotten Israel? Oslo Accords, Al-Aqsa Intifada, Gaza Disengagement(Expulsion), BDS (Boycott Divestiture Sanctions). Guess it looks like we’ll have to wait until the Post-Zionists die out to see any shift away from Europe.
Why sugar coat this. Look at China’s record at the U.N. vis a vis Israel. China is simply keeping its options open. The reality is that money has no loyalty. And it is time that the Jewish people stopped finding “justifications”.
Europe is becoming toxic for Israel and for the Jewish people, and the president of the U.S. is more openly hostile to Israel than previous presidents have dared to be.
There is no loyalty in politics or business. Israel needs economic partners, period.
Lily
I might add, that the average American conservative is more like the Egyptian than the Chinaman. The description of China here is very accurate. I don’t see, though, how China’s material and social progress has anything to do with Sino-Israeli relations: That has much more to do with what happens at the Middle Eastern end of things. When the Israelis become more useful partners than the Arabs, China will side with the Israelis. I don’t see that happening any time soon. Just look at this partial list of potential trade partnerr for China:
1. Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Tadzikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Turkey, the Arab World. All have good relations with China, and all are Islamic.
2. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Sri Lanka. All are Buddhist countries, with reasonably good relations with China.
3. S Korea, Japan, Taiwan. Buddhist/ Secular countries; relations with China are improving, even though they are puppet states of the US.
4. India. China has an ongoing border dispute with India; and India, in turn, has an ongoing dispute with the Muslim countries. India is also close to Russia, but not at all with China. They are Hindu.
5. Philippines. They have a Muslim separatist movement to contend with, and also a sea border dispute with China. They are Roman Catholic.
You can see that China is very comfortable with Muslim clients; and when push comes to shove, they will side with the Muslims against the non-Muslims. China has spent years cultivating these relationships; and unlike the Americans, they are not in the habit of throwing their friends to the crocidiles. It would be foolish, for Israel to expect them to.
China calls for closer ties with Islamic countries
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2012/06/china-calls-for-closer-ties-with-islamic-countries-.html