Iran: The International Chess Game – Who Will Be the One to Snap the Rope

Peloni: What will be the straw that breaks the IRGC’s back?

What actually happened here on Thursday evening, and where is all this going? Analysis:

Yossi Baum | X | May 9, 2026

IRGC attack on Vessels Defying Iranian Tariffs on Strait of Hormuz. Screenshot via X

Iran’s fate has been decided, but at the same time Trump wants to preserve his image as a man of peace, and he still desires the Nobel Peace Prize.

This is the reason Trump is willing again and again to be portrayed as someone who “takes hits” from Iran and continues, supposedly in naivety, to try with all his strength to reach an agreement with Iran. In the sense of: I tried everything, all of you saw that I tried everything possible in order not to be dragged once again into war. This only helps him in public opinion among the “soft” right in the U.S. — those whose votes he absolutely needs in order to get through the midterm elections.

Why is it clear that Iran’s fate has been decided? First of all because the decision has already been made (as I wrote at the time, see the response to the post). But beyond that — because those currently controlling it are the Revolutionary Guards, and from their perspective giving up the nuclear program is a matter of “be killed rather than transgress.” Since achieving enriched uranium is a red line from Trump’s perspective, the clash is only a matter of time.

What is the tactic of Trump and Netanyahu, then?

• Simple: to drag Iran into making mistakes that will publicly obligate the U.S. to return to war. Mistakes of the kind that will not cause Trump to lose important percentages of support in the U.S. on the one hand, and that will give him a case to continue claiming that his goal is actually the achievement of peace.

How is this done?
This too is simple: imposing a siege on Iran, a siege that will cause it to lose self-control and make mistakes that will publicly obligate [the U.S.], as stated above. And indeed, it made a mistake last week, and it will continue making even bigger mistakes later on, as its oil situation worsens.

In other words: more than the siege on Hormuz is intended to subdue the Iranians, it is intended to cause them to do foolish things that will “force” the U.S. to return to war.

Meanwhile Trump gains the ability to return to war without needing the approval of Congress (60 days, etc.), they also obtain quality intelligence on the new targets — Ahmad Vahidi and his close surroundings — and Trump supposedly also appeases Erdogan and Pakistan. But the end is known in advance, as stated.

This game is so obvious that it is obvious to the Iranians as well, and therefore despite the humiliation they suffered on Thursday night — they are not responding proportionally, as of this moment. They understand that raising the level of attacks from their side will only give Trump that same public case for which he longs.

Will they succeed in continuing to clench their teeth? Netanyahu’s calculated wager says no. That one only needs to wait until we reach the stage where they make one mistake too many. And every day that passes brings them closer to that point.