Netanyahu is paving the way for Mubarak’s defeat

By Ted Belman

Haaretz reports today Israel urges West: Make sure new Egypt regime honors peace deal

    Senior Israeli officials said that Netanyahu would like the international community to make it clear to any new Egyptian leadership that will emerge that it must meet a series of conditions in return for receiving legitimacy in the eyes of the West – similar to those posed to Hamas following the Islamist movement’s victory in Palestinian elections. The Mideast Quartet had demanded, and still requires, that in return for recognition, Hamas relinquish terrorism, recognize Israel and accept as binding previous negotiated agreements between the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel.

For me this is troublesome. Netanyahu knows that even if the West demands this and the new government agrees, it is meaningless. When the new government ignores the peace treaty or disowns it, the West will do nothing. The West is already embracing Hamas though these conditions have not been met.

Instead Israel’s should be lining up with those who warn that the reallity that nothing good can come from the removal of the Mubarak regime which is pro-American. “Democracy” will not last. The new regime will spend more money in preparation for their war with Israel. The poor will be worse off and worse off again if there is war. The secular will be worse off as Sharia is introduced. Only the Islamists will gain.

What Netanyahu has done is to offer a fig leaf to the anti-Mubarak West or the pro-Islamist West, depending on how you look at this, to cover their tracks with legitamacy.

Having said that there appears to be some evidence that what you see is theater. The US, Israel and the Egyptian Army are all making nice, whereas in private they are working toward a managed solution in which the Army retains control. Let’s hope.

February 2, 2011 | 2 Comments »

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  1. Having said that there appears to be some evidence that what you see is theater. The US, Israel and the Egyptian Army are all making nice, whereas in private they are working toward a managed solution in which the Army retains control. Let’s hope.

    You are probably correct.

    Even if you are, the Army will not be able to control the masses when all economic indicators turn South and they will. To maintain semblance of authority and power the Army elites will deal with the MB who will have the overwhelming support of the people and then all bets are off.

    The American military aid to Egypt has allowed them to free up same amt to purchase military hardware from other countries including Russia. They spend over 4.6 billion yearly for the military not including FMF (foreign military financing) (Janes).

    The armed forces inventory includes equipment from the United States, France, Brazil, the United Kingdom, the former Soviet Union, and the People’s Republic of China. Equipment from the former Soviet Union is being progressively replaced by more modern American, French,and British equipment, a significant portion of which is built under license in Egypt, such as the M1A1 Abrams tank which makes Egypt the owner of the second largest number of latest generation main battle tanks in the region after Israel.

    The Egyptian Air Force or EAF is the aviation branch of the Egyptian Armed Forces. Currently, the backbone of the EAF is the F-16. The EAF (planes and pilot training) is considered to be the strongest in Africa and one of the strongest in the Middle East. The Mirage 2000 is the other modern interceptor used by the EAF. The Egyptian Air Force has 216 F-16s (plus 20 on order) making it the 4th largest operator of the F-16 in the World. It has about 579 combat aircraft and 149 armed helicopters as it continues to fly extensively upgraded MiG-21s, F-7 Skybolts, F-4 Phantoms, Dassault Mirage Vs, and the C-130 Hercules among other planes. The Air Force is undergoing massive modernization. Mikoyan confirmed that talks with Egypt are underway for the sale of 40 Mig-29SMT jet-fighters with a possible additional batch of 60-80 planes.

    Egypt has an indigenous military Industrial base employing in AOI has about 19,000 employees out of which are 1250 engineers. AOI fully owns 6 factories and shares in 3 joint ventures, beside the Arab Institute for Advanced Technology. Egyptian Military factories produce civilian products, such as medical and diagnostic equipment; domestic appliances; fire extinguishers; ammunition in addition to regular military production.
    Military production plants are not scheduled for privatization and are unlikely to be sold.
    Twenty—six of these plants produce both military and civilian goods, and many managers of these plants are interested in licensing arrangements with foreign firms to enhance their production mix and improve quality.

    Egypt unlike Israel has diversified military procurement and have not like Israel put all their military eggs in one basket!

  2. Ted,

    I agree with you that Netanyahu’s remarks are, if anything, mediocre theatre (if indeed I have read you right, which is never quite certain). From all I can see, an agreement with an Arab leader is just that: an agreement with the man himself. His successors are not bound by it, unless those successors find it to their advantage.

    Obama’s betrayal of Mubarak is treachery on the order close to Brutus’s betrayal of Caesar. He has stabbed a close friend in the back, in full view of all his other “friends”. We can be certain that the Saudis are looking very closely at this, not to mention the Koreans, Japanese, French and Brits. Between this public assassination, and the Wikileaks revelations, America may have lost credibility among its allies on a scale unprecedented since 1975. I would not want to be a US Marine guard at the Cairo embassy anytime in the near future, and I hope we’re ready with helicopters to save our staff from the roof.

    Netanyahu’s speech doesn’t impress me as accomplishing anything. 50% of Egyptians love HAMAS, despite the assertion of a Haaretz article that HAMAS is fearful of a “Twitter” uprising on its own turf. One way or another, the Gaza-Egypt border seems likely to collapse, and Gaza will once more effectively be part of Egypt — with the gate wide open for any armaments it wants. As a stopgap measure, Israel might want to relocate the border to a wide corrider (Gush Katif?) north of Rafah. Israel can’t control the Arabs — in Gaza or elsewhere — so it will have to control its borders. The rest is rhetoric, as far as I can see.