Israelis divided on Hezbollah ceasefire, only 20% of coalition voters in favor – poll

 

Residents of northern Israeli towns who were evacuated from their homes following the war protesting against a ceasefire, in Tel Aviv, November 26, 2024. (Photo: Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

The Israeli public appears to be sharply divided on its response to the newly-announced ceasefire with the Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon, according to a fresh snap poll conducted by Israel’s Channel 12 news.

The Israeli Security Cabinet approved the U.S.-brokered ceasefire on Tuesday night, with 10 ministers voting in favor. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir was the sole minister to oppose the agreement, which officially went into effect on Wednesday morning.

When asked about the Lebanon arrangement, 37% supported the ceasefire, 32% opposed it, and 31% were undecided about its impact on Israel.

Furthermore, the poll result revealed deep divisions among Israelis along political lines.

Only 20% of coalition voters support the Lebanon ceasefire, while approximately 45% of Israelis who back Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition oppose it. The other 35% were undecided.

In contrast, about half of opposition voters backed the ceasefire with Hezbollah, with 22% against and 28% undecided.

Israelis are also divided on the issue of whether it was Israel or the Hezbollah terrorist group that emerged victorious after almost 14 months of war.

When asked who won the conflict in Lebanon, 20% of the Israeli respondents said they believed the Jewish state was the victor, 19% of Israeli respondents said Hezbollah was the winner, and 11% were undecided. The other 50% held the opinion that the conflict, which began on Oct. 8, 2023, ended without a clear winner.

The U.S.-brokered Lebanon ceasefire calls for an initial two-month end to the fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah. The agreement stipulates an Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah forces are required to relocate north of the Litani River, approximately 29 kilometers (18 miles) from the Lebanon-Israel border.

After years of multiple broken ceasefires in the Middle East, Israelis remain divided on whether the ceasefire with Hezbollah will endure.

About one-quarter of the Israeli respondents (24%) believe the ceasefire with Hezbollah will last “for years,” while 28% believe it will only last “a few months” and another 30% think it will “collapse after a short time.” The other 18% were undecided.

Among the most pressing issues for Israel is the return of approximately 60,000 Israelis who were forced to evacuate their homes due to constant Hezbollah attacks on northern communities. Whether the ceasefire will reassure northern Israelis enough to return remains uncertain.

The destruction on the Lebanese side has been significantly more extensive. According to Lebanese authorities, approximately 3,500 people have been killed, however, the government does not differentiate between Hezbollah terrorists and civilians. The Israeli military estimates that it has eliminated over 2,000 Hezbollah terrorists during the past two months of fighting.

The Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group traditionally receives wide support among the Muslim Shiites in Lebanon, however, a growing number have blamed Hezbollah for dragging the country into a war that many reportedly believe was unnecessary and against the will of the broader Lebanese population.

On Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas launched its unprecedented surprise invasion and attack on Israel, Hezbollah began escalating hostilities by firing rockets and anti-tank missiles at Israeli positions near the northern border. These attacks marked the start of sustained military operations lasting for more than a year, with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets and deploying drones into Israel over the following months. These actions triggered a prolonged military response from Israel, resulting in widespread destruction, numerous casualties, and the displacement of over a million Lebanese civilians.

The ceasefire announced on Wednesday morning requires the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces to prevent Hezbollah’s return to the southern border, among other measures aimed at promoting stability and security for both nations.

November 29, 2024 | 8 Comments »

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8 Comments / 8 Comments

  1. @Edgar

    Seems that “Big Business” had a hand in there somewhere.

    It is believed by some that Pompeo, who was Sec of State, was responsible for this outcome, some say that the decision to send the aid was to keep Russia and China from filling any financial void left by the US in Lebanon, and others suggest it was to maintain some control over Lebanese affairs. A fundamental truth regarding US-Lebanon relations is, however, that the billions of dollars which are sent to Lebanon is an easy sell in Washington, and opposition to doing so costs the US MIC a lot of easy money. This is why Tony Badran describes Lebanon as THE bipartisan issue in the Middle East, because every one loves sending money to Lebanon, despite it being a terror state. So, yes, as you say, Big Business no doubt had a big hand in this outcome, and they still do, which is why US aid to Lebanon continues to increase year after year after year.

  2. PELONI-

    It seems I was being too optimistic. I had no knowledge of much of what you’ve just posted , so I must bow out. However it does seem strange to me that with his ties too Israel and that Lebanon was being run by terrorists, he should allow the deal.

    Seems that “Big Business” had a hand in there somewhere.

  3. @Edgar

    So he should keep his hands off this time.

    I entirely agree, he should.

    But recall that the gas deal is not between Israel and Lebanon, but between Israel and the US. Also recall that unfortunately, Lebanon has many supporters among the Washington elites. Additionally, it is worth noting further that Trump’s Lebanon policy under his first term was the single instance of Trump’s foreign policy which sharply contradicted Trump’s own stated opposition to support for state run terrorist regimes. Not only did he continue to aid Hezbollah run Lebanon but the aid to Lebanon was increased under Trump, albeit after some deliberation. In fact, the well publicized deliberation on the matter was quietly followed by a hushed release of funds without comment or explanation, arguably indicating recognition of the inconsistency of this with Trump’s otherwise impeccable policies regarding terrorism.

    With this in mind, is it reasonable that Trump would vitiate a deal already struck, a deal which was considered by Trump’s first administration as something of a sticky-wicket between two US client states, particularly as the existing deal has the potential US windfall of providing Washington with the financial support for Lebanon which Washington clearly wants, without the American taxpayers having to pay the price for this outcome? From the American perspective, it is a win-win deal, especially if Trump fulfils his promise of dealing with Iran.

    Hence, in any event, while I still hope I am wrong, I see little chance that Trump will allow Bibi to abandon the gas deal. It would only serve to complicate his presidency and cost US taxpayers more if he did so, neither of which is in Trump’s interest of undertaking.

  4. dreuveni-

    It seems that we are fated to differ. I don’t make it this way, but my logic and my reading of the reports, plus my interpretation of them Impel me .

    That poll tesult shows me that the 19% which says we lost thec War, as mostly Arabs and Lapidites. The rest are merely stupid.

    ALL the experts say that Israel has clearly inflicted a devastating defeat on Hezballah. The very terms of the cease-fire show this explicitly.

    So I think maybe it’s a fake poll, or the Israeli public is just as stupid as I’ve always said. My opinion began when I lived there for 14 years and you wouldn’t believe the utter shambles of mentality they possessed.

    I recall my Aliyah, unheralded, unmet, and a lot worse..We landed late at night. A Tout picked us up wandering, and brought us to a “good” hotel. Itv was a red light skid row hotel, of course, and the mattresses were so foul that we slept on the floor.

    There was supposed to be an apartment ready for me according to the Aliya Dept telegram.
    I went looking for it. I met a lady named Sara Ya’ari, She showed it to me on her wall map. But….she said, it’s not built yet. So what was I to do??? She didn’t know. But sent me to an address.

    So onward with my travels. I was directed to see Moishe at a certain address. The room had a long counter behind which were many desks lined across the room.

    His desk was pointed out to me but, ALAS..Moishe was in Jerusalem that day. the guy on the next desk directed me to a different address.
    That day I went from one address to another 5 in all, and ended up….where do you think;……..?????

    RIGHT BLOODY WELL BACK AT MOISHE’S DESK.

    This is a true story, every word of it.

  5. PELONI-

    Well…it was a raw deal from the beginning, and also it definitely IS an Israeli INTERNAL matter, involving the Public Good.

    So he should keep his hands off this time.

  6. @Edgar

    I look to see him soon repudiating the stupid give-away of Lapid/Bennett of the Gas Field

    This would be a great bonus, but I am unconvinced that Trump would permit this. Hopefully you are right and I am wrong.

  7. This only shows the abysmal ignorance of the Israeli public, which always wants “instant success” with everything. If they would only stop and THINK. Israel has made a truly advantageous ceasefire truce with LEBANON. making THEM responsible for Hezballah and as well has given nothing up as far as territory is concerned. The IDF stands poised to take instant action as soo as the truce is broken, which it will be, shortly, since stopping terrorists from terrorizing is like depriving them of oxygen.

    And especially where Jews are concerned.

    Netanyahu pulled off a political BLOWOUT with this ceasefire-but his people are too stupid to see it.
    {I look to see him soon repudiating the stupid give-away of Lapid/Bennett of the Gas Field}.

    Think of the effect this cease-fire will and is having, on Trump, for future benefits.

  8. When asked who won the conflict in Lebanon, 20% of the Israeli respondents said they believed the Jewish state was the victor, 19% of Israeli respondents said Hezbollah was the winner, and 11% were undecided. The other 50% held the opinion that the conflict, which began on Oct. 8, 2023, ended without a clear winner.

    The Israeli public are quite correct in their conclusion that no-one won this war. Hezbollah certainly didn’t fall on its knees and surrender and of course, neither did Israel, although accepting this cease-fire is the nearest thing.
    Hezbollah now gets the chance to restore their forces, fill up their rocket storage and prepare for the next round which will most likely take off with a big bang.
    In this case, Israel must resort to a plan of total destruction of all forces in Lebanon, and forces like UNIFIL, the French, British or US boots of the ground would be well advised to leave while the going is feasible.