Peloni: Trump will find that Abdullah’s opposition to accepting the Gazans is very real and any concessions on this point will be very limited, as the Pals represent an oppressed minority under Abdullah’s rule, despite being paid billions of US dollars to improve the living standards of the overwhelming Pal majority in the country. A govt under Mudar Zahran, however, would be far mor obliging to Trump’s demand of taking the Gazan masses, in addition to reforming the Islamist foundation on which Jordan currently exists.
Ahmad Sharawi | FDD
The White House from Washington, DC, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Following the onslaught in southern Israel by Hamas terrorists on October 7, 2023, Jordan’s King Abdullah II quickly declared that any attempt to resettle Gaza residents in the Hashemite Kingdom would constitute a “red line.” Now, as Abdullah arrives for a meeting with Donald Trump on February 11 — making him the first Arab leader to meet with the U.S. president since his inauguration last month — he faces an administration actively pushing a proposal that crosses that same red line.
Jordan’s objections to accepting an influx of 1.8 million Gazans are long established. East Bank Jordanians, largely tribal, see the arrival of more Palestinians as heralding Jordan’s transformation into a Palestinian state, while Palestinian Jordanians, the majority of the population, view it as a betrayal of their “right of return.” Abdullah is expected to tell Trump that the resettlement proposal “is a recipe for radicalism that will spread chaos through the Middle East, jeopardize the Kingdom’s peace with Israel and even threaten the country’s very survival,” according to senior Jordanian officials. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher explained this stance in stark terms. “This is not an economic or a security issue for Jordan, it’s an identity issue,” he told Reuters.
Trump has nevertheless insisted that both Jordan and Egypt are on board with his proposal. “We do a lot for them, and they’re gonna do it,” he stated on January 31.
Countering Iranian Encroachment on the West Bank
Added to these tensions is a broader concern regarding the security risks arising from accepting a population sympathetic to Hamas, which has a history of hostility toward the Hashemite monarchy. Destabilizing efforts that Hamas might embark upon include inciting protests and enabling Gazans to access Jordan’s extensive frontier with Israel, which is being mooted as the site of a security fence to curb these threats.
Israel’s 300-mile border with Jordan, much of it unpatrolled, has become a key battleground in Iran’s efforts to arm its proxies in the West Bank. The Jordanian-Israeli security partnership in countering Iran’s regional ambitions is critical in this regard. Despite the straining of diplomatic ties between Amman and Jerusalem during the war in Gaza, security cooperation between the two nations remains vital and should ideally be strengthened. The king will likely emphasize Jordan’s efforts in curbing smuggling operations into the West Bank, aided by Israeli cooperation.
However, as Iranian influence wanes in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, Tehran may well intensify support for terrorist organizations in the West Bank. Recognizing this looming threat, Trump may demand that Jordan deepen its security coordination with Israel to maintain stability on the border.
Foreign Aid
The Trump administration’s decision to pause foreign aid under Executive Order 14169 will have a significant impact on Jordan, which, along with Israel and Egypt, is one of the top three recipients of American aid. While the freeze is set for 90 days to reassess fund distribution, Abdullah is likely to highlight its immediate effect on Jordan’s security.
In September 2022, the United States and Jordan signed a seven-year memorandum of understanding committing $1.45 billion in annual aid. Jordan also hosts U.S. troops across multiple bases.
Washington’s Priorities in This Meeting
In keeping with the 2022 memorandum, Trump should focus on bolstering Jordan’s ties with Israel as a foundation for regional stability, normalization efforts, and countering Iran, as well as integrating the kingdom into the “Abraham Accords.” Jordan should also be encouraged to avoid inflammatory public rhetoric against Israel. Additionally, Trump will need to make solid commitments on the aid front if Abdullah is to even consider abandoning his red line.
Ahmad Sharawi is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Middle East affairs, specifically the Levant, Iraq, and Iranian intervention in Arab affairs, as well as U.S. foreign policy toward the region. For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
King is going to White House to meet Trump
I see no concrete evidence of Mudar going to power. Read lots of periodic verbiage and forecasts of such an event but this has never materialized in actuality.
I would like the Muslim Brotherhood out and also other Islamist’s out but I am just seeing Jordan and the Middle East for what it is.
@Rafi
The rise of an Islamist power in Jordan is neither feasible nor sustainable. Removing the US approved Hashemite govt and replacing it with a US approved govt under Mudar will not empower the Islamists. It will cut them off from the power which they hold under the Hashemite regime today. Any protest which they mount will be met and crushed with the same forces which have crushed the protests mounted against the Hashemites over the years – notably, the king is only kept on his throne by the Jordanian military, which is funded by the US govt.
Mudar’s govt will deport the Islamists from his country, and any who return will be met with the full force of Jordanian Justice and all that it entails. Recall that Mudar is himself a target of the Islamists, so this threat of purging the Islamists from Jordan should be accepted to be a given.
If the King ends up out of power in Jordan, most likely the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist’s will take over.
Hamas is the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood. So if Jordan is flooded with Hamas and other Palestinians they are most likely to takeover. This would make the entire eastern front of Israel a potential conflict zone. We have not seen this since 1967.
Gazans and all other Jihadis and their sympathizers from Judea/Samaria/Eastern Jerusalem should be moved to places like Somaliland, Qatar, Turkey. Any place bordering Israel will just become a conflict zone.
Trump should convince Muhammad bin Salman (and Abdullah) of the necessity to accept the return of the Hashemites to Hejaz. The 100 year old occupation of the East Bank must end and all the Palestinians must be permitted to enter the Palestinian state as their legitimate homeland.
From kinghood to president?
Thinking out of the box!
This is the Abdullah whom Jacob-Nostra dee-didll-d-d… has stated , has already given his abdication speech, left the country and etc.
Must be a desert mirage……?
Maybe Jacob is less of a prognosticator and more of a busi\ness Tycoon. There must be money in it somewhere.