Kerry, stay home

By Prof. Efraim Inbar, BESA

US Secretary of State John Kerry warned of a return to Palestinian violence and Israel’s isolation if the faltering peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians ultimately fail. This is a typical leftist Pavlovian response to the impasse in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations that is now over a decade old. Such thinking primarily reflects the frustration that the optimistic evaluations that the conflict can be ended quickly remain unfulfilled. Unfortunately, Kerry’s remarks tell the Palestinians to hold on to their maximalist positions. This reflects an inability to grasp the intricacies of protracted intractable ethnic conflict and a misguided American policy.

There is definitely a possibility that the Palestinians, in particular the radical forces, will recur to violence. In reality these forces try to kill Israelis all the time, and a dearth of terrorist attacks in recent years can only be attributed to the work of the Israeli security forces. Yet the likelihood of massive organized violence by the Palestinian Authority (PA) is small. Rocking the boat endangers too many vested interests of the Palestinian ruling class. The PA leadership has probably registered the heavy price paid by the Palestinians during their terrorist campaign at the beginning of the twenty-first century, as a result of Israeli countermeasures.

Moreover, even if the Palestinians miscalculate once again and go for a “third Intifada,” Israel’s capability to contain terrorism and other modes of civilian struggle is high. The Israeli army can be trusted to meet all challenges successfully. Most important, a large majority of Israelis believe that the Palestinian demands, such as Jerusalem and the “Right of Return,” are the real obstacles to peace. This large consensus about Palestinian intransigence allows for significant social mobilization and resilience in protracted conflict. Israelis will go once more to war with a feeling of “Ein Breira” (no choice) and are likely to win that engagement as well.

Large parts of the hypocritical world may indeed see Israel as the culprit for the failure of the negotiations and for a new round of Israeli-Palestinian violence. But such negative attitudes do not necessarily lead to international isolation. Public statements and the voting record of states at the UN – an ineffective, morally bankrupt organization – are not indicative of the true nature of interstate relations.

National interests dictate state actions, and in most cases bilateral relations with Israel are hardly affected by the ups and downs in the peace talks with the Palestinians. For example, the rising powers India and China have expanded their bilateral ties with Jerusalem because it is in their interest to engage a successful state such as Israel. Nowadays, when the Iranian threat dominates the region, Arab Sunni states such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, who are exasperated with American behavior, are in the same strategic boat as Israel. Generally, the Middle East – especially today, while in the throes of a colossal political, social, and economic crisis – is hardly paying attention to the Palestinian issue. In the Caucasus and in Central Asia, Muslim Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are friendly to Israel.

Moreover, isolation of Israel is unlikely because of the large existing reservoirs of support for Israel in many quarters. Canada and Australia are ruled by governments most responsive to Israeli concerns. Even in Western Europe, concerns about Muslim immigration and foreign aid place the Palestinians in a problematic spot. Above all, two-thirds of Americans have consistently favored Israel over the past two decades, which translates into Congressional support. The US is Israel’s most important ally and even the Obama administration has maintained the strong support and cooperation in the military sphere.

But the prism of the Obama administration on the Middle East and global affairs is fundamentally flawed. An American foreign policy that supports the Muslim Brotherhood, estranges its traditional Arab allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, allows Iran to get closer to the bomb, sees in Turkey’s Erdo?an a great friend of the West, and insists that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be ended in nine months is dangerous and does more damage that good. Similar complaints about poor US political judgment are abundantly voiced by America’s friends in Asian and Eastern European capitals.

It is the enemies of the US who rejoice in President Barack Obama’s foreign policy, and who relish in America’s perceived decline in world affairs.

Ironically, at this historic juncture, even an isolationist America would be a better alternative for those that want the good guys to win. Therefore, dear President Obama, please do us a favor: save some money and keep Kerry at home.

Prof. Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, is a professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family

November 10, 2013 | 89 Comments »
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39 Comments / 89 Comments

  1. Why Blame John Kerry?

    He did not initiate the rejection of Israel’s rights to Judea and Samaria.

    For more than four decades the International Committee of the Red Cross has promoted the canard that Jewish communities (“settlements”) in areas which the IDF conquered in 1967 are violations of the Fourth Geneva Convention and, therefore, are illegal under international law.

    Because the ICRC is the official “guardian” of the Convention, their word is considered “law.”

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/14109#.UoZ4r3_bzfg

  2. Bernard my buddy! The discussion was already dead by the time i finished posting, i thought the WP would be like the Telegraph or the Guardian, attracting lots of comments, but this one attracted only 113. I am glad you came though, even if your comment disappeared. I didn’t answer you immediately because i was in the process of debating someone with a very high view of himself (i was trying to make it less!).

    bernard ross Said:

    I do not expect to change the minds of those anti semites who masquerade as anti zionists.

    Me neither. I just hope that if the discussion attracts lots of people, then some who are not dedicatedly anti-Israel might be persuaded. Audience or actual commenters.

    bernard ross Said:

    I prefer to piss on them when I post and let them think what they want, I did that on my post that appeared to go through.

    If you were too ad hominem, the moderators might have deleted your comment for this reason, i mean it might not be an accident that the comment disappeared.

    bernard ross Said:

    I am more interested in convincing Jews to wake up to the swindles because the greatest obstruction is from Jews ignorance and acceptance of swindles.

    I agree, Jews should be the primary target market. But i don’t know where to comment to recalcitrant Jews, all the Jewish blogs i know are pro-Israel, and the anti-Israel one i know of (Mondoweiss) banned me – without even going ad hominem!

    bernard ross Said:

    When there are muslim troll arguments on Jewish and Israeli behavior I begin by addressing the head chopping, throat slitting, honor killing, christian slaughtering muslims and say their accusations are a cover for muslim behavior a red herring. I seek to point out the absurdity of their accusations by juxtaposing Israeli and jewish behavior with the behavior of others. I speak to who they really are rather than the BS arguments they present.

    That’s substantive answer to the ones you mention, i agree with the juxtaposition. Like “why complain for Israeli X, while there is Muslim 100 X present?”.

  3. @ dionissis mitropoulos: Hi, I went there and started posting but then it disappeared. something was wrong. the article was non descript and the posters were as usual. In my own view many of the posters against israel are trolls who should be ridiculed and despised because they lie. I do not expect to change the minds of those anti semites who masquerade as anti zionists. I prefer to piss on them when I post and let them think what they want, I did that on my post that appeared to go through. A poster said the only solution was a nuclear free zone and I ridiculed him with laughter saying that Israel is unlikely to trust their future to the europeans and arabs. I am more interested in convincing Jews to wake up to the swindles because the greatest obstruction is from Jews ignorance and acceptance of swindles. When there are muslim troll arguments on Jewish and Israeli behavior I begin by addressing the head chopping, throat slitting, honor killing, christian slaughtering muslims and say their accusations are a cover for muslim behavior a red herring. I seek to point out the absurdity of their accusations by juxtaposing Israeli and jewish behavior with the behavior of others. I speak to who they really are rather than the BS arguments they present.

  5. @ honeybee:

    I’ve been busy collecting links that can help to defend my Israeli pals (not Pals!). Incredibly time-consuming. (Ok, to be honest, i’m mostly doing it for myself, it’s become a habit).

    But i have not forgotten the hospitable Jewish Bee, and i thank her for her warm welcome

  11. yamit82 Said:

    In five years cars will be run on hydrogen fuel cells and in 10 years oil will be priced adjusted for inflation about $15-20 at the well head.

    When that happens, soldier, I will be at your door begging for a crust of bread, Challah, I hope.

  17. yamit82 Said:

    Empires have fallen because of sex…Never over oil.

    Oil are market are fairly new,Jezabel would have a made a good CEO for Exxon or Harliburton. Bathseba no dummy either,[ put her son on the throne] just no cumbustion engines.

    yamit82 Said:

    IT’S THOSE DAMN JEWS

    Ya bettcha,cowboy.

  19. honeybee Said:

    Oil Darlin, oil makes the world go round and round. Not women , not sex OIL

    Empires have fallen because of sex…Never over oil.

    In five years cars will be run on hydrogen fuel cells and in 10 years oil will be priced adjusted for inflation about $15-20 at the well head.

    Too cheap for Fracking Break even point of Fracking is about $45-$50 Oil companies need Caspian Caucus oil. Problem is countries are landlocked and that’s why America fought so long in Afghanistan…. They needed a friendly pro American government to run oil and gas piplines to Pakistan for transhipment. Bad Bet. They make too much money from growing and producing dope to be cowed by American oil companies and they the Pathan (Israelite tribes)have never been defeated and still haven’t. That’s American arrogance at play. IT’S THOSE DAMN JEWS AGAIN!

  21. yamit82 Said:

    What if the object of the threat is weaker or as corrupt as the one who is threatening????

    A weak man gives into threats. A strong person faces threats, unflichingly. A strong man keeps cool under fire, verbal or otherwise. See Rudyard Kipling

    Cater is a weak man and if Begum gave in to threats,he is weak also. Obama is weak as is Kerry. I know a strong man, they makes my lile”ol heart beat faster.

  22. honeybee Said:

    I have found that men threaten out of weakness. Powerfull men never threaten,they don’t need to, their very force presense is sufficent.

    What if the object of the threat is weaker or as corrupt as the one who is threatening????

    Carter arguably was the weakest most incompetent POTUS in modern times yet he got an even weaker Israeli PM to agree to withdraw from all of Sinai and uproot tens of established Israeli towns and settlements. A price we are still paying for. Begin was the worst of the worst of all Israeli PM’s and we have had some very bad ones.

  23. bernard ross Said:

    Israel will be the only one left with the US (maybe)

    Being Americas only ally in the ME would have paid us dividends in previous administrations however temporary but not with Obama. I think he is immune to the reality and consequences of his policies or he is deliberately seeking the fall of America as an economic and military power and will do what he can to bring Israel down as well. BB is the only head of state that is willing to let Obama shit on him and then thank him for the privilege of being shit on by the Black guy in the WH.

    Kerry now as opposed Hilary Rotten Clinton, says he is now willing to work closely with Lieberman after Lieberman made his condescending speech today asking that Israeli diplomats and ministers including BB lower the diplomatic tone and Temp. “We need America” he said!!!!! In office one day and he is now the great white Israeli hope of Kerry and Obama? Bribe or blackmail? Both? Or is BB behind it?

  24. yamit82 Said:

    Kerry’s threat of greater international isolation

    I have found that men threaten out of weakness. Powerfull men never threaten,they don’t need to, their very force presense is sufficent.

  26. Taking precarious steps in the P5+1 talks – Alarabiya

    Interestingly, the French may be acting as Saudi Arabia’s representative at the P5+1 talks. Paris, of course, is regaining its firm position throughout the Middle East North Africa region and specifically in regards to the Levant question and the Iran file. When Riyadh rejected a non-voting seat at the United Nations Security Council, Paris quickly backed the kingdom. Now, at the P5+1, France may be representing Saudi views. Is this a coincidence?


  28. With friends like this . . .

    Israelis and Americans are going through a couple of bad patches with Barack Obama.

    Now the Obamans are returning to their posture–more assertively antagonistic than those of previous administrations– that Israeli construction in Jewish neighborhoods of Jerusalem are among the “settlements” that are illegal and a barrier to peace.

    Kerry’s threat of greater international isolation suggests that his administration will join the isolation, or at least not oppose it. Perhaps Obama himself sees merit in the Palestinian campaign of boycotts, disvestment and sanctions.

    An explicit charge of duplicity focuses on Iran. We’re hearing and not believing for the nth time the presidential promise that Iran will never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Now we’re also hearing that Obama and Kerry described for Israeli officials the tough demands they would make of the Iranians, and that there would be no lessening of sanctions without an appropriate Iranian action. However, they had already offered the Iranians much softer terms and had begun to lessen the administration of sanctions before the onset of negotiations.

    Weekend meetings between Kerry and Netanyahu ended with descriptions that they were “very tough.” The participants did not slam the door to the meeting room as they left it, but they were pointed in avoiding any photo op or description of what had happened. Unnamed ranking Israelis came as close as they ever had to saying that the Americans lied to them. Netanyahu has been explicit is saying time and again that what the Americans are offering to Iran is “very bad . . . a very, very bad deal,” and that “Israel would not consider itself bound to such an agreement.”

    Would Israel actually tip over the table with a massive attack while talks are still ongoing?

    The threat is out there. Perhaps the failure of this round of talks–despite predictions of imminent success–reflects the role of Netanyahu as bad cop on American and/or European governments. No Israeli is actually in the room where negotiations occur, but repeated threats toward Israel by key Iranians gives Netanyahu something like the status of an observer who might become active.

    Saudi Arabia has jumped in on the side of its Israeli ally, warning western governments that they will pay a heavy price if they do not sober up to the Iranian reality.

    read more

  29. reply 10 to yamit in moderation (when Ted goes to sleep the moderation software runs amok, and nothing can be done until Ted awakes). I wrote:
    I think that Lieberman is either defusing the accusations on his appointment that he is “explosive” by appearing now to be “reasonable” OR the sword of Damocles is held over Israels head by Obama(the second explains the E1 halt and the attempt to halt other construction)

  30. yamit82 Said:

    Lieberman: Israel needs US in current global climate

    I think that Lieberman is either defusing the accusations on his appointment that he is “explosive” by appearing now to be “reasonable” OR the sword of Damocles is held over Israels head by Obama(the second explains the E1 halt and the attempt to halt other construction) (Extortion by the US/EU)

  33. yamit82 Said:

    As Israel’s Amit Ivry wins silver medal at FINA Swimming World Cup 2013 in Doha, her name appears next to white flag

    thats so typical its almost amusing!!!!!!!!!!!

  39. @ bernard ross:

    Lieberman: Israel needs US in current global climate

    Recently-returned foreign minister softens Israel rhetoric, says relations with US are ‘a cornerstone and nothing will change that’

    “Israel’s relations with the United States are a cornerstone and without them we cannot make our way in the current global climate,” said Avigdor Lieberman a day after being sworn in as foreign minister.


    Good cop Bad cop or is it a direct challenge to BB?     Yamit!