T. Belman. Very disappointing. Netanyahu better know what he is doing.. He must be confident that he will reach 61 seats particularly if he crushes her.
According to Channel 12, after dithering over how to handle the struggling Jewish Home leader, the opposition chief now aims to deprive her of even ‘a single right-wing voter’
By TOI STAFF
Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with then justice minister Ayelet Shaked in the Knesset on December 21, 2016. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)[/caption]
In the final stretch of the campaign ahead of the November 1 election, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to go hard after Jewish Home and its leader Ayelet Shaked and ensure she does not pass the electoral threshold, according to a Sunday report.
Netanyahu’s plan is to ensure “that Shaked is not left with a single right-wing voter,” Channel 12 news reported on the thinking in the Likud leader’s inner circle.
The report said the coming days will see Likud launch an all-out assault on the interior minister with the goal of voiding her support on the right.
Shaked has been seen as a conundrum for Netanyahu as he seeks to secure at least 61 seats in the Knesset and ensure his return to power. Though she has said she will back him for prime minister, Shaked and Jewish Home are polling far below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Still, she has so far refused to quit the race. Likud fears the loss of critical right-wing votes if her party is knocked out, and has been debating whether to try to help her past the threshold or to deprive her of all support.
According to Channel 12, the party has now settled on the latter tactic.
The Netanyahu-led right-wing religious bloc (comprised of Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit) is currently polling at around 59-60 seats, and it is likely that the election could be determined by one or two seats.
Earlier this month Likud sources told the network that Netanyahu may come to regret efforts to sideline Shaked, as she may be the opposition leader’s only chance of forming a right-wing coalition of 61 Knesset seats.
A number of unnamed sources within the party said Netanyahu “is making mistakes in managing the [political] campaign and one of them is the conduct surrounding Shaked.”
Shaked herself has said she is Netanyahu’s only chance at winning back the premiership.
Shaked is Netanyahu’s “only chance to reach 61 [seats],” the sources told Channel 12 of the Jewish Home leader, who has served as interior minister since last year in a short-lived, broad government coalition formed by Naftali Bennett who then headed the Yamina party, with Shaked as his number two.
Bennett handed control of Yamina to Shaked after announcing he would take a break from politics following his coalition’s collapse this summer. Bennett serves as alternate prime minister in the caretaker government with Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid as prime minister, as per their coalition agreement.
Shaked briefly teamed up with the Derech Eretz faction to form the Zionist Spirit alliance, but the platform collapsed in mid-September amid dire polling and disagreements over Shaked’s willingness to potentially sit in a hard-right government led by Netanyahu.
As leader of the Jewish Home party she has requested forgiveness for joining the broad coalition last year and pledged to back Netanyahu for premier.
The Yamina party was badly damaged by its time in power. Bennett’s decision to partner with left-wing parties and the Islamist Ra’am faction in the coalition last year gave Israel a functioning government after a series of inconclusive elections, but some of the right-wing party’s voters were unhappy with the move, and three of its Knesset members quit the coalition.
Netanyahu is “letting family pressure decide,” the Likud sources told Channel 12 on Sunday, hinting at the long-rumored bad blood between Sara Netanyahu and Shaked, who began her career as a staffer for Netanyahu in the Prime Minister’s Office.
Sara Netanyahu is said to have vetoed efforts to bring Shaked into the Likud party in the 2019 elections. In bombshell recordings aired in May 2021, Shaked described Netanyahu and his wife Sara as “dictators” and “tyrants” with a “lust for power.”
@Edgar G. The only Freecell I’m familiar with is the solitaire app that has been around since the 80s, always popular with office workers. I’m quite good at it.
@Sebastien
That’s what losing free cells does for you. You find they are not free and must be paid for.
@Edgar G. Over my head I’m afraid. I’m reminded of “The New Math” song (1965) Tom Lehrer.
https://youtu.be/W6OaYPVueW4
@Sebastien (whispering)
If Netanyahu loses a seat-or even 2- by telling Likudniks to vote Jewish Home, the gain of 4 will be greater than the loss of 1 or 2. And Shaked should be reinstated as Justice Minister to carry on he undeniably great previous work.
2nd Grade Arithmetic. Maybe 1st Grade. I knew this before I ever went to school aged 3. Too much Free Cell, loses Free Cells….maybe?? …
for some.-not all…..!!….
Unless a show of unity would have been enough to bring out those missing voters, the Right would still have remained at 60, however.
More than 25 percent of Israeli citizens don’t vote. How many are Jews? How many of those would vote for the Right?
This is what should have happened but was blocked by Likud MK Miri Regev. From May:
Bibi isn’t being vindictive, clearly. He’s playing the only cards he has.
I was unsuccessful in finding the percentage of Jews who vote, though it’s true some Arabs voted for Likud.
That I was able to find:
Analysis of Arab Voting Patterns in the Elections for the 24th Knesset
https://dayan.org/content/analysis-arab-voting-patterns-elections-24th-knesset
And if neither side can form a government, Lapid remains PM until the next election can be held, right?
The only way out I can see is to figure out how to motivate right-wing voters who have never voted before or normally don’t vote to come out and vote.
That involves determining three things:
a) who and where are they?
b) What motivates them and stops them from voting? What will inspire their trust?
c) Logistics, getting them to the polls.
It’s how both Bibi and Obama won in the past. The existing voter pool is clearly frozen in place.
I think Shaked and G’vir are or should be a side-show. People who will vote for them are not likely to change their minds.
The focus must be on appealing to new voters, to people who feel they have been ignored, to focus on issues, policies.
And then to find the right slogans and make them catchy. Economics and bread and butter issues are also the elephant in the room.
If Netanyahu tells some of his voters to vote for Shaked, won’t he lose the seats that go to her and thus remain at 60? Today, she’s polling at 1.9% which is slightly better than yesterday’s 1.7% but still way below 3.25% and anyway, for all we know, the slight increase came at the expense of one or more of the other parties in the rightwing camp.
Effectively, nothing has changed. The Right has been stuck at one mandate short for a very, very long time and everybody is still at musical chairs.
The good news is Balad also fails to meet the threshold at 1.4% and Ra’am only has 4 seats.
Would the left be able to make it to 61 with just Ra’am? Is there any right-wing party that would bolt to the Left like last time?
Today’s Arutz Sheva
If Netanyahu fails to get a majority, don’t rule out the Left forming a majority with the two Arab parties. Where is it written than the Joint List won’t join or the left won’t invite them?
READER_
You have put “polling data” in it’s exact place in this and all other elections. The questions are crafted so that answers are chuted into what the poll operators want to hear, and yes, so as to influence the wider public.
-I feel an after election questioning of emerging voters is a far better indication.
Sebastien-
O.K. I’ll stop shouting even though I wasn’t shouting. Merely capitalising the name to give it some importance. I’ve always done it, for many years now, and you are the only one who objects and tries to “reprimand” me.
Small potatoes I think.
I know NOTHING of computer speak. Never once used the term and heard it only a few times. I never knew anything about it and I couldn’t care less .
You seem to have been taking lessons from Reader,
AND (not shouting) I saw the statistics maven and posted a response. Peloni had already laid out exactly my feelings about it, and I agreed with him. And I added a bit more. If you look at the comments under the article you’ll see my post. I feel she’s wrong about the PM having limited capability to push votes to Shaked.
When Smotrich and Ben Gvire decided to split their joint Party ties, and run independently, both going after the same voters, Netanyahu had NO (not shouting) difficulty in persuading them to re-unite. So getting votes to Shaked, a true Right Winger, would be child’s play for him.
Especially when it would mean 4 extra seats giving him a definite and stable Government, so that he can undo all the damage caused by Gantz and Lapid.
Let ME (not shouting) ask YOU (not shouting)…….did you see in today’s Arutz, the appeal by Lapid to the Arab buddies for votes, promising that there will be NO (whispering) Jews allowed to rapy allowed on Har Habayit.
Utterly disgusting and I hope toxic for his chances in the election. Assuming it’s not fake news.
@Sebastien Zorn
These statistical calculation are made on the basis of questionnaires which are in turn based on “representative samples” which means that a number of people (larger than 30) is questioned about their preferences.
It is common knowledge that questionnaires are the worst way to do research because the results depend on the quality and quantity of the sample and the way the questions themselves are worded.
I wouldn’t rely too heavily on these statistical studies at this point.
Polling of the voters is used as a marketing tool to influence voters.
@Peloni, Edgar G. Did you see the article Ted posted by a statistician who writes that a vote for Shaked is a vote thrown away, that statistically she has a 50/50 chance of passing the electoral threshold by a quarter of a point, which she says in practice means none at all?
@Edgar G And why do you keep capitalizing my name? I presume that you know that in internet-speak, All caps means shouting?
That “right wing” block is completely fake.
Netanyahu has been a TSS supporter for decades.
Ben Gvir hasn’t done anything constructive for decades, all he is capable of is cheap provocations.
Smotrich is somewhat better but he claimed recently that Jewishness is determined by religion only (this is really “great news” for the vast majority of the potential olim), and, tell me please, what have the religious zionists done lately other than march with flags in Jerusalem to spite the Arabs.
The Hareidi parties will sell themselves to the highest bidder (whoever promises them the most money and perks for their “sector”).
Likud is Netanyahu’s fist, he uses the party to get rid of any politicians who he thinks might be his potential rivals.
All this “wing” talk is a divide-and-rule tactic.
Voters should unite behind policies, not behind politicians, and for that they should study the politicians actual record and not just admire the politicians’ English skills and how well they defeat their rivals.