New Study Finds 28 Million Americans Likely Infected by Coronavirus —

Puts US Mortality Rate at 0.1% Just Like the Seasonal Flu


A new report by Justin Silverman and Alex Washberne on COVID-19 and featured in The Economist finds that the coronvirus is widespread in the US.

The authors argue that 28 million Americans have or have had the coronavirus.

Justin Silverman@inschool4life

Our work (@Alex_Washburne and I) on COVID-19 has been featured in @TheEconomist. I am extremely impressed by @DanRosenheck who wrote the piece.

Key points: We find strong evidence that COVID-19 is widespread (>28 million) in the US but don’t panic.
Why a study showing that covid-19 is everywhere is good news

If millions of people were infected weeks ago without dying, the virus must be less deadly than official data suggest

If this study is accurate then the mortality rate of the coronavirus is 0.1%
Via Andrew Bostom.

Andrew Bostom@andrewbostom<

@AlexBerenson “We find strong evidence that COVID-19 is widespread (>28 million) in the US but don’t panic.”
Yes. Reduces case-fatality ratio to ~0.1% 

Justin Silverman@inschool4life

Our work (@Alex_Washburne and I) on COVID-19 has been featured in @TheEconomist. I am extremely impressed by @DanRosenheck who wrote the piece.

Key points: We find strong evidence that COVID-19 is widespread (>28 million) in the US but don’t panic. 

If this is true then the COVID-19 is no more dangerous than the seasonal flu this season.

We updated our numbers below.
We included Brazil to show the country has less deaths than the US and chose to keep their economy open.

* * * * * * * * * *

REMEMBER: WHO leader, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, stoked a global panic when he claimed the COVID-19 had a 3.4% mortality rate and then compared that to the annual estimated flu mortality rate of 0.1%.

It’s not clear if he yet understands his mistake.
Regardless, it sent the global community into a collective economic meltdown.

We don’t know how horrible the economic damage will be but we know it will be huge.
And we are still nowhere near the total flu deaths we see each year.

And now it looks like the WHO, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, and the global “experts” completely failed in their predictions and talking points!

April 14, 2020 | 13 Comments » | 840 views

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13 Comments / 13 Comments

  1. “Health Ministry failing to provide public with life-saving information’
    Senior health experts are lambasting the Health Ministry for failing to collect, analyze or make accessible vital information that could save lives and help decision-makers formulate a proper exit strategy from the coronavirus pandemic.

    by Maytal Yasur Biet-Or Published on 04-14-2020 09:20 Last modified: 04-14-2020 09:24
    ‘Health Ministry failing to provide public with life-saving information’
    The lack of information the ministry provides could impedeo the exit strategy policies from the coronavirus crisis and even pose a risk to the public’s health, official says |

    How many people on ventilators are under the age of 60? How many critically ill patients live in Jerusalem or Bnei Brak? How many of them also suffer from diabetes or high blood pressure? Is there a need for special restrictions on people with these existing conditions?

    At least based on the figures the Health Ministry is providing it isn’t possible to get answers to all of these questions, and according to a certified source, it’s possible they don’t exist at all.

    Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter

    A former senior official in the Health Ministry, meanwhile, is leveling unprecedented criticism over the lack of information the ministry provides, explaining it could pose a detriment to the exit strategy policies from the coronavirus crisis and even pose a risk to the public’s health.

    Prof. Tammy Shohat, an expert epidemiologist who up until a year ago headed the Israel Center for Disease Control at the Health Ministry, said, “Specifically now, when accessible information is necessary for the saving of lives — it remains inaccessible. It’s hard to believe, but the access to information, apparently, is also restricted for officials in other government ministries, including units within the Health Ministry whose job it is.”

    Shohat wants to make it possible for researchers and the general public to receive the information in order to develop models for exiting the quarantine and better understanding of the situation.

    “This is an intolerable reality,” she wrote in a position statement for the “Civilian Cabinet,” a forum of experts, students, and the wider public. “As long as there’s no information on the ages of the patients on ventilators, including their pre-existing conditions and places of residence, it will be hard to impossible to create a statistics-driven alternative to the decisions that have been made.”

    She continued: “Sharing information won’t just strengthen the faith in the Health Ministry’s leadership, it will also help them make more educated decisions moving forward. Allowing many researchers to analyze the information can bring us all closer to a successful solution. The information needs to be disseminated among the experts in the ministry itself.” This from today’s Israel Hayom. This is a major problem not only in Israel but also in the United States and eevery other country. World governmentshave declared a “pandemic” without having a clue about what’s goving on. Or if they do, they are not telling us.

  2. “…panic, hysteria, and overtime, hunt for the guilty, punishment of the innocent…”
    The mortality rate depends on which ratio you use when calculating it.
    For example (2019-2020 CDC flu season burden estimates):
    1) Mortality rate (deaths/flu hospitalizations) 5.9%-8.3%
    2) Mortality rate (deaths/flu medical visits) 0.13%-0.24%
    3) Mortality rate (deaths/flu illnesses) 0.062%-0.11%

    REMEMBER: WHO leader, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, stoked a global panic when he claimed the COVID-19 had a 3.4% mortality rate and then compared that to the annual estimated flu mortality rate of 0.1%.

    The above quote is most likely comparing apples and oranges. At the very least, the author should have found out first how the 3.4% figure was arrived at by the WHO.
    If you consider that most of the hospitalized with the flu are most likely the “high risk” cases and, as the CDC claims, 50-70% of the annual flu deaths are the elderly, then the “health experts” have been certainly barking up the wrong tree for the last several months.

  3. @ Reader: Good points, Reader. One thing we don’t know at this point is how many of the reported “coronavirus” cases and deaths are really flue viruses and deaths. We need a lot more data, and a lot more candor from the CDC, WHO, etc. in reporting it to the public.

  4. If C-19 kills you, you’re 100% dead. That’s the statistic that counts. This is not baseball statistics we’re talking about life and death
    Secondly, it’s a novel virus; we don’t know its long term effects nor if it confers immunity long term or mutatates periodically thus reoccurring, possibly annually. If it passes to domestic animals, like cats, ihey become a near danger to infants and are a reservoir whereas influenza is carried by swine which are an uncommon household pet. These commentators are not college biology smart and certainly not epidemiologists MD.
    When I was young, old women used to keep birds as pets and these ladies died of psiticosis. Modernly, the commercial pet bird population has been rid of that disease. We may need to destroy our pet cats and certainly feral cats will be a major danger as a reservoir of C-19. Other domesticated animals may also need to go to the slaughter, including valuable food sources.
    Heed this warning in your calculations. Where do you think syphilis came from? Sheep! There’s no condom for C-19, it’s aerosolized.

  5. @ deanblake:
    “If C-19 kills you, you’re 100% dead.” Obviously. Like from any other cause.
    If you’d actually carefully read my comment, you would have understood my point that one cannot interpret statistical data correctly until one knows how it is derived.
    The data quoted by the media makes no sense whatsoever until you have an explanation of how it was derived.
    I don’t like it when so-called “journalists” quote data they don’t understand (or understand and purposely do not explain) in order to push their readers’ emotional buttons (doing this is the definition of propaganda and demagoguery).
    Every flu virus is a mutated virus. That’s why any flu vaccine effectiveness is 20-40% by the time it’s developed, the virus has already mutated.
    The other stuff that you wrote I won’t waste my time on.
    And next time, please, read and try to understand the meaning of what others write before freaking out.

  6. “Iceland is allowing everyone in the country to be tested for the coronavirus. The government says it spent years perfecting its approach.
    Kelly McLaughlin Apr 2, 2020, 5:44 PM

    Iceland, an island country home to about 364,000 people, has taken a different approach to the coronavirus than many other countries.
    The government allows testing for anyone who wants it. Iceland is also working to identify people who have the virus quickly so it can isolate them.
    The country has not gone on lockdown during the pandemic.
    Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

    As countries around the world try to stop the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, Iceland is taking an unusual approach.

    Instead of testing selectively, the country is allowing everyone to be tested and isolating people quickly if they test positive.

    Iceland, an island home to about 364,000 people, confirmed its first COVID-19 test in late February when a resident of the country tested positive upon returning from a trip to Italy, according to The Washington Post. Since then, the total case count has risen to 1,319 across Iceland, according to the country’s coronavirus website. The country has had two COVID-19-related deaths.

    Coronavirus cases account for 0.36% of the nation’s population, which is much higher than the US, where cases account for 0.06% of the population.

    Iceland’s case count could be so proportionately high because they have taken a radical approach to testing. Even people without symptoms may take a test.

    According to Iceland’s government website, about 20,930 people, or about 6% of the population, have been tested. As of Wednesday, the US had conducted about 1.1 million tests, which accounts for about 0.34% of the US population.

    Iceland teamed up with a biotechnology company to help run COVID-19 testing
    In order to expand its testing abilities, Iceland’s government teamed up with Reykjavik-based deCODE Genetics, which is a subsidiary of the US-based biotechnology company Amgen.

    Data from the country has shown that 50% of the people who tested positive for COVID-19 in Iceland were asymptomatic, which confirmed concerns that asymptomatic people could be spreading the virus.

    Along with voluntary and random testing, Iceland is also working to quickly identify individuals who have come in contact with others who tested positive for COVID-19, and is urging those people to isolate.

    The country has even put together a team of detectives to ID potential coronavirus carriers, NBC News reported.

    “Every second somebody is getting infected, so obviously we want as few people infected as we possibly can,” detective Gestur Palmason told NBC News. “As quickly as we can, we have to reach everyone that might have been in contact with someone who’s positive, and try to stop them before they get in contact with more people.”

    Reykjavik Iceland
    Maja Hitij/Bongarts/Getty Images
    The work in Iceland has helped researchers pinpoint areas where the virus first started to spread in the country, deCODE’s founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN.

    “We can determine the geographic origin of the virus in every single [virus] in Iceland,” he said.

    Iceland hasn’t locked down the country like others have
    Iceland has not implemented lockdowns in the country, though it has banned gatherings of more than 100 people.

    The country’s Directorate of Health told CNN that tracing the virus to its origin and the country’s mass testing allowed the government to hold off imposing a lockdown.

    “There is also another reason, no less important, we have pursued a very aggressive policy of quarantine for individuals — suspected to be at risk of having contracted the virus — for much longer and at a higher scale than most other countries we are aware of,” the organization told CNN.

    Thorolfur Guðnason, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, told BuzzFeed News that Iceland’s small population allows the government to have higher testing capabilities.

    He said the mass testing is “intended to gather insight into the actual prevalence of the virus in the community, as most countries are most exclusively testing symptomatic individuals at this time.”

    From Business Insider’s April 2 issue. I think the Icelandic approach deserves study and perhaps imitation by the U.S. Although our population is vastly greater than Iceland’s our GNP is also vastly greater. Might be better to spend billions on widespread testing rather than the trillions we are now spending on “fiscal stimulus.”

  7. @ deanblake:
    If you are going to kill all the cats, why not all the other pets?
    How about all the domestic cattle (you can never be sure).
    Plants would be also suspect, especially fruit which is picked by (germ-laden) hand.
    I mean, if the economy is destroyed, what’s the point of having any joy in life or even food?
    How about dogs, hamsters, monkeys, birds, and (YES) pet pigs?
    How about all the infected asymptomatic humans? THEY ARE THE CARRIERS OF THE PLAGUE!!!
    This is your argument carried to absurdity.

  8. “Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days
    Isaac Ben-Israel, who is not a medical expert, says analysis worldwide shows new cases peaking after about 40 days, slams economic closures; leading doctor dismisses his claims

    Today, 4:47 pm 15
    Isaac Ben-Israel (Photo credit: Courtesy)
    Isaac Ben-Israel (Photo credit: Courtesy)
    A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.

    Prof Isaac Ben-Israel, head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University and the chairman of the National Council for Research and Development, told Israel’s Channel 12 (Hebrew) Monday night that research he conducted with a fellow professor, analyzing the growth and decline of new cases in countries around the world, showed repeatedly that “there’s a set pattern” and “the numbers speak for themselves.”

    While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.

    Prof. Gabi Barbash, a hospital director and the former Health Ministry director general, insisted in a bitter TV exchange that Ben-Israel is mistaken, and that the death tolls would have been far higher if Israel and other countries had not taken the steps they did.

    Gabi Barbash, Director General at Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, April 7, 2020. (Channel 12)
    But Ben-Israel said the figures — notably from countries, such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Sweden, which did not take such radical measures to shutter their economies — proved his point. (He also posted a Hebrew paper to this effect on Facebook, with graphs showing the trajectories.)

    When Barbash cited New York as ostensible proof that Ben-Israel was mistaken, Ben-Israel noted the latest indications from New York were precisely in line with his statistics that indicate daily new cases figures peaking and starting to fall after about 40 days.

    Asked to explain the phenomenon, Ben-Israel, who also heads Israel’s Space Agency, later said: “I have no explanation. There are all kinds of speculations. Maybe it’s related to climate, or the virus has a life-span of its own.”

    He said the policy of lockdowns and closures was a case of “mass hysteria.” Simple social distancing would be sufficient, he said.

    If the lockdowns instituted in Israel and elsewhere were not causing such immense economic havoc, there wouldn’t be a problem with them, he said. “But you shouldn’t be closing down the entire country when most of the population is not at high risk.”

    Asked to explain why the virus had caused such a high death toll in countries such as Italy, he said the Italian health service was already overwhelmed. “It collapsed in 2017 because of the flu,” he said.

    Barbash, speaking after Ben-Israel had left the studio, insisted that “we’re going to be living with the coronavirus for the next year.”

    He added: “I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology — determine when we lift the lockdown.” From today’s TimesofIsrael.

  9. “The global economy is expected to suffer its worst year since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the International Monetary Fund forecast Tuesday.

    Beaten down by the coronavirus outbreak, the world economy will shrink by 3.0 per cent during 2020 — far worse than its 0.1 per cent dip in the Great Recession year of 2009 — before rebounding in 2021 with 5.8 per cent growth.

    In its latest outlook, the IMF expects economic contractions this year of 5.9 per cent in the United States, with a rebound to 4.7 per cent growth in 2021 under the Fund’s best-case scenario. Euro zone economies will contract by 7.5 per cent in 2020.

    China, where the pandemic originated, is expected to eke out 1.2 per cent growth this year. The world’s second-biggest economy, which had gone into lockdown, has begun to open up well before other countries.

    A quarter of Michigan’s workers are now

    While acknowledging that prospects for a rebound next year are clouded by uncertainty the bleak assessment represents a breathtaking downgrade by the IMF.

    In its previous forecast in January, before COVID-19 emerged as a grave threat to public health and economic growth worldwide, the international lending organization had forecast moderate global growth of 3.3 per cent this year.

    But far-reaching measures to contain the pandemic — lockdowns, business shutdowns, social distancing and travel restrictions — have suddenly brought economic activity to a near-standstill across much of the world.

    ‘It is very likely that this year the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago,’ the IMF said in its report. ‘The Great Lockdown, as one might call it, is projected to shrink global growth dramatically.’ ” From April 14 Daily Mail.

  10. Zero New Coronavirus Cases In New York, NBC News Says
    By Eric A. Blair
    Published April 14, 2020 at 9:23am
    There were no new cases of coronavirus in New York, NBC News reported on Tuesday, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo urged residents to continue following guidelines to stem the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

    Cuomo appeared on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” to talk about how the curve has been flattened in the state when the network flashed on the screen data attributed to NBC News: 196,583 CASES, 10,056 DEATHS, NO NEW CASES REPORTED TODAY, the Daily Caller reported.” From today’s Gateway Pundit.

  11. Doctors are learning different ways of dealing with Covid-19 patients who have difficulty breathing. These are very severely sick patients.

    Doctors Finding Effective Alternatives to Ventilators

    Doctors say they are not rushing to intubate coronavirus patients as quickly as they were a month ago.

    Many New York doctors are reducing the use of ventilators and turning to other methods to help patients breathe, The New York Times reports.

    “What we thought we knew, we don’t know,” Dr. Nile Cemalovic, an intensive care physician at Lincoln Medical Center in the Bronx, told the newspaper.

    Instead of sedating COVID-19 patients with low oxygen levels and hooking them up to mechanical ventilators, many doctors are keeping patients conscious and moving. They have patients rolling over in bed, reclining in chairs and breathing on their own with some additional oxygen.

    The method is called proning and it involves a patient rolling onto their sides or on their bellies while receiving oxygen. The goal is to increase lung function by keeping patients off of their backs.

    The number of patients being intubated is increasing at a rate of about 21 per day, which is down from about 300 per day at the end of March, according to The New York Times.

    Some doctors have started using special massage mattresses designed for pregnant women that feature cutouts to ease the load on the belly and chest. Other techniques doctors have tried include using CPAP breathing machines, normally used to help people with sleep apnea.

    Several doctors agree that the proning technique doesn’t work well in older patients and that some critically ill patients will still require a ventilator.

    full article at

  12. 44 Year Old Healthy Male Doctor almost died from Covid-19

    Emergency room doctor, near death with coronavirus, saved after experimental treatment.


    As critically ill, elderly patients streamed into his emergency room outside Seattle, Dr. Ryan Padgett quickly came to understand how deadly COVID-19 could be.

    Of the first two dozen or so he saw, not a single one survived.

    It took longer for Padgett and his colleagues at EvergreenHealth Medical Center — the first hospital in the country to treat multiple coronavirus patients — to learn how easily the disease could spread.

    At first, the medical workers wore only surgical masks and gloves. Later, they were told to wear respirators and other gear, but the equipment was unfamiliar and Padgett couldn’t be certain he put it on and took it off correctly each time.

    A 6-foot-3, 250-pound former football star who played for Northwestern in the 1996 Rose Bowl, he wasn’t fazed by much.

    “To worry about myself, as a 44-year-old healthy man, didn’t even cross my mind,” he said in an interview Monday.

    But on March 12, with his wedding day two months away, Padgett became the patient.

    Soon after being admitted to his own hospital with a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, he was placed on a ventilator. Five days after that, his lungs and kidneys were failing, his heart was in trouble, and doctors figured he had a day or so to live.

    He owes his survival to an elite team of doctors who tried an experimental treatment pioneered in China and used on the sickest of all COVID-19 patients.

    Lessons from his dramatic recovery could help doctors worldwide treat other extremely ill COVID-19 patients.

    Read the rest of the article at

  13. @ Bear Klein:
    Bear, do you have advertisers backing you? Skip the commercial breaks, and give us the spoiler! I clicked on the link you gave, but they want me to subscribe.

    My own advice, is that everyone keep their butts down and keep their powder dry.

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