Turkey has been a dominant and strategic partner to Hamas and its leadership, Egypt was the conduit through which arms flowed into Gaza. Beware of consequences
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Istanbul (Photo by Mostafameraji – Own work, CC0)
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, published back in 2011 his book entitled “Palestine.” In explicit detail, the leader of Iran laid out his vision of how to destroy the “Zionist entity” phase by phase.
Make life in Israel miserable and unbearable with daily terror from the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, from Hamas in Gaza, and from Hezbollah in Lebanon creating a never ending instability militarily, politically, economically, and culturally thereby threatening the national cohesion of the State of Israel.
The final goal in his book ends with the dispersion of the Jews to their previous countries from which they fled or immigrated. It was no surprise that when the Iranian ballistic missiles began raining on Israel ten days ago, Palestinians everywhere celebrated and danced in the streets and on their rooftops, handed out sweets to passersby, and cheered on the destruction and havoc caused by these bus size ballistic missiles with 1.5 ton warheads.
Yet despite this apocalyptic Islamist fantasy, and as the temporary ceasefire brokered by President Trump between Iran and Israel goes into effect, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is holed up in some descript bunker in the north of Iran with his immediate family, cut off from the world, exhausted and consumed with his hatred of the Jews and the State of Israel, wondering about the moment when Israel will decide to finish him off.
The Iranian regime’s stated goal from its inception has been the total annihilation of the State of Israel. This is not a slogan, but a cornerstone of Iranian religious, political, and military doctrine. Iran and its current regime leadership are indeed an “existential threat” on the State of Israel, having her nuclear arsenal and capabilities destroyed by Israel literally at the last moment.
The Iranian plan to surround and coordinate an attack on the State of Israel with terror proxies; Hamas terror organization in Gaza, Palestinians in Judea and Samaria, Hezbollah terror organization in Lebanon, the Houthis terror organization from Yemen, Syrian Army, culminated in a barbaric and savage attack on Israel on October 7th, with thousands sadistically murdered, wounded, and taken hostage.
Yet, from that dark day, from the depths of unfathomable suffering, when Israel was caught unprepared for the murderous onslaught, and arising from this painful low point, we can today proudly raise our heads after destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities that endangered the continuing existence of the State of Israel, after destroying the Hamas terror organization, after destroying the Hezbollah terror organization, after destroying the Syrian Army. The political and military leadership of all these enemies have been eliminated one by one and at times in clusters.
In the aftermath of the ten day war between Israel and Iran, Israel’s decision makers must calibrate their thinking about how to deter future adversaries whom despite being perceived as deterred, were able to coordinate an offensive initiative, rooted in the element of surprise, and inflict death and destruction on a local level, and severely weaken Israel’s strategic capabilities and dominance in the Middle East. Israel launched Operation “Rising Lion”, to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival, but no less to send a very specific lesson to future adversaries such as the nations of Egypt and Turkey. Both of these nations have quietly abetted and provided political and strategic support to the very same terror proxies trained and funded by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Egypt and Israel signed a historic peace agreement in March 1979 to end hostilities and normalize relations. It marked the first treaty of its kind between an Arab country and Israel. The peace agreement between Egypt and Israel was viewed at the time as having reshaped the history of the Arab-Israeli conflict for the better.
Yet for the past two decades, Egypt’s claim to de-escalate and bring an end to the conflict between Israel and her neighbors would be much more believable and credible had they neutralized and prevented the construction of hundreds of underground tunnels between the Gaza Strip and the adjacent Sinai Peninsula, the eastern border of Egypt. These tunnels some large enough to allow motor vehicles to pass through, enabled Hamas to import arsenals of weapons and unlimited materials to enable the construction of an underground military capacity that clandestinely threatened the State of Israel.
Although Egypt is a poor country, with a low GDP per capita rating, with tens of millions of Egyptians forced to live in cemeteries or boxes as a substitute for a home; Egypt has built up the strongest army among the Arab nations of the Middle East with over: 5,000 tanks, hundreds of advanced fighter warplanes and helicopters, over 100 naval vessels and submarines, and an estimated one million soldiers in uniform.
A study by the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies reported that Egypt’s air force has undergone the most significant modernization of any military in the Arab world. “From the point of view of weapon systems,” the author concluded, “the military-technological gap between the Egyptian and Israeli Air Forces is gradually narrowing.” In addition, the “Egyptian Air Force’s increasing confidence is reflected in its acquisition of aircraft for deep-penetration strikes into enemy territory.” Egypt now has some of the most sophisticated U.S.-made weapons, including Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter planes, and Apache attack helicopters. Western intelligence agencies are aware of and have leaked details that Israel – the country Egypt signed a peace treaty with – is the “enemy” in all of Egypt’s war games.
Turkey, one of the few countries in the world that most Americans do not visit, probably in response to the 1978 movie “Midnight Express” , portraying Turkey for what it is, a backward, sadistic, and corrupt nation.
Despite its 85 million citizens, Turkey has failed to position itself as an influential regional power. The current Islamist government’s new policy, which is premised on Neo-Ottomanize (a return to the Ottoman Empire’s glory days,) registered a series of stinging diplomatic failures in recent years. Yet Prime Minister Erodgan and his party have reinforced their political status within Turkey through the daily scapegoating of Israel in the “best” of Islamic tradition. Only recently Turkey expelled the Israeli ambassador, suspended defense contracts with Jerusalem, announced legal action against senior Israeli figures in European courts, threatened to bring the dispute before the international court and “take measures for freedom of maritime movement in the Mediterranean” including positioning her Navy so as to interfere with the free movement of Israeli shipping and mining expeditions in the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey has been a dominant and strategic partner to Hamas and her leadership enabling terror leaders to operate, coordinate, fund, and train terrorists in Turkey.
The epilogue to the current period ending with the total humiliation of Iran; militarily, technologically, and politically while exposing her true capabilities as nothing more than a “paper tiger”, and nothing close to the regional superpower the Iranians have falsely claimed. The lesson should not be lost on the nations of Egypt and Turkey. Both nations have large populations of poor and uneducated citizens, allowing them to become just another Islamic nation that can be overthrown at any time.
Ron Jagergrew up in the South Bronx of New York City, making Aliyah in 1980. Served for 25 years in the IDF as a Mental Health Field Officer in operational units. Prior to retiring was Commander of the Central Psychiatric Clinic for Reserve Solders at Tel-Hashomer. Since retiring has been involved in strategic consultancy to NGO’s and communities in the Gaza Envelope on resiliency projects to assist first responders and communities. Ron has written numerous articles for outlets in Israel and abroad focusing on Israel and the Jewish world.
To contact: medconf@gmail.com, Website: www.ronjager.com.
Do NOT refer to Iran nor Egypt nor Turkey as “paper tigers”. That was Hitler’s mistake about the USSR and the Arab and Iranian mistake about Israel. The undereducated Nsrallah image of Israel as cobweb forgot that gossamer stretches up to 20% before breaking and pro rata its weight and dimensions is proportionately – good anti-Israel word – as strong as steel wire.
The lessons from this war are for starters that the cyber field and cyber intelligence are as important as air photo recce or radio listening ever were. Secondly for Israel caught a second time (1973 and 2023) on a religious holiday, do NOT allow everybody home leave on Sabbath and festivals!
There is a reverse to this war for those who are over fond of ideologies which include varieties of fundamentalist communists and leftwards, religious mania and the conspiracy paranoids on the far right. Do NOT underestimate anybody if you threaten their lives and livelihoods. In desperate situations shelve the sociology theories about humans. They will fight – no holds barred. The ancient Greeks held that wars are started for: Gold God and Glory. That still holds but do NOT forget life itself.
As in 1967 with Egypt, Iran is still there with a humiliated and angry government. They are unlikely to shut the Straits of Hormuz because they depend on the oil exports for their own living, but they are looking for ways to 1) Take revenge or take enough to present themselves equalised – like Sadat and we know what happened to him. 2) To rehabilitate their image and reality as the effective revival of the Moslem ambition to Islamise the World. SO keep a weather eye open for nukes in shipping containers or other nasties.
Ron Jager is right on all of the issues he addressses. One perhaps hopeful comment: in 1967 Egypt under Nassser was also very well armed according to the state of military technology at the time by the Soviet Union. It already had a million men under arms. But it had an incompetant military command. The commander in chief was a drug addict who was scarcely aware of the army’s condition and the Israeli military’s capabilities , because he was stoned 100% of the time. This made an Israeli victory in Gaza and the Sunai fairly easy, much to the Israelis surprise.
Let us hope that the Egyptian Army is just as badly prepared for war today.
The Egyptians did their best to correct their Image in 1973 – to no avail. They have been rattling their sabres ever since, but they know they have some weak points.