As we expected, the real number of Egyptian troops entering Sinai to fight Islamists is closer to 9,000. The operation itself is a farce.
By now, Islamic fighters escaped to remote mountains. The troops may catch the relatively harmless dervishes here and there, but hardcore terrorists have blended with Bedouins who live outside the government’s authority. Taking them out is nearly impossible. The government cannot bomb Bedouins who are barely content with Cairo rule; bombings would provoke major strife with Bedouins undoubtedly resorting to massive terrorism in Sinai resort towns, Egypt’s important source of hard currency. Nor would Israeli government accept such a major violation of the Camp David accords as aerial warfare on the peninsula.
The situation cannot be compared even to Afghanistan, because the hosts of terrorists fully dominate the area, not only their enclaves like Taliban enjoys in Waziristan. Also, under no circumstances the Egyptians would enjoy such massive presence as the NATO has in Afghanistan. The Egyptian army is financially incapable of protracted or aerial warfare.
The situation is rather like in Iraq where the US bribed local tribes to fight terrorists instead of shielding them. That, indeed, would be an excellent strategy with Bedouins, but the necessary money is beyond the reach of near-bankrupt Cairo government. Bedouins rack hundreds of millions dollars annually from smuggling, weapons trade, and drug trafficking – and those businesses depend on the support of Islamists. Moreover, Bedouin mentality allows them to take money from the government and continue aiding the terrorists nonetheless. Also, the army infested with the Muslim Brotherhood agitators cannot be relied to fight Islamists.
Overall, mid-term prospects of reestablishing law and order in the Sinai are rather bleak.
I agree, the Sinai will grow in importance to the Jewish state in the months and years to come with the Arab Spring mob gathering more and more power and perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood coming to power. Hindsight is always 20/20 as they say, but looking back it was a mistake to give that region back to Egypt. The Suez Canal would have been an easier border to defend. I see nothing being done about the arms flowing across the sand dunes of Sinai!