The Prelude to a Counter Offensive

Scott Ritter –
THIS IS LONG BUT VERY INTERESTING.

He said something that I took exception to. He said Iran’s development of a supersonic missile will Douglas Macgregor: Another Defeat! the M.E. because it will deter the US or Israel from attacking. He ignores the fact that Iran is forever threatening Israel and for that Reason, Israel is force to pre-empt. The development of this missile or nuclear capability will again cause Israel to pre-empt.

June 10, 2023 | 33 Comments »

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33 Comments / 33 Comments

  1. Folks I am out of these discussions and the reason is I want to do my own study and research on these questions.

    With some luck and determination I will be publishing my own material

  2. @Honeybee

    What I am refering to is Humanity, Humility and Commen Scence.

    Yes, I understood your meaning here. But earnest diplomatic negotiation is the only way to actually pursue these parameters and thereby avoid war. Both Ukraine and the West have clearly indicated that they never had any intention of avoiding war, which is why the leaders of Germany and France, as well as multiple members of the Ukrainian govt and military, have each acknowledged that the diplomatic measures taken over the years to implement the Minsk accords were but a ruse under which to build a bigger Ukrainian army with which to fight Russia. By publicly acknowledging that they were never earnest in their diplomatic attempts, they also acknowledge that there really was no other way to settle the ongoing dispute in Ukraine outside of either full surrender by Russia or the use of military force to secure her strategic interests.

    You are nonetheless quite correct that there is a better way to deal with these matters, but it takes two to negotiate and it is clear that there was at most only one party interested in honestly pursuing diplomatic endeavors which signify an interest in avoiding war.

  3. Honeybee

    You are calling this Irishman with my family name (clan) going back into our great Irish history of struggle against Britain for centuries

    A coward!!!

    That is not a good thing to do

  4. Felix
    “Honeybee I will address your question when Bear Klein gives his take on the Minsk Agreements”
    Coward !!!!!

  5. The refusal of Michael, Bear Klein and others to discuss pre invasion 2022 is echoed when Radio New Zealand has censored online articles removing any reference to the coup of February 2014.

    Silence and censorship…logical

  6. This is why I have asked more than one time for these people to go back before the SMO IN 2022

    This by Peloni is correct, it is cumulative.

    “As I quizzed Bear previously, and he refused to offer an answer, I am still left without any response on how Russian pursuit of all these diplomatic efforts actually supported what many have described as a land grab by Russia when it was actually the West and the Ukrainians opposed or blocked all of them.”

    But I would be happy if they discussed just the Minsk Agreements.

    They so far refuse and that exposes what they are up to!

  7. @Honeybee

    There must be a better way of dealing with disputes.

    Indeed, you are quite correct, there is. Of course what you are referring to is a diplomatically negotiated settlement, and since the US sponsored coup was first deployed, such diplomatic efforts have been taking place nearly without pause. In fact, negotiations began even before the Ukrainian coup had yet been completed. The Russians and Europeans and Americans struck a bargain on the eve of the coup such that the coup would result in a change of Ukraine’s govt based on law and the Ukrainian constitution rather than on militant imposed violence. According to the accepted deal, Yukanovych would remain as president, his powers would be weakened, early elections would be called, and a newly elected govt would be chosen by the people by the end of 2014. In fact this bargain had been accepted by all parties, all but the Ukrainian militants which carried out all the violence which led to the coup. The militants refused to accept this deal despite it having already been signed by the relevant parties. They seized the Ukrainian parlaiment building and sacked the president’s home, and demanded a new govt be formed immediately, and that they be given an important role within this newly appointed govt. So the negotiations, after succeeding, failed to pass the militants approval. But this was but one of many negotiated settlements which followed the coup.

    Following this, negotiations between the parties continued over the following 8 years. Among the initiatives, plans and negotiations, the diplomats turned out the following attempts at a negotiated peace:
    -The Geneva agreement of April 2014
    -The Minsk accords of August 2014
    -Minsk II Accords of February 2015
    –The Morel Plan of October 2015
    –The Sajdik Initiative of January 2019
    –The Steinmeier Formula of December 2015
    –The Clusters Approach of 2021
    -Medvedchuk’s Restoring Donbass to Ukraine, and Ukraine to Dombass strategy of January 2019
    -Novinsky’s Ukrainian Formula for Peace of 2018
    -Sivokho’s National Platform for Reconciliation and Unity of March 2020

    So there has actually been a great effort to negotiate an end to the conflict, both from outside Ukraine, but also from within Ukraine. Most of these projects were stymied by Ukrainian govt’s intransigence, Ukrainian militant violence, or a combination of Western and Ukrainian duplicity in claiming any interest in solving the crisis at all.

    What fails to be found among the failures of these diplomatic efforts is the Russians spoiling or rejecting them, not once. In fact, this list is not at all exhaustive and ignores the efforts which Russia and France and Germany made during the last year before both the Ukrainian assault on Dombas in January 2022 and the resulting Russian invasion of February 2022 took place. In these efforts as well, Russia failed to play the role of spoiling negotiations, but instead was usually the instigator or a strong supporter of them.

    As I quizzed Bear previously, and he refused to offer an answer, I am still left without any response on how Russian pursuit of all these diplomatic efforts actually supported what many have described as a land grab by Russia when it was actually the West and the Ukrainians opposed or blocked all of them.

  8. Felix Small children and teenage soldiers are not “Fascist scum” Why must they become the victims?

  9. Felix Bear Has any of this been worth the death and destruction? There must be a better way of dealing with disputes.

  10. Honeybee the intention of Nuland re 2014 Coup was to destroy Putin and Russia. But they did not agree with that brutal perspective and why would they.

    And now the great Russian people are smashing these Fascist scum (once more)

  11. Michael a good example all these mixed areas living in peace until the 2014 coup. The Fascists took state power. THAT coup is what you three support. Be honest.

  12. @ Honeybee if there was a wise Western Leader preferably in the White House, he would coax Zelensky & Putin into implementing a cease-fire to start. This has become a stalemate it appears.

    The Ukrainian offensive is unlikely to capture large amounts of territory and defeat the Russians because they do NOT control the air. When Biden refused early in this war to allow fighter jets to Ukraine he doomed them from victory. Russia turned out not to have super conventional forces either and has lost a lot of them plus equipment.

    I think it would be better for everyone if this war was to stop.

  13. Bear Russia, and Ukraine, let them destroy one another. The USA taxpayer’s fund could go to much better purposes than prolonging this nonsense.

  14. Hi, Felix

    This is about the 2014-present events. Putin claims he has been “liberating” Russian-speaking areas. Here is the most recent “liberation” in the Donbass — liberated not BY Putin, but FROM him:

    https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@pilotblog/4602

    Here’s the background:

    Blahodatne, Donetsk Raion, Ukraine

    Native language as of the Ukrainian Census of 2001:

    Ukrainian 93.40%
    Russian 6.49%
    Belarusian 0.03%

    Putin has not been “liberating Russians” in his “special operation”. He has been destroying a country, killing innocent people and annexing their land.

  15. Not right now re Stalin but later

    Concentration on what happened in Ukraine from say 1989 to 2014 to 2022

    Underlying theme – Was this terrible killing necessary?

  16. Michael history is vital but not now re Ribbentrop

    All I want you Bear etc do is

    Go back to the events of the 2014 February and the leadup as well

    Then consider in detail the Minsk Agreements history

    Then perhaps take on board Trump and why he armed Ukraine

    This is not point scoring but to find the truth out.

    I await your reply. I will answer the Ribbentrop issue but not now.

  17. Felix, this is just for you:

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/26/putin-seeks-to-ban-nazi-soviet-comparisons-a72728

    THE STATE shall decide who is a Nazi and who isn’t!

    “…Russia disagrees with its former satellite states over the role that Soviet dictator Josef Stalin played in World War II for signing the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany. A secret protocol to the 1939 non-aggression pact paved the way for the German invasion of Poland by carving up its and other European states’ territories into “spheres of influence.”

    After annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, Putin defended the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as Moscow’s response to being isolated by the West. He had denounced it as “unacceptable” five years earlier….”

    Which Putin do you prefer? The old? or the new?

  18. On the other hand back in the real world Bear and Michael

    The Fascists like Azov and Antisemites like Azov face that Russians have dug in and prepared defences

    The pictures from this are truly awful

    The following is a deep trap set for Fascist tanks by Russia

    The aftermath of the failed Ukrainian assault on Malaya Tokmachka.VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    The Ukrainian army’s 33rd Mechanized Brigade and 47th Assault Brigade massed their Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles for a powerful assault on Russian positions two miles south of Mala Tokmachka in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast on or before Thursday morning.

    A dense minefield lay between the Ukrainians and their objective. And the Ukrainians knew it. They deployed at least one IMR-2 engineering vehicle and a Leopard 2R breaching vehicle in the hope of plowing away the mines and clearing a path for at least a company of 47th Brigade M-2A2 Bradleys and some attached Leopard 2A6s from the 33rd Brigade.

    The engineers failed—either because the minefield was too dense or Russian helicopters or artillery interrupted their efforts to clear the mines. In short order, the IMR-2, a rare Leopard 2A6 and as many as nine Bradleys piled up, out in the open. Exposed, under fire and taking damage, the surviving crews and passengers bailed out—and took their dead and wounded with them.

    (The visuals are horrible)

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/09/the-ukrainian-army-lost-a-leopard-2-tank-and-bradley-fighting-vehicles-trying-and-failing-to-breach-russian-defenses-in-southern-ukraine/?sh=4a63ef6f32c9

  19. @Bear

    So Peloni knows beyond even the slightest doubt that the article I quoted below is false.

    In fact, if this were true, I would not have requested confirmation from someone proficient in reading Russian, which I did do. I did use the translator, actually confirmed with two other translating sources, but such machine translations can be in error. More convincing that the Yahoo article was false, beyond it being from Yahoo which as I have noted is a pretty reliably unreliable source of news, is the fact that Putin would never make the statement which Yahoo claimed he made. Even if the facts were in line with what Yahoo claimed Putin said, he would never make such an admission, any more than Zelensky would, of his own volition, have come out and stated that the Ghost of Kiev was a phantom of his propagandists’ imaginations. This, supported by the machine translations, and the sourcing of Yahoo, did provide clarity enough for me to make the statement which I did make. I did not, however suggest that I knew “beyond even the slightest doubt” as you claim.

    In fact, confirmation bias, something which you referenced in the past few days and just previously below, provides enough influence to suggest that even though we are proven right, we should take care to be sure the proof which proves us right is actually valid – which is why I requested the input of a Russian linguist for confirmation of what I had deduced from the facts I shared and the conclusion I drew, which I would suggest was a fair one.

  20. Here is a long-awaited report from Denys Davydov, with precise maps and videos:

    https://youtu.be/lC6g3of7MVo

    In passing, he notes that the Dnipro River is very narrow now, and becoming crossable.

    5:15 AM in Ukraine now — dawn is breaking

  21. What appears to a very academic organization whose board is filled with credible ex US Senior Military Staff and many conservation is the Institute for War. They post regular updates on the war and reveal sources when they can.

    When I want to get as accurate information on the war as possible I click on this site and look at the latest report. They will let you know if the reports are from Russians or Ukrainians.

    https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-10-2023
    Key Takeaways from report:
    Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.
    Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast are continuing to defend against Ukrainian attacks in accord with sound tactical defensive doctrine.
    Russian milbloggers continue to highlight reported superior Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities as key to disrupting Ukrainian attacks.
    Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
    Russian sources continue to highlight the role of scarce military district-level Russian TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems in defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, though Ukrainian forces destroyed at least two of these key systems in recent days.
    Ukrainian forces are currently attempting an extraordinarily difficult tactical operation – a frontal assault against prepared defensive positions, further complicated by a lack of air superiority – and these initial assaults should not be extrapolated to predict all Ukrainian operations.
    Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov established a clear rhetorical line between criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
    Russian forces targeted a Ukrainian operational airfield during another missile and drone strike on Ukraine on the night of June 9 to 10.
    Russian forces made marginal advances northeast of Kupyansk and continued ground attacks near Kreminna.
    Russian and Ukrainian forces both continued ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
    Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
    Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and have made marginal gains in the area as of June 10.
    The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 10 that it plans to formalize the organization of volunteer formations.
    Russia is further consolidating a centralized media apparatus in occupied areas.

  22. So Peloni knows beyond even the slightest doubt that the article I quoted below is false. The Article is very believable to Michael.

    Like I said when I posted it do not know because I have no independent way of verifying it. All news is subject to manipulation but war news is the absolute worst.

    Eventually the dust will settle and we probably will know what was correct or not.

    If a lady friend has time I will ask her to translate the Russian as it is her mother tongue.

  23. Thank you for the link, Bear. It seems quite realistic. I’ve been seeing reports of Russian deaths up to 1000 per day (Ukrainian deaths not available). If that were true, Ukrainian deaths would be about 3000 per day under “classical” conditions. It seems, from what Putin says, that this Ukrainian figure is not so high.

    These high Russian figures could be from the inexperience and lack of motivation of the men, as well as the incompetence shown, so far, by their sycophantic general officers. That has been offset in the past, by Russia’s significant edge in air power and on scattered but plentiful artillery support. The article supplies another reason, that the Russians have been attempting counter-offensives that the Ukrainians have anticipated. Probably the cleverest thing the Russians have done, in the short run, is blowing up the dam. This cut off any Ukrainian attacks along the southern half of the front.

    All this pales right now, in comparison to the societal destruction that is happening in the US. We need a miracle right now, to rescue us from the absolute tyranny that has usurped power in our governments.

  24. @Bear
    Indeed, it would have been a startling confession for Putin to have made such a declaration against interest so extreme that it soundly proves the Ukrainian rhetoric as accurate, while also painting the rhetoric of Russia profoundly false. In fact, routine fake news reporting such as this is why I almost never read anything from Yahoo News and their sister Fake News allies, but the fake new is so apparently fake that it is oftentimes quite easily determined as false, as is the case with Putin declaring that so many Russians are dying – which he never said, nor even intimated as much.

    In fact, Putin’s words have been badly mis-quoted in the Yahoo article, and we can see this plainly by looking back thru the source which Yahoo shares in the same article where it mis-quotes him. In fact, I simply used a link from the Yahoo article which led to a telegram page which had the official Kremlin read-out linked to it. Here is what he actually said, according to the original source cited by through this chain of citations(the misqoted section is highlighted):

    First, it can be stated with absolute certainty that this offensive has begun. This is evidenced by the use of strategic reserves of the Ukrainian army. First.

    Second. In none of the areas of hostilities, the Ukrainian troops did not achieve the tasks assigned to them. This is an absolutely obvious thing.

    The fighting, as I said, is intense for five days. For example, for yesterday, the day before yesterday – for the previous two days – they were very intense and the enemy was not successful in any of the sectors.

    All this is achieved thanks to the courage and heroism of our soldiers, the correct organization, the correct command and control of the troops and the high efficiency of Russian weapons, especially modern weapons.

    Yes, we still do not have enough of these modern weapons, but the defense industry, the country’s military-industrial complex is developing rapidly, and I am sure that all the tasks facing the defense industry will, of course, be solved. There is an intensive increase in the production of modern types of weapons.

    Over these days, we are seeing significant losses of troops of the Ukrainian regime. It is known that during offensive operations, losses of about three to one are a classic. But in this case, it significantly exceeds the classical indicators. I won’t reproduce these figures now, but they are impressive.

    I want to note that this tragedy is due to the events that took place in previous years, and the responsibility for this tragedy lies entirely with the current Kiev regime, whose primary source of power is the coup d’état that took place in Ukraine in 2014.

    As for the fact that the offensive bogged down – no. In any case, it can be stated that all counteroffensive attempts made so far have failed. But the offensive potential of the troops of the Kyiv regime is still preserved.

    I presume that the military leadership of Russia realistically assesses the current situation and will proceed from these realities in building our actions in the near future.

    Of course, this is translated via google translate, but I suspect the reason why the Yahoo article mis-quoted Putin was purely on a purposeful basis, as I have noted, this is not the first time such an outrageous fake news report was shared from that foul organization.

    Mercouris read the entire exchange with the reporter on his daily video earlier today, so when I read the Yahoo article, I knew either Mercouris or Yahoo were misquoting Putin, and it wasn’t hard to guess which was more likely to do so. The irony lies in the fact that they were both citing the same source, but Mercouris appears to have actually read it as written whereas Yahoo appears to have written it as it suited them.

    In any event, if someone who reads Russian finds the translation by google translator to be flawed, please let me know. Here is the original source cited by both Mercouris and Yahoo:
    http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71329

    Also here is Mercouris’s reading (start at 5min 54sec) for comparison:
    https://theduran.locals.com/upost/4131686/putin-confirms-ukr-offensive-big-ukr-losses-leo2s-bradleys-destroyed-realists-call-peace-talks

  25. In a rare admission, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Friday that Russia is sustaining “significant losses” in the war on Ukraine.

    “In recent days, we have seen significant losses in Ukraine, they exceed the classical figure,” he said, according to the Kremlin.

    The Russian president also confessed that Russian forces were dealing with artillery problems, adding in his remarks that “Yes, we still do not have enough of these modern weapons, but the defense industry, the country’s military-industrial complex is developing rapidly.”

    The dispirited comments about Moscow’s prospects in the war come just as Ukraine has launched a series of counteroffensives to push Russian forces out of the country.

    Full Article at https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-cops-significant-losses-inferior-192412178.html

    I am unable to independently verify the accuracy of this article. Just like every other poster on this site regarding Ukraine War Articles. Only difference is I acknowledge it up front.

    If it is true it is very interesting and what it might be signaling?

  26. Thank you for this video. It was very detailed and compelling testimony from two men who understand a great deal about their subject. The interviewer asked very good questions also. The whole issue of the status of the war in Ukraine became so clear by the end of the video.

    The US is in a very sad state due to the Marxist-Islamists-Globalist coup d’etat. We have a government totally disconnected from the people, with actions at complete variance with the needs of the people. We are living in a dystopian nightmare here in the US and it seems to be just the beginning.