T. Belman. I am surprised that the M.E. is not mentioned in this list. Trump’s efforts have been focussed on creating a new alliance of Israel, the Gulf States , Jordan and Egypt. Related to that is the Deal of the Century soon to be tabled.
U.S. ambitions under pressure by crises in China, North Korea, Iran and Venezuela
President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy is being challenged on four fronts at once, creating an extraordinary test of the White House’s ability to manage multiple crises and deliver on its ambitious agenda.
In the Middle East, Iran is threatening to ramp up its nuclear program and, according to U.S. intelligence, has prepared to attack American forces. In Latin America, Venezuela has thwarted a U.S.-backed change of government campaign, with Russian and Cuban support.
The array of difficulties the administration faces was underscored Thursday when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cut short a diplomatic trip to rush to Washington for a top-level meeting that was also attended by Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford.
What makes the moment all the more unusual is that Mr. Trump has put aside the time-honored practice of setting foreign policy priorities—handling one, then another, foreign policy analysts say.
Instead, Mr. Trump has simultaneously doubled down on an array of goals, any one of which would be an ambitious single undertaking for a U.S. administration: The remaking of China’s economic model, the denuclearization of North Korea, a wholesale change in Iran’s security policy and the ousting of a Latin American government.
“In all of these cases, the administration had staked out an extraordinary definition of success,” said Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations and a veteran of the George W. Bush administration. “All of this is taking place with no serious interagency process and with a president who is allergic to the large-scale use of military power.
“There is an enormous gap between ends and means and sanctions can’t fill the gap,” he said.
White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders played down the notion that the administration was in danger of being overwhelmed by events.
“Members of President Trump’s National Security team had a routine meeting today to discuss a range of topics,” she said Thursday.
Following the meeting, Mr. Pompeo threatened military force against Iran, while leaving open the possibility for of eventual talks, saying, “Any attacks by them or their proxies of any identity against U.S. interests or citizens will be answered with a swift and decisive U.S. response.”
To be sure, no president has the luxury of choosing what crises may emerge on his watch. The upheaval in Venezuela was spurred by the country’s autocratic leader while China’s disregard for intellectual property rights and trade tensions have long colored relations between Washington and Beijing. For the U.S., Iran has long posed an adversarial presence in the Middle East, and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are an old issue.
When discussing the trade dispute with China, Mr. Trump again argued that he is facing problems left behind by others. “I blame our past leadership for allowing this to happen,” he said Thursday. “As president of our country, I had to do something about it.”
But some of the escalating tensions are the result of decisions in Washington. The Trump administration was still trying to sort out its trade fight with China and puzzle through the new diplomatic steps with North Korea after the failed February summit meeting in Hanoi and when it decided to ratchet up the economic pressure on Iran by issuing fresh curbs on Tehran’s oil exports.
“They are creating more crises than need to be the case at any one time,” said Vali Nasr, the dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins. “We can’t control Venezuela imploding, but Iran was in a frozen situation and they are creating a crisis that need not have happened at this time.”
The White House’s determination to fight geopolitical battles simultaneously on multiple fronts also shows a disdain for some of the trade-offs long common to international diplomacy and politics. On the diplomatic front, the U.S. is seeking China’s help in getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, even as it is raising tariffs on Beijing.
Militarily, The Pentagon’s strategy has been to build up capabilities to deter China and Russia while shifting forces from the Middle East. Now, it has needed to make a course correction by sending an aircraft carrier and a bomber task force to the Middle East with possibly more deployments to come.
To a great extent, Mr. Trump’s foreign policy reflects his leadership style, which is to stake out ambitious positions in the hope that the other side will blink.
The president’s bold and unorthodox approach to foreign policy, his supporters say, already has led to some important milestones, such as the first-ever, top-level meeting between an American president and a North Korean leader. Even though North Korea is testing short-range missiles, it is still holding to a moratorium on long-range missile launches and nuclear tests.
And when it comes to using force, Mr. Trump appears to be more cautious than his hawkish national security adviser, John Bolton, who last year asked the Pentagon for options against Iran after a U.S. consulate came under mortar fire from Iraqi militias that officials suspect might have had Iranian support.
In the case of Iran, the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement and to maximize economic pressure against Tehran has put it at odds with its European allies. And some former military officers have questioned the administration’s capacity to deal with multiple crisis should tensions rapidly escalate.
“We have multiple positions within our government either empty or occupied by those considered ‘acting,’ which means there is limited capacity for reacting to crises and decision making as they unfold,” said John Allen, the president of the Brookings Institution and a retired four star Marine general.
Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com
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