Peloni: I have raised the issue of the lack of independence of Ukrainian leadership from its radical elements in the past. It is a tangible and sizeable issue which if addressed could significantly improve the possibilities in Ukraine for a durable and lasting peace. Unfortunately, realizing such an outcome would not be easily achieved, particularly while the war is still ongoing.
Valery Zaluzhny and Volodymyr Zelensky in London.
President Trump says he has “had it” with Zelensky, and leaks from Washington suggest that Zelensky go into exile, maybe to France. But is that the right approach to getting a Ukraine deal? Maybe not.
The leakers, who are no doubt very senior in the administration, would probably have preferred to send him to the UK, which is very good at squandering its reputation on failed colonial ventures and wasting its highly limited military resources for no sound reason. But Zaluzhny is the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, and some in the administration see him as a replacement for Zelensky.
Zelensky could well torpedo Zaluzhny’s prospects if both were cohabiting in London.
Unfortunately there is zero evidence that Zaluzhny would differ from Zelensky on the demand that Russia must leave all Ukrainian territory. Zaluzhny is a Washington myth at best, and until more is known, a risk.
But meanwhile there is a potentially bigger hurdle to a Ukraine deal.
As I have tried to explain in various articles and interviews, Zelensky does not have flexibility. It isn’t only that Ukraine has legislation that forbids Zelensky to talk to Putin; it is that Zelensky can stay in office only with the support of the Ukrainian army and, especially its intelligence arm, led by Kyrylo Budanov head of the dangerous GUR.
The Ukrainian army is a political force that is dominated by ultra nationalists who have been around since before World War 1. In World War II these operators lined up with the Nazis to oppose the Russians, and dirtied themselves by supporting the holocaust in Ukraine. Perhaps the most famous was Stepan Bandera. During World War II he headed the OUN-B (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, originally founded in 1929). In 1959 Bandera was assassinated by a KGB operative in Munich using a gun that fired cyanide dust. In 2010 Bandera was named a Hero of Ukraine.
Monument to the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist and independence movement Stepan Bandera, in Ivano-Frankivsk
The Western press has tended to whitewash the Bandera movement and its successors inside the Army of Ukraine such as the Azov Brigade. With pressure coming from the Ukrainian government, the Biden administration agreed to permit the flow of US weapons to the Azov brigade. When the Ukrainian government wanted to name a street after Bandera, which Jews in Ukraine strongly opposed, they were “persuaded” to stand down.
It is difficult even for military leaders to go against Zelensky and his nationalist backers. One of the reasons Zaluzhny is in the UK and not commanding Ukrainian units, was his realization that Ukraine could not do more than hold off Russian pressure. Zelensky saw this as undermining his campaign to extract massive arms and financial support from NATO. To drive home the point, Zaluzhny’s senior aide, Major Gennady Chastiakov was assassinated. Zaluzhny was removed as the Army commander six month after the murder and sent away to the UK (somewhat safer than Kiev).
The Ukrainian insisted the assassination was an accident (someone put a live grenade in a box with inert grenades, given as a birthday present to Major Chastiakov).
Four of the five grenades and a carton holding a vodka bottle, a syringe, and probably the leg of the dead major.
Another possible replacement for Zelensky would be the current head of the army, Oleksander Syrskyii. Syrskyii’s tenure has been beset by continued military setbacks and one temporary success, the Kursk invasion. That invasion caught the Russians by surprise. Since then, based on orders from Zelensky, numerous reserve battalions and some hardened units have been thrown into holding the captured territory, even though its main objective was never achieved. That would have been the capture of the town of Kursk itself and its large nuclear power plant. Now, according to the latest statements coming from the Russian Ministry of Defense and from Russian President Putin, Russian forces have pushed back enough that some units are now fighting the Ukrainian invasion across the border on Ukrainian territory. Should the losses continue, Syrskyii could be replaced.
The problem is compounded if the Trump administration favors political, as opposed to military candidates to replace Zelensky. If a politician come to office without army support, the chance of success, let alone survival, is not good.
What this means is that even if an election were held in Ukraine, presupposing Zelensky would lose or not even run, the outcome would likely result in a weak leader at best who would be at risk of his or her life.
An urgent task for the Trump administration would be to find a way to neutralize the GUR and Budanov on the one hand, and break up the nationalist formations in the Ukrainian army if possible. Both seem near impossible tasks.
The other alternative would be to force Zelensky to negotiate and make sure he signs onto any deal that is struck. This means that going to elections is not the near term solution and could be destabilizing.
The current argument between President Trump and President Zelensky is really about pushing Zelensky into a deal he does not want. Yet it might be easier to protect Zelensky than to clean out the army and dismantle the GUR.
@Adam
Whereas there are supporters in Trump’s inner circle which oppose Trump’s position on Ukraine, it is Trump who will decide the policy agenda pursued by his govt. Hence, while Kellogg, for instance, holds an alternate view from Trump, it is Trump’s views which dominate, explaining why the Kellogg-Zelensky press conference was cancelled.
In fact, as explained previously, it was a great mistake for Zelensky to allow himself to be used by the Biden camp in an attack on Trump during the election campaign last fall, and some have suggested that the feud with Trump stems back to this example of Zel’s poor judgement. I, however, believe that there were substantive distinctions which were apparent between the policy goals of Trump and the expectations of Zel that the grift-as-usual should continue, and that it was this reality which brought Zel to so blatantly interfere on behalf of the Dems in the recent US election. Importantly, Zel’s expectations still contrast with the Trump’s policy of ending the grift to Ukraine and instituting a policy of reciprocity with the former Russian allied enclave.
Of course, as explained by Bryen above, and me previously, Zel has little choice in maintaining an opposition to Trump’s pursuit of peace and reciprocity with Ukraine’s military needs, which will not be changed, no matter who might fill the seats of advisors to the president, as it is ultimately the decisions of the president for which the American people voted, and who holds the control of US policy among at least his cabinet positions – again, recall the recently cancelled presser between Kellogg and Zel to grasp whose views are ultimately relevant.
As to the question of the US being with Ukraine, it should be noted that Trump does not respect Zel’s preference of having cancelled elections last year, a factor which is far too reflective of the Dem cabal which came to power in the US following the rigged election. His labeling Zel as a dictator makes this fact crystal clear. In fact, while Zel clings to power at this critical moment, he does so while lacking the mandate to demonstrate that his actions represent the will of the Ukrainian people. While you seem to find the Ukrainian polls as substantive of reality, it should be recalled that polling is dependent upon a free press and an unconstrained society, which under any definition is rendered inaccurate given the institution of marshal law in Ukraine. No matter how legitimate the use of marshal law might be judged, its use is the opposite of freedom of expression and reporting. Hence, when Trump describes Zel as a dictator and calling for elections in Ukraine, it is he who is demonstrating a preference for the choices of the Ukrainian people, as opposed to people such as Kellogg who feel no such interest in having the people’s choices considered. This lack of respect for the Ukrainian people and their constitutional choice of govt was first demonstrated over a decade ago during the US sponsored coup in Ukraine, and continues to this day with the notion that Zel’s refusal to hold elections empowers him with a mandate of support from the people.
Recall that in WWII, Churchill ruled England with a unity govt, including a coalition of both minority and majority factions.
Zel’s abuse of power has led to him ruling with no such unity govt, as his opposition parties are banned and their members are residing in Ukrainian jails, alongside many Ukrainian clergymen as well. These are an obnoxious demonstrations of Zel’s qualified commitment to democracy, and a further clarification of what his refusal to stand for election actually portends. Hence when Trump bristles against Zel’s weaponization of emergency powers, it should be recognized that he does so with an interest in Ukrainians having a voice in choosing their own fate, something which Zel can not offer to them, even if he wanted to do so, given the current state of Ukraine’s undemocratic political and social environment.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kellogg-outlines-us-stance-on-peace-contrasting-trump-s-views/ar-AA1zzGu6?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=4ba08777a7c6413d843299557b2fd918&ei=34
Kellog expresses support for Trmp’s peace initiatives, includin his commencement of talks with Russia. But his tone when discussing the Ukraine is very different from Trump’s brutal attack rhetoric. He expressed sympathy for the Ukrainian people and praised their struggle to remain an independent nation.At the same time, he said that wars needed to be ended by diplomacy, and therefore Trump”s phone call to Putin were necessary and justified.
He visited a hospital where large numbers of injured Ukrainian soldierswere being treated, He shook hands with many of the wounded soldiers and offered them whatever comfort he could. When one of the soldiers asked Kellog “are you (meaning the U.S. government and people) with us, Kellog replied, “Yes, we are.”
Reuters) – An economic partnership between Ukraine and the U.S. would benefit both countries, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote in an opinion piece for the Financial Times on Saturday.
“The support of the US has enabled a historic and valiant defense by the Ukrainian people, and as a result, we are now on the verge of a peace deal for Ukraine and a renewal of stability in Europe,” Bessent wrote.
Bessent said in the newspaper that the U.S. has proposed that revenue received by Ukraine’s government from natural resources, infrastructure and other assets would be allocated to a fund focused on the long-term reconstruction and development of Ukraine, with the U.S. having economic and governance rights in those future investments.
(Reporting by Gursimran Kaur in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao)
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(3) Adam’s comment: This is from a story in the (British) Financial Times, today, February 22, 2025. It is evidence that TRump was not speaking for a united administration in his unfotunate anti-Ukraine and anti-Zelensky outburst of a fewdays ago’ Another indication that Trump wasn’t speaking for everyone in his administration were the remarks made by Keith Kellog, the Trump-appointed U.S. envoy to Ukraine. With the press present and the cameras rolling,, he congratulated Zelensky for his “courageous” defense of his country and “making the woole word know about the Russian aggession against his country and his country’s need for the support of the entire world community.” He described Zelensky;s speeches to numerous national legilatures and international organizations as “Churchiiian. (I am parphasing all this. I don’t have the text of Kellog’s remarks in front of me. No teleprompter).
Some in the press have predicted that Trump will soon fire Kellog. But as far as I have able to learn. he hasn’t done this yet.
More soon on the conflicting and confusing messages from the Trump administration about Ukraine and Russia.
It’s interesting how main stream media has spun and twirled about the NAZi element of the Ukraine military.
I have found through life that most Ukrainians hold an unfounded high opinion on their self worth, has human beings.