Will Trump pausing effort to open Strait bring an Iran deal? – analysis

Now it appears that Pakistan hopes it can mediate a deal between the US and Iran. This has apparently caused the White House to climb down from what would have been a complex effort to open the Strait and enable ships to go through. The US says its blockade of Iran remains in force.

As the US and Iran apparently continue talks, the UN is also debating a new resolution that would call on Iran to open the Strait and also enable a humanitarian corridor so some essential items can get through.

“It is the latest diplomatic effort by the US and its Gulf allies after a watered-down resolution aimed at opening the Strait was vetoed by China and Russia hours before Washington and Tehran announced a temporary ceasefire in early April,” Arab News notes. Therefore, this shows that even at the UN, the US is facing a potential uphill battle to get what it wants.

The Iran war has been a setback for the US in this respect so far. The US has been arguing with its European and NATO allies. The Gulf countries have also been left wondering what comes next. For instance, the UAE was attacked by Iran this week, but it is wary of responding to the attacks. Most Gulf countries have not wanted to be drawn even further into a war they were not consulted on.

The UAE had to deal with new drone and missile attacks on Tuesday, a day after other attacks. As such, the UAE understands that it may be facing new escalating attacks alone. This may bring it closer to Israel in terms of ties, but there is no easy solution to the Iranian drone and missile threat. Iran feels emboldened.

The pause in the US plan to enable the movement of ships through the Strait illustrates just how complex a task this has become. While the Iranian nuclear program was once seen as the major sticking point, there are now many files to deal with. This may work in Iran’s favor because it can negotiate about Hormuz and kick the can down the road regarding the nuclear file.

This will achieve Iran’s goal of expanding the number of issues to be discussed and linking them to each other. For instance, back in early April, Iran wanted a ceasefire in Lebanon linked to the ceasefire with the US. Iran appears to have gotten a lot of what it wanted. It remains to be seen if, in the new round of discussions, backed by Pakistan, Iran can continue to have its demands met.