Peloni: Ukraine’s continued grandstanding campaigns can not erase the deficiency in their manpower, munitions and morale. They simply can not win this war.
Not Like Pearl Harbor
Stephen Bryen | Weapons & Strategy | Jun 03, 2025
In any case, the actual ground war in Ukraine is increasingly favoring the Russians, who are slowly tightening the noose on Kiev’s forces.
The latest drone attack is Ukraine’s emerging strategy to raise the cost of the war to the Russians, hoping either that they will get a better deal from Moscow, or more likely, persuade their American and European sponsors to actually join the fighting.
The new strategy first took shape in the invasion of Kursk in August 2024, a venture that cost Ukraine approximately 75,000 troops killed or wounded. At the same time, Ukraine began launching heavy drone strikes inside Russian territory as well as on the battlefield. These attacks, at least those on the battlefield, forced the Russians to change tactics and revert to smaller unit operations that were more survivable, and it certainly slowed down the pace of operations for Russia’s army.
Conversely, the Russian strategy is to grind down Ukraine’s army and, wherever possible trap them in cauldrons, cutting off their resupply and rotation lines of support. The Russian strategy appears to be unaffected, at least so far, by Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, or by wasteful operations in places such as Kursk, which actually support Russia’s military objective.
As matters now stand, on the backside of the now-failed Kursk operation, Russia has expanded its operations in Sumy, a Ukrainian province adjacent to Kursk. Sumy offers long range potential for a land assault on Kiev, should Russia be able to consolidate its operations in Kursk and further weaken Ukraine’s army defenses.
Some Russian mil-bloggers are expressing the view that even if Russia and Ukraine sign some form of “peace agreement,” guerrilla attacks on Russian territory and on their forces in Ukraine likely will continue for the foreseeable future. One can see in these ruminations the belief that NATO will keep causing Russia trouble for many years to come, assuming Russia does not take more radical steps to quash them.
Examples of how Ukraine is executing its strategy are clear. The attack on Russian air bases is just a part of the process: railroads have been hit, railroad bridges destroyed, and the Kerch Strait bridge was hit by a large explosion on June 3rd. The Ukrainians also destroyed power stations supporting Kherson and Zaphorize, showing that Russian control is not all that effective.
Ukraine is also carrying out a record number of assassinations including Zaur Gurtsiev, 34, a decorated former major, who was blown up in Stavropol in southern Russia.
The Ukrainians are exploiting a major Russian weakness, a lack of adequate preparation to protect important assets, including key people, and poor intelligence.
Can Ukraine’s strategy actually work?
Ukraine’s advantage is that it is supported by US and European intelligence and technical capabilities, which act as a facilitator and force multiplier for Ukrainian non-conventional operations. In addition, Ukraine has its own drone manufacturing and electronics and software development experts. Before the Russian invasion, Ukrainian software engineers were working for leading companies outside the country. Israeli companies contracted or hired Ukrainian software developers to augment Israel’s own formidable capability in this sector.
There also are limitations to the Ukrainian strategy. First, while the strategy, especially the use of drones coupled to some battlefield tactics, has given fits to the Russian army, the best that can be said is that it has slowed them down but not stopped them. Meanwhile, the Russians are able to keep heavy pressure on the Ukrainians, making use of long-range missiles, drones, and increasingly FAB bombs (conventional bombs with guidance kits, called UMPK kits, extending their range). Ukraine also has gotten some glide bombs from the US (such as the GBU-39), but the payload is much smaller than those used by the Russians, and the Ukrainians are running out of aircraft that can launch them. GBU-39 is a glide bomb in the 250 lb. category, while Russia’s glide bomb can carry between 555 lbs. and 3 tons of explosives over 37 miles.
Certainly, the Ukrainians are aware of the vulnerability of their armed forces, especially as they are stretched out over a long line of contact, now expanded with Russian operations in Sumy. Reports say the Russian cauldron battlefield strategy is squeezing off logistical support for Ukrainian units, and their ability to rotate soldiers, meaning that morale is suffering and even well-organized defenses can’t be held for very long.
An additional problem for Ukraine is adequate supplies from Europe and the United States and trained operators for imported weapons. Europe has slowed down the transfer of weapons, as European planners worry that they have little left for national self-defense. It is unclear whether the US will keep up the pace, since there is growing concern in Washington that the US will not remain competitive in the Pacific – facing China’s rising military capabilities – if it continues to strip its stockpiles of critical weapons and munitions. Should the US reduce deliveries of weapons, a distinct possibility for operational reasons, Ukraine’s army cannot remain in the field for very long.
Ukraine’s main problem is internal and political.
The current leadership can’t acknowledge the surrender of any territory to Russia. It could agree to a ceasefire in place, but the Russians are not ready to grant that. It would leave the Russians with control of some of the territories they have annexed, but not all that they claim, and the possibility that the war might resume again in future.
More to the point, the Ukrainians don’t want to give up on a relationship with NATO and Europe. Thus, even though uninvited, Ukrainian President Zelensky says he will attend an upcoming major NATO meeting in the Hague. While the US says that Ukrainian membership in NATO is off the table, Kiev is not accepting the US position. Zelensky is currently in Vilnius where he will be attending the Bucharest Nine and Nordic summit, aimed at unifying regional support for Ukraine. (The Bucharest Nine, established in 2015, includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.)
We know less about Russia’s internal situation. The Russians, so far, have failed to come to grips with Ukraine’s unconventional war strategy, nor have they reacted so far either in improving their own security measures or in answering the Ukrainian attacks. How this impacts the current leadership, the Kremlin first of all, Russia’s security services, and the Russian army, is simply unknown. Having said that, it is unlikely the Russians will dramatically change their approach on the conduct of the war, or at least so far, there is no evidence of any change.
It looks like Ukraine’s new strategy will not have more than a marginal effect on the war itself.
@Madeline
I am traveling today, so it will be difficult to respond til much later, but I do appreciate your comment and will respond later.
“Russia cannot win the war” (explicitly, word for word)
— https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUvtNCnyj2I
“At the current rate of advance, it would take them 80 years to conquer Ukraine”.
— Sir Richard Dearlove https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaBXPHViOzM
@Michael
Have you ever studied the US Civil War? How far did the Union advance on Richmond after four years, and then boom, Richmond and Petersberg both fell, and a week later the war was over. The deciding factor in wars of attrition, which would include the Ukraine war, is not captured territory, but on men, material, and morale. Ukraine lacks all three. I hope that we will not see Russia win the war, that some sense of rational mentality returns to Europe, but left un-negotiated, it is all but certain that Russia will win this war due to its advantages in men, material (ie munitions), and morale.
Peloni,
My father’s paternal great-grandfather fought at Petersburg. His maternal great-grandfather fought at Shiloh. Both were casualties. Yes, I am familiar with that conflict.
The Russians have actually made less progress the past two years, than either side did in WWI.Neither of those wars dragged on for 80 years, as this one may.. The front lines have been essentially static for two years, I believe — a longer period than either Verdun or the Somne.
This thread, by the way, is not about those wars, but about the current one. Eighty years is a long time. BTW, the Russians have lost far more in men and materiel than the Ukrainians (see my post of June 6, 2025 at 12:55 am)
As for Ukraine voting in the UN against Israel, my understanding is that the issues at hand were about territorial expansion. If Ukraine said Yes to what looked to them (but not me) like a land grab, then Russia could claim it had a right to do the same to Ukraine.
As to anti-semitism, why did so many Jews flee Russia during tzarist pogorms and then USSR persecution? No point in pretending that Russia likes Jews. Since Ukraine elected a half Jewish president, I don’t get excited about anti semitism in Ukraine. It’s just everywhere.
My main points are that Russia is morally wrong (doesn’t anybody care?) to invade a much smaller country, targetl civilian structures, kidnap children. etc. Also, they have a proven history of grabbing smaller neighboring countries and threatening the rest of Europe. That disturbs world peace, and since the US is part of the Western world/civilization, it challenges our values, which used to be democracy and standing up for the little guy.
Of course China is a big threat. But that is another issue, not a necessary part of this discussion.
If anyone wants to contest these points I am making, kindly be brief and focused.
@Madeline
Thank you for your pleasant reply.
Ukraine has voted against Israel on almost every single vote raised against Israel, even while doing so placed Ukraine voting alongside the Russians in support of the Pals. There is no excuse for supporting the barbarians who really are pursing genocide, even as Ukraine likes to falsely paint themselves as being the target of a like minded plight as Israel really does face.
While antisemitism is everywhere, I don’t see anyone anywhere in the world saluting a WWII Waffen SS veteran. Not only this, but this same SS veteran shortly afterwards received a metal in the name of one of the OUN founders who advocated for the execution of the Jews. Even the Canadian Left saw fit to feign shock at having done so, but not our cousin Zel, nor his parliament, nor his countrymen. Notably, there are now three separate Azov units as well, but I don’t want to go too deep on any of these topics unless you care to do so, but I do suggest that the issue of Ukraine’s antisemitism is quite something to get alarmed about.
Who said anything about Russia liking Jews? This was a technique that others prefer to use to counter my charges about Ukraine’s overwhelmingly evident support and tolerance of Nazi’s. My dislike of Ukraine has nothing to do with Russia, just as my dislike of Russia would have nothing to do with Ukraine. Mixing these two nations up as if we need to choose between them on any given topic is spurious, or so I do challenge.
I really have no sense of relevance of the size of a country in relation to it being invaded. The US was going to make war on Cuba. Was that unjustified? Cuba is pretty small after all. Targeting civilian structures is part of the rules of engagement when the structures are occupied by military units. Kidnapping children is different from evacuating them from a war zone. Most people would agree that innocents should be evacuated from a war zone, with the notable exception of the Gazans, of course.
Russia is not the Soviet Union. They do not have the means of projecting power across Europe. They have nuclear missiles and a competent army, despite the news reports which suggest otherwise, but they lack the financial means of such an undertaking as grand as you and others like to subscribe to them, even if this was their ultimate vision.
What disturbed world peace was the US refusing to provide good faith negotiations with Russia to avoid expanding the war, both before and after the 2022 invasion.
It is not another issue. Pushing Russia into the clutches of China was the greatest geopolitical mistake of the past two centuries. Even now, this is being done with this latest attack on Russia using Russia’s compliance under nuclear treaty obligations against them. By doing so, the CIA just made China’s position against the US stronger by threatening Russia, and that is very much a necessary part of this discussion.
These are brief responses, and focused as well.
I’m glad you were briefer. As in many political arguments, each side looks at a different point of view. We could go on and on, but I don’t think it will be productive. My idea of a more enlightening discussion is if both sides looked empathically – yes, empathically – at the other side to understand it as if it might have merit worth paying attention to. Like the rabbinic idea of an argument for the sake of heaven. Who knows. One might learn something. I don’t think this is going to happen here. My fault too, no doubt.
@Madeline
Indeed. Importantly, the entire practice of diplomacy is based on the concept of empathy, ie having an connection with where your opponent stands, and how to best deal with them such that you can motivate them towards a goal where you want them to go. It is a lost art, and few practice it anywhere anymore. As you suggest, it is regretable.
So if I look empathically at what your position appears to be, I see outrage at past crimes and insults from Ukraine towards Jews. While I don’t like those things either, I am willing to put those things in history and focus on the present. That means that siding with Russia calls for the total destruction of another country, its people either killed, fleeing in great distress, or forced into a simmering insurgency, without a lasting peace. Their language would be forbidden – again. Their books in their language destroyed, separate culture gone. Russia would grab their fertile fields and mineral beds. Perhaps most importantly for Putin, he could boast of restoring Imperial Russia and secure his leadership, which otherwise could be threatened with voting him out or death.
For the world, it would be a message that might makes right, encouraging other countries to break the post WWII peace we have mostly enjoyed. After Hitler, we have had enough of might makes right, IMO.
Here is a recent article from Germany of what a Russian conquest would mean to them, and to the world. http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-timely-reminder-of-what-ukraine-s-defeat-would-mean-for-the-rest-of-us/ar-AA1G9dbK?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=4a68fff82faa4d8993985ad16e4f2c84&ei=71
For those keeping score, here is the best tally of casualties I could find:
“Overall, a high of 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties,” notes a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank based in Washington, DC….
“Russia’s extreme violence has killed between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainians, according to the CSIS, inflicting around 400,000 casualties in total…”
— https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/05/russian-casualties-ukraine-putin-war-toll/
Concerning manpower, then, the Ukrainians are inflicting 4 x as many deaths on the Russians, as the latter are inflicting on them. The situation on the ground, meanwhile, has hardly moved in two years; and Russia, meanwhile, has lost over 30% of its strategic bomber force and about 20% of the Black Sea Fleet (including its flagship, the Moskva).
Eastern Ukraine, of course, has pretty much been flattened — especially in the “Russian speaking” areas. These are mostly civilian areas; and it is likely that Ukrainian civilian losses greatly outnumber those of Russia.
If the war ever ends, expect some sort of “Marshall Plan” to help out the Ukrainians. I don’t know who seriously plans to help the Russians.
The main cities of Ukraine are Kiev, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Donetsk, Liviv and Zaporishshia. Of these, only Donetsk is controlled by the Russians.
It never ceased to amaze me
That person’s calling themselves…oh such stirring steadfast friends of the Jews…but prostrate themselves on their bellies to accept the word of British top dogs…like the Telegraph… oppressors always of the Jews.
A foul smell
Though the BBC covered this honestly during the 8 years of Ukraine bombing civilians in Donbas before they had skin in the game. That’s how you convinced me.
@Sebastien
And after they had skin in the game, they purged the internet of most, though not all, of the videos demonstrating what they once found outrageous, but now describe as “heroic”.
To be blunter than I wanted to be, I see nothing but unexamined Russian talking points coming from you. I remember Laura writing this in the comments some time ago (she called it propaganda), and you told her, essentially, Be quiet!
Then she left and wrote for Substack, which I think was new to her. Too bad her articles can’t be published here, or on almost any US right site.
It really is sad to see so much of the American right ape Putin, while Europe, espcially the Brits, are doing great analyses and revving up their military to TAKE ON THE RUSSIAN THREAT, roundly denied by Trump and those who follow him uncritically.
Yes, the rest of the world sees Russia as an aggressor that must be stopped. That is why Ukraine is seen as heroic, defending not only themselves but the Free World.
So I really haven’t much desire to hear from Mr. Putin. But thank you for doing a blog on Israel.
@Madeline
Wrong. Laura repeatedly called Ted a Putin apologist and terms to this effect, and after being warned to not repeat using this ad hominem attack, she was placed on moderation. Ad hominem attacks are distracting to an open forum and personally dislikeable, and they prevent honest open discussions while dealing with the personal abuses intended by such low borne antics.
Wrong. Laura wrote for substack beginning in October 2022, long before I ran this blog.
Actually, Russia poses no threat to the US, but only empowers China, which is and always has been a threat to the US. It falls to Chinese allies in the West, not referencing either you or Laura here, to present Russia rather than China as a threatening power.
With their love of Nazi emblems, celebration of Nazi war criminals, and preference to vote time and again with the rest of the world (ironically including Russia), against Israel, Ukraine is not defending the free world, not even remotely so. Their defense is both self serving and self agrandizing, as they milk billions of dollars of the aid sent to them into their own pockets. While you may prefer to claim these are Russian allegations, the truth is that these are claims made against Ukraine by Westerners, not Russians, the latter of which I do not follow.
If you can interact without the use of such ad hominems as you began your latest comment, I would be interested in you response, otherwise, have a nice day.
Hi, Madeline
Peloni in infamous for his straw men and rabbit trails. I understand what you are saying, and it isn’t about when Laura did this or Peloni did that. It is about Putin. If Peloni tries to say otherwise, give him a quick kick in the butt for me.
I agree with you, that many on the “Right” (whatever people call it) are essentially Putin repeaters when it comes to Ukraine. I think some, like Peloni, are sincerely deluded; but I count others, here and elsewhere, as doctrinally conflicted.
As for the vocal Brits (The Times, BBC, Reuters), they appear to be the Deep State Globalist variety, definitely not Populists like Trump. That said, I wonder if ANY of these players and blocs are anything more than “Good Cop, Bad Cop”. The real kingpin is probably some obscure nerd like Noah Yuval Harari.
Now, getting back to the OP, if I might be so bold, and the question,
“Will Ukraine or Russia Win the war?”
my answer is definitely, “I don’t know”; but the Ukrainians seem to have been beating the tar out of Putin lately.
Madeline
Have you studied what happened in Ukraine from 2008 to the present
Or are you just emoting
I’m sorry, Peloni, I do not mean to be impolite, but I find that we are looking at such different information sources, which I don’t know if you are aware of or honor, that I will not go thru your verbiage point by point.
Even the quote you used from me below shows that you failed to address the point I made. In other words, you talk past me. So what’s the point of continuing. “too many words” and nothing much said. If the point is to bamboozle me or make me leave the verbal battlefield to give you a win – I guess you got it.
@Madeline
This was not the point, but it is up to you how you spend your time. If I wanted to ignore you, I would do exactly that. Instead, I have engaged you on more than one attempt to interact in an active discussion on a topic which you feel is not being covered well. Well, if I am doing a poor job, it remains for you to make the case, something which you have not done or even attempted.
In any event, wishing you the best, and perhaps you will someday choose to actually interact rather than retreat while feeling you have somehow been ‘bamboozled’, a term which usually infers a intent of duplicity, which I find to be both unfair and unsubstantiated in my comments below or elsewhere.
I can’t understand this blog’s death wish for Ukraine. They should just lay down and die, even if the US cuts back on funds? Whatever happened to morals and having democratic ideals? In some ways Ukraine’s struggle is comparble to Israel’s: A much smaller country invaded by a much larger force, and fighting back valiantly because to surrender means death.
What in the world has corrupt, civilian killing Russia got that Ted and Peloni want to see it succeed in wiping out another country?
I have limited my involvement with this blog because of its position on Ukraine.
@Madeline
Surrender was never a requirement of avoiding war. Nor was it a requirement of achieving peace after war began. In fact, as I have noted in my comment below, the major ‘victories’ which Ukraine has achieved such as sinking significant assets of the Russian Black Fleet, came at significant expense to Ukraine and absolutely no advantage to their military aims. The same is true with hitting Russia’s nuclear detection radar and their nuclear bomber fleet. It demonstrates the import of their war aims which are not relevant to Ukraine’s involvement in the war, but that of its operators in Washington and London.
As to the related parallels between the Ukraine War and Israel, this is completely untrue. If Ukraine stops fighting, it will not mean the death of Ukraine, but the same is not true for Israel. Also, there was no October 7 event which brought Ukraine to provoke Russia, nor was there such an event which brought Russia to invade Ukraine. More than this, there was no provocation by Israel at all prior to it being invaded, its people tortured, raped, mutilated, body snatched, and kidnapped to endure two years of further torture. Ukraine did in fact make threatening statements both at Bucharest and prior to that, statements which were specifically spiked to draw Russia into reacting, with the full support of the US as they did so. Hence, there is in fact, no fair comparison to be made between these two wars, and attempting to claim otherwise are both fictitious and libelous.
As to Ukraine being smaller, it is fighting with the backing of the full Western world, making its efforts not so small nor so disadvantageous as miniscule Israel stands, isolated from the world’s support, including both that of Ukraine and of Russia, with only the US supporting them, and only to the extent that this support lies in America’s interest, eg not at all with regards to the Houthi ‘truce’.
I once offered you a significant response in a personal communication, which I recall you responding by telling me ‘too many words’. Well, questions deserve answers, and answers deserve responses more relevant than that. So let us try once again, and I will use fewer words to hopefully gain a better response.
Your description of Ukraine as “corrupt, civilian killing” is something which can be used to describe Ukraine just as well if not more accurately as it does Russia, so let us drop the pretense that Ukraine is anything more than what it has always been since its inception, a corrupt money pit thru which illegal funds are passed to advantage power barons, both those in Ukraine and those in the West and to a lesser degree in the past decade, those in Russia. It is an oligarchy, a mafia state, parading as a democracy, and its interactions with the West has seen the West become more aligned with its pursuit of oligarchic rule than of Ukraine becoming more reformed towards being either more tolerant or more democratic. Ukraine has been the center of human trafficking in Europe, with little reform coming from its association, infiltration, and subsidies from the West over the years. Hence, comparing this Nazi celebrating den of iniquity to the state of Israel, in any way, on any day, is an insult all by itself. A different but similar statement might be made regarding the comparison of Russia to Israel, but that comparison does not support the Ukraine centric fantasies of many such as yourself, so I need not address the relevant distinctions.
This war between Ukraine and Russia was always easily solvable, but the US had greater plans involved, and so the war went forward and continues onward to this day. Notably, recognizing the facts which surround the contest between the West and Russia on the fields of Ukraine seems to be something anathema to you and others who are invested in Ukraine while ignoring the very real warts which Ted and I have described which mark Ukraine as less than the “valiant” nation which you challenge it to be.
It is this fact, and the incapability of you and others to counter what has been written on this blog which has limited your involvement, for you have yet to do so, even while promoting claims that you would. Of course, your attention and interests are your own to assess, but as Ted once challenged, if he was wrong, why is it that no one could offer a competent explanation for the facts which he shared. Ad hominem attacks are not a valid response, yet this was the limit, with rare exception, which was offered. Perhaps you will take the time to do so now since you failed to do so previously, even as it will come in the days following Ted’s unfortunate passing.
Ukraine has only ever ever had one strategy…to draw rich capitalism in behind it to destroy the Russian Revolution
Endless pogroms and Pogromists 1919 vintage
Stalinism
Holocaust
40 million dead Russians
Lies common of Holodomor
Post 1945 CIA lackeys
Resurrection of Stepan Bandera
You must have loved the Joe Biden era
Now open terror
Threatening us all with nuclear end all
Save us all time and read a book dear Madeline
Donaldo:
You have wishful thinking. Ukraine has been cleaning Putin’s clock; Frankly, I’m glad America doesn’t face enemies as powerful as Ukraine. Can you imagine the US getting a third of its B-52 fleet wiped out in one day?
Ukraine needs to sue for peace, while they still hold on to a few pieces of their tattered country.
Zelensky needs to go, perhaps caught in the crossfire, like Gaddafi was.