Peloni: The factional animosity between the parties in Iran represents a significant hurdle facing the Iranians on their bid toward establishing a new state. As Mandel explains, it will be important for the Iranian people to meet this hurdle while facing off against the interests of the IRGC. This hurdle will however be made extensively less complicated if the minorities regions, which Mandel proposes be given autonomy, are instead granted their own state altogether. By doing so, the Persian majority would have a free hand to reestablish order in their own community under whatever form of govt they might ultimately choose while eliminating the influence of the IRGC. It would also lessen the significance of the possibility of the the Persians choosing either a leadership or govt which is less than supportive of the US and the West.
If managed wisely, the fall of the Islamic Republic could catalyze a historic realignment of the Middle East in favor of peace, stability, and freedom.
By ERIC R. MANDEL | JUNE 22, 2025
The event that would be the most likely to eliminate Iran’s nuclear ambitions – and curb its imperial drive to dominate the Sunni Arab world and destroy Israel – is regime change. However, toppling the Islamic Republic would be only the beginning. To advance American national security and prevent regional chaos or the rise of another authoritarian regime, we must plan now for what would come next in that event.
History shows that the fall of a dictatorship does not guarantee stability or liberal democracy. If the Islamic Republic collapses, the United States and its allies must be ready for multiple contingencies – ranging from civil war and state fragmentation to the rise of extremist groups seeking to exploit the vacuum.
Supporting the Iranian people does not require American boots on the ground. Most Iranians, particularly the young, seek freedom from theocratic rule and are more pro-Western than their counterparts in Afghanistan or even among Iraq’s Shi’ite Arabs. They deserve our strategic and moral support.
The collapse of the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, a brutal human rights violator, and an aspiring nuclear power is a national security win for the United States.
Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons would also avert a regional arms race and send a powerful message to rivals like China that the US stands with its allies and acts decisively when global norms are threatened. Our friends in the Far East, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea are watching with keen interest.
While a collapse could occur anytime, we must prepare for the aftermath with humility and foresight. Filling the power vacuum will not be easy, and best-case scenarios – such as the peaceful emergence of a non-Islamist government – are far from assured.
Establishing a non-theocratic Iran that respects international law and civil liberties, dismantles its nuclear program, and ends regional aggression will require continued international engagement.
For the United States and its allies, this represents a once-in-a-century opportunity to reshape the Middle East and diminish the adversarial influence of Russia and China.
Conversely, failing to support a post-regime Iran risks plunging the country into internal conflict, triggering a potential mass exodus of displaced people, empowering Islamist factions, and inviting mischief of the “axis of aggression” of secular and theocratic totalitarian dictatorships. The time to plan is now, not after the regime falls.
Developing a strategy for Iran after the Islamic regime falls
A COHERENT US strategy must begin with dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and preventing remnants of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from reasserting control. Simultaneously, Washington should:
- Identify and engage potential opposition leaders – within Iran and in the diaspora – committed to pluralism, secular governance, and a respectful civil society. This is not the same as long-term “nation-building” involvement, which Washington has vowed to avoid.
- Build communication channels with insiders aligned with our goals who could emerge as transitional figures.
- Coordinate with allies – including the EU, Japan, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – to develop a unified post-regime framework.
- Provide financial and logistical aid to support pro-democracy movements, especially those that enjoy legitimacy among Iranians inside the country.
- Convene an international contact group to facilitate a peaceful transition and extend recognition to a credible interim governing body, drawing from the successful American approach to post-Communist transitions in Central and Eastern Europe, like the Czech Republic.
What future leadership emerges in Iran will depend on how the regime falls. The Iranian diaspora opposition remains splintered. Some back exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi; others support secular dissidents like Masih Alinejad, Ali Vaez, or Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi. The Iranian dissident organization MEK (People’s Mojahedin [jihadist] Organization), though organized abroad, lacks credibility among Iranians in the country, in part due to its Marxist-Islamist past.
Inside Iran, the country is ethnically complex. Persians comprise just half the population, with Azeris, Kurds, Baluchis, Lurs, Turkmen, and Arabs making up the rest – and they will all demand a degree of regional autonomy. Any transitional government will have to balance these local interests while preventing the IRGC or Islamist remnants from reasserting dominance through force.
American isolationism is not an option. A strategic vacuum in post-regime Iran would be filled by chaos or America’s adversaries. A prepared, engaged, and values-driven US response offers a rare chance to help Iranians realize a better future aligned with their freedom and global security.
If managed wisely, the fall of the Islamic Republic could catalyze a historic realignment of the Middle East in favor of peace, stability, and freedom. If mismanaged, it could repeat the costly mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. The choice is ours.
The writer is the director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and the senior security editor of The Jerusalem Report. He regularly briefs members of the US Congress, their foreign policy aides, and the State Department.
As I have just written in response to another article, It seems to me that regime change is becoming less likely, with every passing day, as the Iranian leadership recovers from the attacks. As good as the Mossad (and the CIA ?) are, they did not think far enough ahead to prepare for regime change, let alone the breakup of Iran. They better get moving if they don’t want to face the same scenario again, only next time, against a foe who is better prepared.