T. Belman. But this article may be in error re the black vote of 17% going to Trump and 29% of Hispanics to Trump. Recently:SHOCK POLL: Trump receives 25% of black vote in general election matchup. The Survey USA poll finds 31% of Hispanics would vote for Trump.
Corrected national polling data shows Trump in the lead
By Sierra Rayne, AMERICAN THINKER
The Guardian and SurveyUSA have released a new poll on the general election matchup among Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, and Jill Stein.
The polling results claim that Trump trails Clinton by 3 percentage points, 39% to 36%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 4%.
Then we look at the demographic composition of the poll, and we find a massive liberal bias.
A full one third (33%) of respondents were Democrats, which is a 7% bias over the number of Republicans surveyed (26%), even though we know that on a national scale, the percentage of Democrats and Republicans is about equal.
Better yet in terms of showing gross bias, 53% of those surveyed apparently voted for Barack Obama in 2012, and just 30% voted for Mitt Romney. This polling ratio of 2012 Obama:Romney voters is absurdly biased toward liberal voting preferences, given how the actual 2012 election results saw just a 51.1%-to-47.2% split in favor of Obama.
Thus, the poll is biased about 20% toward Obama over Romney supporters – otherwise roughly known as liberals versus conservatives. Among respondents who did vote for Romney, Trump has dominance (74%) compared to Clinton (just 6%). Thus, had this poll been weighted to reflect the actual 2012 voting patterns, Trump would emerge with a large lead over Clinton rather than a 3% deficit.
A whopping 47% of those surveyed apparently had a bachelor’s degree, compared to U.S. Census Bureau data showing that just 32.5% of the population 25 years and older has this level of education.
Despite these anti-Trump biases, there is some good news in the polling data showing that the standard-model liberal narrative against the GOP presidential candidate is entirely false.
Clinton currently has just a 10% edge among all women (regardless of race) over Trump, which is less than the 11% advantage Obama had over Romney in 2012 and far less than the 13% deficit McCain had compared to Obama in 2008. Repeated polling data for several months shows Trump clearly winning the white female vote over Clinton.
Trump is getting 17% of the black vote, far higher than the 4% McCain received and 6% that Romney was able to obtain. Among Hispanics, 29% say they will choose Trump, more than voted for Romney (27%), and Trump is also on track to pick up more of the Asian vote (29%) than did Romney (26%).
Keep in mind that these are clearly underestimates of actual support from women and non-whites for Trump, as the poll is glaringly skewed away from Trump in its demographic composition. But if we correct for these biases, it becomes clear that Trump is likely out in front of Clinton by at least several percentage points and may be on pace to a solid electoral showing among women and non-whites.
All this points to a potential Trump landslide come November.
their is an anti semitic uptick from neo nazis attacking jews online and calling themselves trump supporters. I believe this is a false flag leftist democratic party masquerade trying to paint trump as anti semitic and racist. It carries all the same hallmarks they use against Israel. I am sure the neo nazis know he has an orthodox jewish daughter, son in law, grandchild and that Trump supports Israel… so the only logical answer is a leftist muslim false flag.
@ Bear Klein:
thats because ryan and the other gop are bad mouthing trump at every opportunity, instead of backing trump and his policies they are publicly demeaning them and him. They want hillary so they can fire americans from their jobs and bring in foreigners.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton- Steadily worse for Trump. Trends are important in polling. The state polls are the most important. At this point in time however Trump is losing.
Trump (R)
Spread
RCP Average 5/24 – 6/13 — — 44.0 38.4 Clinton +5.6
CBS News 6/9 – 6/13 1048 RV 4.0 43 37 Clinton +6
Bloomberg* 6/10 – 6/13 750 LV 3.6 49 37 Clinton +12
FOX News 6/5 – 6/8 1004 RV 3.0 42 39 Clinton +3
Rasmussen Reports 6/6 – 6/7 1000 LV 3.0 42 38 Clinton +4
Reuters/Ipsos 6/4 – 6/8 1440 RV 2.9 42 34 Clinton +8
Economist/YouGov 6/2 – 6/5 1636 RV 3.6 44 41 Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP 5/31 – 6/5 850 RV 3.3 45 40 Clinton +5
Quinnipiac 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 2.5 45 41 Clinton +4
All the polls and pundits have been wrong.
But it is for Trump to win or lose!
Will Putin (China, N-Korea, Iran wont) provide the US mass media with incontrovertible evidences that Hilary computer was hacked?
Everyone is forgetting that Obama and Hillary will be well prepared to STEAL the election. I do not trust the corrupt GOP to keep the Democrats honest.
one thing is certain… one should not take seriously the polls of the left nor those controlled by the gop establishment trying to unseat Trump. They skew their polls to reflect their narrative because they know that their audience are the mentally retarded who elected a guy named hussein to be their president… after 911 no less.
they kept saying the same before trumps gop landslide, they will be proven wrong again, hillary scandals have yet to get full exposure to the lemmings.
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson
900 Shares
Poll Date Sample MoE
Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
Spread
RCP Average 5/24 – 6/13 — — 40.7 36.5 8.5 Clinton +4.2
Bloomberg 6/10 – 6/13 750 LV 3.6 49 37 9 Clinton +12
Guardian/SurveyUSA* 6/8 – 6/8 1408 RV 2.7 39 36 6 Clinton +3
FOX News 6/5 – 6/8 1004 RV 3.0 39 36 12 Clinton +3
IBD/TIPP 5/31 – 6/5 908 A 3.3 39 35 11 Clinton +4
Rasmussen Reports 5/31 – 6/1 1000 LV 3.0 38 37 8 Clinton +1
Quinnipiac* 5/24 – 5/30 1561 RV 2.5 40 38 5 Clinton +2