Bibi’s victory

By Ted Belman

Bibi makes a huge comeback in the last 72 hours.

He said he will first invite Bayit Yehudi to join him and will not invite Labour.

Bibi will have a nationalist government of about 64 seats but it will be stable.

Eli Yishai’s party did not reach the threshold.

Remember Bibi promised:

– thousands of houses in Jerusalem

– no Palestinian state

– no dividing Jerusalem

-not to release any more prisoner’s

 

March 17, 2015 | 82 Comments »

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32 Comments / 82 Comments

  1. @ bernard ross:

    I was out and about today and got mixed reaction. I live in an area that has a vibrant Jewish community and also many non Jews. The secular grocery stores all have a kosher section because of the number of Jews in the area.

    At the fish market a customer ahead of me had a lot of questions. The response was ‘Yes, your right Easter is coming and so is Passover so we will be very busy’. As soon as she said Passover the woman tightened up. The worker looked over at me and smiled. The woman looked at me out of the corner of her eye and made a quick exit. Two workers looked directly at me again and smiled. They knew what was going on.

    I run into this frequently. Fortunately it usually works out in my favour.

  2. Schoen was political adviser to President Clinton and is considered one of the inventors of overnight polling. He added that Netanyahu will almost certainly be able to form a government in the nation’s parliamentary system, and credited Netanyahu’s eleventh hour comeback to the Prime Minister’s opposition to a Palestinian state.

    His last minute pledge to oppose a Palestinian state almost certainly made up the difference, in that he [Netanyahu] was trailing by 2-3 seats at the weekend,” Schoen told The Algemeiner.
    http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/03/18/top-democratic-pollster-says-israeli-election-a-stunning-rebuke-to-obama/

    Interesting take

  3. “I think that would be a very big mistake, since we learned that a large Likud with a small Jewish Home is a very dangerous thing,” he said. “It led to the Disengagement, it led to the Hevron Accord, it led to the Bar Ilan speech.”

    ………
    “I do not know what the motive is,” Bennett said. “Right now, I feel that a great number of votes are moving from the Jewish Home to Likud, and Likud is in a very good situation in any case. We must say that what counts is the number of people who will recommend [a candidate] to the President. If you vote Likud, you get the Wye Accords, the Bar Ilan speech, Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, Arik Sharon, these are the facts.”
    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/192783#.VQnXL47F-So

    said before results, it will be interesting to see if Bennett is correct as to his predictions.

  4. @ bernard ross:

    Yup – get ready for the backlash… we do have some support. Check out the comments below.

    Netanyahu may not be a popular choice, but beware those who use his election win to spur anti-Semitism

    Now more than ever we must form bonds across communities

    Europe’s Jewish community is suffering enough already. What will not help matters is the fact that some people will twist the results of this week’s Israeli election into more reason to spread or support anti-Semitism.

    Bibi’s going to be an unpopular choice around the world. Well, newsflash, Hamas aren’t going to win any awards for peacemaking either. But whatever your thoughts on the conflict, adding poison to the debate and to race relations outside of the Middle East will do no good at all. In times of global conflict, it’s time for the rest of us to step up and knit ourselves together.

    This week’s election results must not provide further fodder to misguided hate-spreaders. Let’s be clear: it is utterly wrong to use events in Israel as justification to attack Jews. But still, terrorists and lay racists alike use Israel’s policies as a stick with which to beat the diaspora.

    Terrible acts of anti-Semitism have been committed in Europe over the past few years. Children murdered at school; shoppers killed at the supermarket; a gentle volunteer killed guarding a synagogue. In the UK, much of the trauma goes unreported: Jews abused in the street with venomous regularity, gravestones desecrated. Attacks rise each time there is trouble in Israel. Well, if you ever, ever thought that attacking a Jew was a justifiable response to your feelings about Israel, hear this: it is not, it is not, it is not. And how on earth does spreading more violence help your fellow man.

    With Bibi versus Hamas at the helm fr another four years, the Middle East might be faced with another stalemate. But we’re not. We all have a choice. In our most challenging times in global politics, we can choose fear, or choose love, and we can form bonds across communities and spread some light into the world. When we do, it’s amazing – like the band of young Muslims who recently formed a protective circle around Oslo’s synagogue. We must follow their example and create a protective circle around Europe’s Jewish community, instead of using Israel’s election results as a tawdry excuse to do further harm to them.

    FreeSpeech 3 hours ago
    A well-intentioned piece with a peaceful message. I couldn’t agree more. However, one correction; the article says that when we all get together, ‘….it’s amazing – like the band of young Muslims who recently formed a protective circle around Oslo’s synagogue.’

    Photographs and eye-witnesses reveal that only around 20 young Muslims held hands in front of the Copenhagen Synagogue. There weren’t enough for a circle. The guy at the end of the line can be seen with his hands in his pockets. The rest of the large crowd was made up of non-Muslim citizens concerned for safety of the Jews attending the Synagogue.

    the above are excerpts from The Independant

  5. Netanyahu’s statements would “not be the policies of the future Israeli government,” Arabi told AFP.

    “I believe personally that he made that statement about… no two states to gain the votes of the extremists, particularly those Russian immigrants who went to Israel in the last 10, 15 years,” he said.

    The Arab League chief told AFP that he expected stalled peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority to resume after the next Israeli government is formed.
    http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Arab-League-chief-calls-electioneering-Netanyahus-vow-to-rule-out-Palestinian-state-394358

  6. The White House said on Wednesday that it was deeply concerned by the use of “divisive rhetoric” in the Israeli election that sought to undermine Arab-Israeli citizens.

    Hussein obama annoyed about the money he wasted on busing arabs and sending his minions.

  7. J Street, the Left wing lobby group that offers itself and alternative to the long established American lobby group for Israel AIPAC, said on Wednesday that the election victory of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party was a “deep disappointment to all who hoped that Israel might choose a new direction for the country.”

    Jsttreet had hoped that Israel would choose the direction that they did, which was to follow the pied piper of Soros(tsuris?) who continues today to swindle jews of their lands as he did when he aided the nazis to steal jewish properties in the holocaust.

  8. dove Said:

    Hopefully Bennett won’t be too weak to help BB stay in line –

    he did not get any YS settlement, levy with 12 seats so I expect less with 8, unless there is some other pro settlement party with seats

  9. dove Said:

    state BEFORE the election that he will no longer accept a two state solution and that Jerusalem will NOT be divided.

    lets see about after… but those 2 statements require no proactive action for jewish settlement in YS or even legal rights of the same.
    yamit82 Said:

    He got a government he never wanted but the people do so he now has a big problem

    what did he get that he did not want? It looks to me that he gained at the expense of the pro settler faction and therefore will have less pressure from the right.
    Who is now the pro settler faction and what number seats do they control?

  10. yamit82 Said:

    @ bernard ross:

    3-4 mandates BB picked up from Bennett came from the very settlers in Y&S. Bennett assumed they were all or mostly in his pocket. He miscalculated. BB’s logical argument mistakes buy Bennett and fear of theleft ascending to power drove them to the Likud to protect BB. Without BB as OM what benefit a voter for Bennett?

    Watch BB sooner than later revert to appeasing moderate and look to somehow co-opt Lapid or Labor into the government. He got a government he never wanted but the people do so he now has a big problem

    I dont understand the system. I thought you said that rivlin polls the parties for their choice. If BB had a few seats less and bennett a few more wouldnt the same coalitions still have been formed but with more influence by bennett(as long as BB hasmore than labor) Also I understood that having the most votes is not as important as having the largest coalition?

    I will look to see who BB appoints and what he does but I dont expect anything for YS outside of existing settlement blocks or adjacent to those blocks. I expect him to try to stall overall agreements, with covert agreement of the same by abbas, and to give them development land near their existing populations centers as was proceeding before. I think the faux peace talks had more to do with keeping the issue out of the arab limelight to further gulf recruiting for their iran jihad(as you know 😛 )

  11. dove Said:

    India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote on Twitter in Hebrew (translated here), “Congratulations my friend Bibi. I recall our wonderful meeting in New York last September.”

    the warmest…
    dove Said:

    The European Union (EU) likewise congratulated Netanyahu on his victory.

    The EU is committed to working with the incoming Israeli government on a mutually beneficial relationship as well as on the re-launch of the peace process,” EU foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini stated.

    “We are at a crucial moment, with many threats all over the Middle East,” the EU statement read. “The EU staunchly supports a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in the interest of the Israeli people, of the Palestinian people and of the whole region.

    “It’s time to turn this page and I’m confident that we can work together with the international community for a solution that will guarantee peace and security in the Middle East.”

    Pure annoying euro BS. they should have stopped in the first sentence in bold above and ceased their constant whining and meddling. They spent 3 paragraphs whining about their pet project to libel the jews. The saudis blew sweden off and Israel should do the same. Its like having a constant irritating and screeching background noise that you want removed permanently. Lets hope the muslims shut them up and keep them busy over there.

  12. Reaction from around the globe.

    Netanyahu election victory receives mixed reactions around the world
    March 18, 2015

    The reaction from world leaders to Netanyahu’s decisive election victory has been mixed – from congratulatory to dismissive.
    By: World Israel News Staff

    World leaders responded in a diverse fashion to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decisive victory in the Israeli elections on Tuesday.

    US President Barack Obama has conspicuously remained silent so far. Secretary of State John Kerry likewise refused to comment on the issue when asked to do so by reporters in Lausanne, Switzerland, Reuters reports.

    However, State Department Spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Tuesday night that the US was looking forward to working with the next Israeli government. At the time of her statement, the extent of Netanyahu’s victory was not known.

    “We congratulate the citizens of Israel on today’s election. The reported large turnout is another reminder of the vibrancy of Israel’s democracy and why the United States will remain firm in our commitment to our deep and abiding partnership with Israel… We look forward to working with the next Israeli government, including on our shared agreement for peace and security in the Middle East,” Psaki stated.

    She also reaffirmed the Obama administration’s commitment to a two-state solution: “Only a two-state solution that results in a secure Israel alongside a sovereign and independent Palestine can bring lasting peace and stability to both people. Of course, we will continue to pursue this goal with the new Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority.”

    Netanyahu stated during his campaign that no Palestinian state would be established if he was reelected.

    The New York Times reported that “the consensus among Republicans and Democrats was that the strategic partnership between the U.S. and Israel remained intact.”

    Writing on Twitter, potential 2016 presidential race front-runner Jeb Bush said, “Congratulations to Prime Minister Netanyahu on his re-election. He’s a true leader who will continue to keep Israel strong and secure.”

    British Prime Minister David Cameron warmly congratulated Netanyahu, tweeting: ”Congratulations to @netanyahu on election result. As one of #Israel’s firmest friends, UK looks forward to working with new government.”
    Federica Mogherini

    PM Netanyahu with EU Foreign Minister Mogherini. (Kobi Gideon/GPO/Flash90)

    The European Union (EU) likewise congratulated Netanyahu on his victory.

    “The EU is committed to working with the incoming Israeli government on a mutually beneficial relationship as well as on the re-launch of the peace process,” EU foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini stated.

    “We are at a crucial moment, with many threats all over the Middle East,” the EU statement read. “The EU staunchly supports a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, in the interest of the Israeli people, of the Palestinian people and of the whole region.

    “It’s time to turn this page and I’m confident that we can work together with the international community for a solution that will guarantee peace and security in the Middle East.”

    India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote on Twitter in Hebrew (translated here), “Congratulations my friend Bibi. I recall our wonderful meeting in New York last September.”
    Negative Responses in the Middle East

    As widely expected, Iran condemned the elections results but rejected all Israeli political parties, not only Netanyhau’s Likud.
    Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham. (Photo: Farsnews)

    Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham. (Photo: Farsnews)

    “For us there is no difference between the Zionist regime’s political parties. They are all aggressors in nature,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Marizeh Afkham told reporters at a weekly news conference in Tehran, according to the Iranian Mehr news agency.

    Hamas released a similar statement, saying that all Israeli political parties were bad for the Palestinians as there was a “consensus among them to deny the rights of the Palestinian people and continue aggression against them.” Hamas spokesman Sami Abu-Zuhri threatened Israel and demanded they rethink their stance in relation to the Gaza Strip.
    Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator.(Miriam Alster/ Flash90)

    Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator.(Miriam Alster/ Flash90)

    Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator in peace talks with Israel, blamed the international community for Netanyahu’s success.

    “Such a result would not have been possible had the international community held Israel to account for its systematic violations of international law,” he declared.

    Netanyahu’s victory, he continued, shows “the success of a campaign based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of the fundamental rights of the Palestinian people.”

    Erekat recently stated that Israel was worse than the Islamic State (ISIS) terrorists. He also threatened to push forward with the prosecution of Israeli leaders at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes. “It is clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will form the next government, and for that, we say clearly that we will go to the Hague Tribunal, we will accelerate, continue and intensify” diplomatic efforts, Erekat told AFP.

    Check these pouty pics out! 🙂

    https://go.madmimi.com/redirects/1426696402-e88b80c481880cdeb20420db726d9ff9-e325277?pa=29025437047

    http://unitedwithisrael.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/kerry-300×225.jpg

    Stephen Harper says on Twitter

    I congratulate PM Netanyahu on his election results. We look fwd to working w/ the gov’t once formed. Israel has no greater friend than Cda.

  13. @ bernard ross:

    3-4 mandates BB picked up from Bennett came from the very settlers in Y&S. Bennett assumed they were all or mostly in his pocket. He miscalculated. BB’s logical argument mistakes buy Bennett and fear of theleft ascending to power drove them to the Likud to protect BB. Without BB as OM what benefit a voter for Bennett?

    Watch BB sooner than later revert to appeasing moderate and look to somehow co-opt Lapid or Labor into the government. He got a government he never wanted but the people do so he now has a big problem

  14. dove Said:

    It’s quite possible that some Israelis shifted their vote from Bennett to Netanyahu to ‘play it safe’ – concerned that herzog/livni might win too many seats.

    Looks like that is the case. BB made a logical claim and plea to the electorate and they responded partially from the logic to the argument partially to fear of the left gaining full political power and then there was the very Israeli knee-jerk reaction to foreign interference in our business. Obama unwittingly powered a landslide against his own position. What a shuck.

    Israelis are above all tribal pushed to the wall….. even the most disparate types come together in common cause. This was I think the case here.

  15. @ bernard ross:

    He obviously got a message from somewhere to publically state BEFORE the election that he will no longer accept a two state solution and that Jerusalem will NOT be divided.

    It was nice to see he had the confidence that this committment would help him WIN instead of LOSE. He still looked worried but with the final result I think he is starting to trust Hashem. Look at the description of The Home Party. BB tried it on for size and it worked!

    Hopefully Bennett won’t be too weak to help BB stay in line – and hopefully the people who voted for him won’t cave. He is listening to public pressure.

    Regarding the settlement issue – that is still a grey area.

  16. dove Said:

    t the right will have to keep the pressure up on BB when he is being ‘blackmailed’ by the international community. He has a tendency of caving in under pressure.

    who exactly is that right who will pressure him wrt settlement in YS outside the major blocks? I see only the reduced Bennet, perhaps there are more with seats, I dont know them, I asked Yamit.

    Regarding YS and settlement I do not assume that BB is for it and is caving. In politics the appearance of quarrel is not always real. Certainly a strengthened BB at the expense of the settler movement in likud and to his right puts him in a position, if he is not pro settlement, to actually be even more “giving”.

    it is right wing leaders who can more easily convince their constituencies to accept left wing deals. I see the settler movement suffering except maybe in jerusalem. I expect lots of noise and quarrels with the PA but no settlement. it is only the “pressure” from the internationals and the pals which allow the settlement movement to accept bb’s non performance on their behalf.
    I dont expect agreements but under the table understandings which will show themselves by the facts that emerge in little steps. That is what I think has been occurring and which I beleive will continue to occur. Often rhetoric is the opposite of agenda in politics.

  17. @ bernard ross:

    his is also my question and I do not see strong support for annexation or settlement of YS left of Bennett, including BB.

    It’s quite possible that some Israelis shifted their vote from Bennett to Netanyahu to ‘play it safe’ – concerned that herzog/livni might win too many seats.

    It would have worked out better if BB had 3 or 4 less seats and Bennett had 3 or 4 more.

    The end result is still a lot better than it could have been – but the right will have to keep the pressure up on BB when he is being ‘blackmailed’ by the international community. He has a tendency of caving in under pressure.

  18. @ bernard ross:

    his is also my question and I do not see strong support for annexation or settlement of YS left of Bennett, including BB.

    It’s quite possible that some Israelis shifted their vote from Bennett to Netanyahu to ‘play it safe’ – concerned that herzog/livni might win too many seats.

  19. @ yamit82:
    I predict that BB will build nothing outside, but maybe adjacent to, the major blocks, which all parties will keep. Inside, and adjacent to, will be claimed as expansion not a jewish right. Perhaps he will focus on jewish settlement in east jerusalem, I dont know. I do not see him as a land for Jews/Israel leader and those in his party appear to support whatever he does.

    Who are now the land for Jews/Israel party and leaders and what are their knesset numbers>

  20. ArnoldHarris Said:

    But above all else, the new government of Israel must make the development of a large Jewish population in Area C — and especially now the Jordan Valley — a high national priority.

    Do you see this happening with the BB win and the Bennet loss? Who are the land for jews party? Likud has them but they follow whatever BB dictates.

  21. dove Said:

    That was quite a surprise! He lost 25% of his seats. I wonder why?

    this is also my question and I do not see strong support for annexation or settlement of YS left of Bennett, including BB. If bennett had more seats and BB won with less then the pro settlement would have gained. It appears that nationalist and pro settlement are NOT synonymous.

  22. ArnoldHarris Said:

    What’s this about exit polls predicting this or that? More than 2/3 of the actual votes have already been counted.

    I have seen elections in various nations and constituencies where 2/3 votes were completely turned around when the balance came in. However, you appear to completely miss the gist of my posts, as usual.
    ArnoldHarris Said:

    The way I see it now, it doesn’t really matter what President Rivlin calls for.

    Unlike you, I ama not an expert on Israeli elections and therefore posted the fact of his position as reported. My understanding is that when there is less than a majority to one party then Rivlin polls each party as to their choice and calculates the result. I posted this before from yamit and my understanding still is that the rivlin stage was not to be ignored especially if he actually voiced a political position.
    ArnoldHarris Said:

    I know that Yamit trusts nothing whatsoever about Mr Netanyahu.

    Although I have not taken yamits position I am not convinced as to” BB’s rightist credentials with particular respect to “LAND FOR JEWS IN YS” We have previously had this discussion and you NEVER actually spoke to the FACTS of my position. You merely repeated political retoric. From where I stand BB is NOT a land for Jews leader. BB’s “rightist nationalsim” is on the security issues but NOT land for Jews. I was hoping that a right wing coalition win would have brought a lot more votes to BEnnett and any land for jews to his right so as to mitigate BB’s propensity for enacting left wing settlement policies.(Livni appt.Justice & negotiations, E1,Levy, Yaalons anti settler admin). Although Likud may contain many pro settler elements the party appears to follow BB’s persoanl policies. therefore in my opiinion a land for jews party begins with bennett and flows right. In my view BBs win at Bennetts loss has produced an even more center right gov which is NOT pro settlement or annexation of YS. When has BB ever settled land, built, on anything outside of the major settlement blocks? I believe that all parties will retain the major settlement blocks but only Bennet and the further right speak of annexing and settling Jews in the major portions of Area C outside of settlement blocks.

    On settlement outposts BB does not say he will annex and keep the outlying settlements but simply that he will not force thenm to leave their homes. He makes that sound like he is anti aboandoning them but he can satisfy his spoke claim merely by giving them a choice to leave or stay under pal authority. He has not been forthcoming on this whereas Bennett is clear. In this regard BB could be true to his platform and rhetoric while leaving those settlements to the pals.

    The same on Jerusalem: BB will never divide jerusalem he says but he does not say if he will give any land in jerusalem to the arabs. All they have to do is have a diplomatic compound like the wakf and connect it to the pals to satisfy the pal claim to a capital in east jerusalem. Or they can have the peftist proposal of one jerusalem, undevided in operation but under 2 soverieghties, which is also technically not lying. BB’s word can always be interpreted in other ways, which makes me wonder when comparing his retoric to his actions, which do not auger well.

    Also, you never responded to my quote wrt Kahlon only seeking the jewish areas of Jerusalem.

    I dont listen to rhetoric of any politician. I will wait to see who BB appoints and what actual stepes he takes. Announcements are BS, building only in the major blocks are BS, appointing yaalon who administrates an anti settler MO is BS,obstructing Levy enactment is BS. I want to see significant building outside the major blocks on new vacant land in YS which demonstrates more than an expansion of existing blocks. I want to see real steps on the ground to continue the palestine mandate directive to “encourage jewish settlement in the mandate” namely all that vacant land in YS area C.

    If I don’t see those steps then I do not consider BB more than a status quo politician, stalling, holding the line,etc. However, I am beginning to think that is the best to hope for in Israel. I hope to be wrong on BB but I have had a suspicion that there has been a long term understanding on a negotiated settlement and that steps taken so far fall into agreement with that understanding. I beleive that understanding does NOT include land for Israel outside the major blocks. I will watch BB and evaluate whether his steps agree with land for Jews/Israel or no land outside the major blocks. Yaalon appears to me to be a step against land for Jews because without settling more land and supporting the settlers one is obstructing the prime directive. To obstruct is to be against; that is my position. So far I am not convinced that BB’s win is a win for settlement of Jews and/or annexation of anything outside major blocks. All parties must annex major blocks because they have been settled and are too big to leave.

    I am still waiting for you to rebut the facts I have asserted regarding BB on E1, levy, livni,the mount, and I add to those Yaalon in terms of his factual behavior.

  23. @ woolymammoth:

    @ dove:Canada has played a key role as Israel’s frontline ally. For one, it has forced Obama to moderate his antipathy towards Israel.

    The U.S. is closely watching Canada and getting ready to ‘move in for the kill’. The campaigning is similar to Israel. Those opposing Harper and his stance against the war on terror and his pro Israel committment – the slogan is ‘ANYTHING but Harper again’. The NDP are considering forming a coalition with the Liberals to oust Harper out.

  24. @ Max:

    The way the West (Canadian TV) portrays them leader as – as a party that wants to make peace with all Israel’s neighbors eg Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Obama … gee ain’t that sweet ! Everyone all just want’s to get along!

    It is sickening! MSM wasn’t shy about their bias with the Israeli elections either. I just laughed. I thought, this isn’t going to do you much good pitching your slant on the campaign here – no one here will be voting!!

    A friend of mine has dual citizenship and she was in Israel for the 2013 elections was able to cast a ballot. I wonder. Do you have to be in Israel at the time – or can you cast a mail in ballot from here?

  25. @ Eric R.:

    Naftali Bennett.

    With only 8-9 seats, he will not have the clout that he had in the previous government.

    That was quite a surprise! He lost 25% of his seats. I wonder why?

  26. It’s all pretty sad though – all those voters who were brainwash by the elite’s leftist propaganda machine and voted for the suicide cult of Labour.
    ….
    The way the West (Canadian TV) portrays them leader as – as a party that wants to make peace with all Israel’s neighbors eg Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Obama … gee ain’t that sweet ! Everyone all just want’s to get along!

  27. @ dove:Canada has played a key role as Israel’s frontline ally. For one, it has forced Obama to moderate his antipathy towards Israel.