By Peloni
From now on comments on every post must relate to the content of the post.
Comments that don’t relate to the post must go here.
Any person who contravenes this demand will be put on moderation. Also their offending comment will be trashed.
The reason for this demand is so that people who want to read comments which pertain to the post, don’t have to wade through the chatter.
Everyone will be happier.
Sen. John Fetterman is being reported to appear on a video during the Republican midterm convention (political theater) to thank Trump for support of the US steel industry. A sitting Democratic Senator appearing at a midterm Republican Convention to thank the Republic President. How many firsts can we count in this?
Bibi appears to be sending signals that he will need to make a new coalition which will not include Ben Gvir.
So will he attempt a coalition with Yashar and the Religious Zionists, maybe Winter (assuming he passes the threshold) and B’Yachad (Bennet & Lapid).
This would exclude the Haredi and Ben Gvir. It would be a government of all Zionist parties that serve in the IDF.
Is this possible or likely?
I would mark this as highly unlikely. Bibi would be placing himself and his legacy in the hands of his most ardent opponents. These leftists might join Bibi’s govt, but if Bibi jettisoned the entire right, it would be he who would be joining them, simply so he could add legitimacy to the Leftist agenda which would follow.
Lapid and his Yesh Atid party members are post Zionists. Lapid is the long standing champion of the TSS who gave away the gas fields to Hezbollah. Any party which his is part of carries that taint with it, or at least that seems reasonable enough to me.
England is expected to announce sanctions on Israel tomorrow. This act of aggression won’t go unanswered.
Ben Gvir adds Yishai Fleisher to his slate of candidates.
Bennett justifies his betrayal in Jpost without a little dog named, “Checkers!”
Maria Bartiromo is abruptly reported to have left Fox News, effective immediately.
https://www.c14news.com/article/1494465
My comment: Nadia Matar said the Yesha Arabs who recognize Israel as a Jewish state can become citizens.
https://youtu.be/S06n5a38J7U?is=p3z_7jnwyfXn6LPT
@Sebastien
https://www.israpundit.org/nadia-matar-i-have-a-real-solution-for-gaza-and-judea-and-samaria-and-all-the-arabs-of-the-region/
@Michael
Don’t sell yourself short. You already have. Your patronizing condescension was duly noted. Haven’t seen any posts from the person you mentioned, with whom I had the same problem, ever since Peloni mercifully asked us to stop interacting.
“It’s not part of my culture.” Oh, and what culture is that? And what is my culture that you think it’s part of?” We’re both English speaking Americans. I wonder what you could be possibly referring to.
I sincerely hope this has been a conversation stopper.
Hi, Sebastien
His name is Edgar, and I’m sad to find that you haven’t heard from him. Names and memories: Nowadays, my mind is filled with many of both; but not too filled with actual human interaction.
And what human intereaction do we have nowadays? Wars, insults, lies, misery… all in abundance.
Concerning wars, this has been a banner week for them, hasn’t it? I think we crossed a threshold, with the Saudi-Turkish-Pakisan (i.e. China) alliance. I have talked about Ezekiel 38 many times over the years, but hardly anyone believed me when I said Turkey would go to war with Israel. Now that doesn’t sound like such a strange idea, does it? Shalom shalom 🙂
@Michael I’m glad you enjoyed it.
@Michael
I never use them. I haven’t had a good experience with them either. I just post my question in the address bar and hit enter. Mostly pretty good but you still have to apply critical thinking, independent knowledge and fact checking, as well as reading between the lines. But, it’s very helpful when I know what I want to refer to but the details have become fuzzy. Wonderful encyclopedia if you know how to use it properly.
I once joked that the internet ruined the art of conversation by making it possible to actually look factual assertions up. 😀
@Michael “ That’s “AI talk”. Where does the cut/passte end, and Sebastien begin? ¶ ”
Apparently, you missed my comment in the ongoing debate between Rafi on one side and Peloni and myself on the other about whether a Constitution would make any difference now – you came in in the middle of – sandwiched in between all of my historical examples. The algorithm won’t allow me to write long comments or reply indefinitely to provide continuity. Unsubstantiated sound bites are really just meaningless preaching to the converted or pointless baiting. Aside from a couple of amusing or explanatory asides. So you really need to read all of them to know what I am talking about.
And then I provided historical examples – I knew what to ask for, I was a prize winning interdisciplinary history major who studies under some famous scholars as well as a well-read Marxist back in the day – demonstrating famous but often forgotten historical examples of democratic republics that turned into dictatorship through different combinations with and without a Constitution and and/or a Supreme Court, as well as examples of notorious decisions of Supreme Courts in different countries and eras supposedly interpreting their nations’ Constitutions. And that’s without legitimate differences in interpretation decided more or less arbitrarily by a small coterie of supposedly objective and apolitical unelected, un-accountable judge/lawyer//bureaucrats.
Including this joke I wrote ten years ago and never tire of reposting (spoiler alert: If you don’t get it, google, “Well-Tempered Clavier.”)
“ “The Second Amendment says: “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”
* Constitution of United States of America 1789 (rev. 1992)
Anti-Gun advocates point out that the army and national guard meets the requirements for a well regulated Militia and say the the last part is just an add on.
Pro-Gun advocates point out that the term, “well-regulated” was used differently in the eighteenth century and referred to individual self-control, as well as to the point that the volunteer militia was formed in opposition to the official military which was used as a tool of oppression. Moreover, they say that the last part is the key and the preamble is the add-on.
Half the country is pro-gun and Half the country is anti-gun.
In whichever half, one of the factions is a minority, it will need to do lots of outreach (80’s euphemism for agit-prop).
Outreach requires funding.
Benefit concerts are a time-tested method of fundraising.
Bach is always popular.
If a single appellation for benefit concerts is used by both sides, it will gather resonance through public familiarity.
So how about:
“The Well Regulated Clavier.”’
—
“Happiness for you?” * What kind of dressing would you like on your word salad, today sir? 😀
——
Movie “Safe” (2012)
Hi, Sebastien. You are correct, that I didn’t read your long exchange with Rafi and Peloni. I live isolated, in a sea of Israel haters; and I was just looking for someone to talk to who still had some pro-Zionists cells moving in his/her brain. I was especially hoping to see Edgar G; but it’s been so long since we’ve talked, I’m not sure whether he’s alive or dead.
As for the “AI” comment, before “excusing” yourself of the matter, you might simply let me know if I’m right. I have spent many hours in my isolation, chatting with Google Gemini; and it seems to be part of their programming that they don’t simply say “goodbye” after a conversation, but instead field a question to elicit further chatter.
humor 😀
@Michael
Query:
Google AI Overview:
Or as the violin teacher said: “I take excerption to your tone.
https://www.thestrad.com/video/violinist-jascha-heifetz-imitates-bad-playing/6145.article
Bastien, don’t expect me to try to match you in rudeness. It’s not part of my culture.
@Rafi @ Peloni “did the roman republic have a constitution, a supreme court and separation of powers before Julius Caesar overthrew it?” +7 ” The Roman Republic did not have a written constitution or a supreme court, but it did have a complex unwritten system of laws and a powerful separation of powers with checks and balances among its magistrates, senate, and assemblies before Julius Caesar took power.The ConstitutionIt was an unwritten set of traditions, laws, and customs called the mos maiorum (way of the ancestors).Power came from a mix of laws (leges) and Senate decrees (senatus consulta).The Twelve Tables formed the written base of Roman civil law.Separation of PowersConsuls: Two men held executive power and military command for one-year terms to prevent tyranny.The Senate: A council of former magistrates that advised leaders, handled money, and managed foreign policy.Assemblies: Voting bodies of citizens that passed laws and elected magistrates.Tribunes: Officials with veto power to protect the common people from unfair government actions.The CourtsThere was no single supreme court.Major political trials and high crimes went before large popular assemblies or special juries of senators.Civil disputes were handled by individual judges (iudices) chosen from approved lists.Would you like to know more about how Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon or how the Roman checks and balances failed?
That’s “AI talk”. Where does the cut/passte end, and Sebastien begin? ¶ Hi, Sebastien. I don’t see any posts by Edgar G. anymore. Is he still with us?
Hi, Michael That’s AI shaped by my questions to which I know the answers more or less.And when it’s wrong, I point it out. AIs are not all alike. Google is not bad. Chat GPT I found useless. As for your other question, ask Peloni. Not my concern.
All of my in class exams were open book. Why should I have to reinvent the wheel when AI will do the work for me.
The facts with sources I am pointing to merely support my argument. Why should I bother to paraphrase? Automation is a labor saving device which is why it baffles me that everybody says we need immigration because of a labor shortage when the population has never been as large as it is today. I say seal the border. Mass deportations are the way to go.
I miss Horn and Hardart and those automated Japanese restaurants where you take dishes off a conveyer belt and pay by the plate.
The future: “ caves of steel robots do farming in 1990s +1 “ In Isaac Asimov’s 1954 sci-fi novel The Caves of Steel, robots handle outdoor agricultural labor and mining in the open country while humanity crowds into massive underground mega-cities. The story is set roughly 3,000 years in the future, not in the 1990s.Farming and Labor in The Caves of SteelThe “Outsides”: Human populations live strictly indoors within enclosed, metal-domed cities, viewing the open outdoor environment with agoraphobic dread.Robot Agriculture: Automated machinery and robots handle all the crop cultivation, farming logistics, and food processing outside the urban centers.Social Conflict: Earth’s strict laws limit where robots can work because citizens fear that expanding robot labor will replace human workers entirely.Would you like to explore more about the timeline of Asimov’s Robot series or details on the detective plot involving Elijah Baley and R. Daneel Olivaw?”
I wish Manhattan had a dome. I’m a big fan of scaffolding.
“Nature wants you dead.” – George Carlin
@Rafi, @Peloni
My comment: There are no universally applicable purely procedural panaceas. As an ameliorative factor, there needs to be adequate checks and balances that don’t, however paralyze the elected government’s ability to act.
Former Chief Justice Aharon Barak and his successors have removed all checks and balances. This is not democracy or even practical. This is Plato’s Republic. Communist countries are another variation on that theme. Mark Levin spoke about that with regard to the latter.
Or, alternatively, “All theories have been exploded.” – “Night Song” (1949) dir, John Cromwell. Feel good classical music film starring Dana Andrews, Merle Oberon, Ethel Barrymore, Hoagy Carmichael, Eugene Ormandy and the NY Philharmonic, with an original song by Carmichael and mini-Piano concerto by Leith Stevens. On Prime. I discovered it many years ago when they would show a marathon of Ethel Barrymore’s films on her birthday on Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Apropos of nothing.But I digress.
“plato’s republic rule by “enlightened” kings/judges”
” +4 In Plato’s Republic, Socrates argues that society will only find relief from troubles when political power and philosophical wisdom unite, famously stating that until philosophers rule as kings or kings become true philosophers, cities will have no rest from evil.
Core Ideas of Platonic RuleThe Form of the Good: Rulers must grasp true knowledge, equity, and virtue rather than acting on mere opinion.No Love for Power: True guardians are reluctant to rule, preferring the pursuit of truth, which keeps them free from corruption and greed.Merit and Education: Rulers are selected through rigorous, lifelong testing in mathematics, science, and dialectic philosophy.Harmony of the State: Justice is achieved when the rational, enlightened class guides the society just as reason governs the individual soul.If you’d like, let me know:Are you exploring this from a historical or modern political point of view?Would you like to compare it with democratic theory?”
@Rafi, @Peloni
@Rafi, @Peloni
l’esprit d’escalier* :
“Plessy v. Ferguson, 163 U.S. 537 (1896), was a landmark U.S. Supreme Court decision that upheld the constitutionality of racial segregation under the “separate but equal” doctrine.”
——
“l’esprit d’escalier meaning”
” +5 L’esprit de l’escalier is a French expression that translates to “staircase wit.” It describes the frustrating feeling of thinking of the perfect witty reply or comeback long after the conversation has ended—typically when you are walking down the stairs leaving the event.Origin of the PhraseThe French philosopher Denis Diderot first coined the term in his essay Paradoxe sur le Comédien.He described being left speechless by an argument at a dinner party and wrote that a sensitive person “becomes confused and doesn’t come to himself again until at the bottom of the stairs”.Key CharacteristicsThe Delay: Your brain processes the situation too late, well after the moment to use the comeback has passed.The Setting: Symbolizes the mental clarity that hits you the moment you leave the room, building, or party.Universality: It is a common human experience, though English lacks a single-word equivalent and often just borrows the French phrase or calls it “staircase wit”.If you’d like, I can share:Famous examples of this happening in literature or historySimilar untranslatable idioms from other languagesLet me know how you’d like to proceed!”
@Rafi @Peloni OK, so 8 “did the U.S. Supreme Court approve the Chinese Exclusion Act” +6 ” Yes, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld and approved the constitutionality of the Chinese Exclusion Act and related restrictive laws in a series of late 19th-century decisions.Key Supreme Court DecisionsChae Chan Ping v. United States (1889): Often called the “Chinese Exclusion Case”, the Supreme Court unanimously upheld laws that blocked Chinese laborers from re-entering the country, even when they held valid return certificates issued by the U.S. government prior to the new restrictions. Justice Stephen Field declared that the power of a sovereign nation to exclude foreigners is an inherent right and that acts of Congress supersede prior international treaties. This established the legal foundation for the “plenary power doctrine,” giving the federal government nearly limitless authority over immigration with minimal judicial oversight.Fong Yue Ting v. United States (1893): The Court upheld provisions allowing for the arrest and deportation of Chinese residents who failed to secure a white witness to prove their lawful residency, confirming Congress’s wide authority to deport non-citizens.A Notable LimitationUnited States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898): While the Court consistently validated the exclusion and disenfranchisement of Chinese laborers, it did rule against the government in one critical citizenship case. The Court determined that the Fourteenth Amendment guarantees birthright citizenship to children born on U.S. soil, even if their parents are Chinese citizens who are statutorily barred from naturalizing.Would you like to explore the plenary power doctrine or the 1943 repeal of the Chinese Exclusion Act?”
@Rafi
Isn’t that what the thwarted attempt at judicial reform was all about? The court seized power from the other two branches 35 years ago and doesn’t want to give any of it up. Despots rarely do. Especially, ideologically driven partisans, “activist “ judges determined to impose their will on the majority in the name of “individual “ rights, though only the individuals that fit their arbitrary and partisan frame and “reasonableness” whatever that means.. We have the same problem in the U.S. The constitution has often been of limited help as the Suoreme Court won’t hear every case, and how they rule also depends on the composition of
the court, though at least it’s not perpetually self-appointed from the same clique. Where is the accountability? Who watches the watchers?
No other parliamentary system is so lopsided. Neither was Israel’s before Aharon Barak effectively smashed it. His judicial revolution must simply be reversed. There was nothing wrong with the system he replaced.
It wasn’t because policies
changed radically every election. It was because in 1977, the left lost it’s electoral monopoly so it clung to power through the courts and the permanent bureaucracy, i.e, Deep State. Tte Judicial Revolution of the ‘90’s was the flip side of Oslo. The two faces of the Concepzia that led
to the Oslo Terror War and Oct. 7.
@Rafi Case in point:
“ The federal judge who has dismissed a series of antisemitism cases—by the Trump administration against Harvard, by Jewish students at MIT, and by a Harvard Business School student, Yoav Segev, who was assaulted by anti-Israel protesters—turns out to have his own history as a student anti-Israel and anti-war activist.…”
https://freebeacon.com/campus/judge-in-harvard-antisemitism-case-was-anti-israel-anti-war-activist-mcgovern-campaign-aide/
@Sebastien
@Rafi
Recall also that the US coordinated a color revolution in Israel to help the Left block Judicial Reform. Yet we are to believe that a constitution would gain the cooperation and submission of the Left and the High Court in constraining their leverage over the nation.
@Peloni, Basic Laws exist yes. Way too easy to overturn. This needs to change as part of a constitution. So what would we gain by requiring a high threshold – a Knesset supermajority – to change constitutional rules
@Rafi
The High Court doesn’t care about the Basic Laws. You say they are way too easy to overturn, as if there is any basis on which to do so that wouldn’t likewise befall a constitution passed by the Knesset. The problem isn’t a lack off tools on the books which would restrain the High Court, it is a lack of restraint by the High court to recognize even the most foundational aspects of the political govt to act independent of the High Court’s whimsical decisions.
In any event, as I noted previously, while there are now a growing number of warring fronts rising against Israel, this is the wrong context to even consider this.
We will see what comes next, but the chances of passing a constitution in the current environment is nearly zero and the likelihood that High Court would not choose its own judgement as it contrasts with any constitution which might be passed is likely even lower.
@Peloni you are entitled to your opinion!
Thank you Rafi,
In fact, this is a very important topic, which should be addressed by people willing to engage in such concerns as I have raised here without being too upset by differing views while sharing their own. In sharing my thoughts, such as they are, I was actually hoping you might actually dissuade me of my perspective. For a very long time I was a committed and ardent advocate of developing a constitution, but as I noted previously, I was convinced otherwise. Unfortunately, I don’t see your arguments actually addressing what I raised, most of which you failed entirely to address. This is of course perfectly fine, as you are entitled to your own opinions as well.
Still, perhaps someone else who agrees with you will be willing to address what I wrote with their thoughts on the matter.
@Peloni, I will address points as I feel they should be addressed. I copied an article from an Israeli legal scholar on the topic. I found those views very persuasive. Your views not so much and not worth going point by point in argument.
@Rafi
@sebastian @ peloni
Israeli court took power because there is no constitution delineating separation of powers. That is precisely what needs to be done. Create Constitution delineating separation of powers and incorporating basic laws with a large legal hurdle requiring anything to overturn these, unlike now.
@Rafi
Basic Laws currently exist. They have the weight of Constitutional power. The High Court does not recognize its authority being limited by these Basic Laws and it would likewise not recognize the limitations of the constitution for the same reason. It is that simple. It doesn’t matter why the court feels it is empowered to do so, just that it does feel it is empowered to do so.
@Rafi
@Sebastien
Two things to consider here regarding the constitution issue. First, as Sebastien correctly notes, the only value which a legal agreement such as would be found in a constitution is that the court would not exercise its well established temerity to rip apart any constitution which contrasts with their use of arbitrary judgements. We know that the current constitution is represented by established Basic Laws, and that the High Court deemed its authority high enough to actually judge the value of Basic Laws. Hence, a constitution would be no more instrumental in taming the arbitrary arrogance of the rule by Judiciary than exists today.
Second, as KEREN WEINSHALL-MARGEL explains in her article, the time in which constitutions are rarely adopted during times of harmony, and that they are “usually born after wars, crises, and upheavals”. Indeed, if you look into the history of the original attempt to form a constitution, you will find that it was determined that the 1948 war was not the time to do so as there were 5 armed fronts waging war against Israel. Similarly, how many armed fronts are facing the nation today? 7-8 depending on how you count them. This is not even including the rising threat of the radical Sunni axis being formed around the Mecca Agreement, nor the consuming threats being waged by the Americans in demanding yet another run at the existential Two State Solution, not to speak of the implications of the Muslim Brotherhood having influence in the halls of power and the public streets all over the world.
Hence, even by Weinsall-Margel’s own statement, now is simply not the time to pursue such a destabilizing effort as the passage of a constitution, at least IMO.
Perhaps there will never be a perfect moment for such an undertaking, but the lack of perfection or of harmony is not the basis of any objection to tackling what has waited nearly 80 years already. The rule of law has no reflection in the legal parlance of the nation, and until that changes, adopting a constitution will accomplish nothing positive, but all the negatives will be brought to bear at a time in which unity and not division is vital to the nation’s survival, again, IMO.
It is interesting that Ben Gurion came to reflect upon the notion that there was a benefit in having no such document which might constrain the nation in some way as to threaten its survival in a future age. I honestly never agreed with BG’s premise on this point, at least, not until these past several years when I have came to grasp the full gambit of threats which are rising against us in this current age from literally every corner of the globe.
Just my thoughts of course.
@Peloni, Rafi Written treaties, as well, can be a two-edged sword, at best, eg, Turkey as a member of NATO, Hudnas in general. The Abraham Accords helped Israel in the recent rounds in which Iran sent every flying weapon it had at Israel, but much of the time they and other written treaties have only served to tie Israel (and America’s) hands and subject them to endless lawfare, and in Israel’s case, Concepzia going all the way back to Israel signing resolution 242 and the subsequent slippery slope of one-sided concessions carved in stone but just for Israel.*
—
* humor
Oslo in a nutshell.
https://youtu.be/ftt4f2H3GDs?is=PlFZXJQZ6HGYuI2b
—-
Actually, I think the problem before now has not been too frequent change but the absence of meaningful change
@Sebastien
I agree.
@Peloni post censored by algorithm and disappeared.
@Sebastien
Thanks. They are back.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-905751
@Rafi
@Rafi
@Rafi The Israeli Supreme Court and Attorney General are an unelected, self-appointing non or post-Zionist left wing clique who think they are above the law and that their arbitrary opinions constitute the law. And they are corrupt. Remember the allegations against the incoming Chief Justice and the Attorney-General covering up her son’s allegedly stealing the body armor of a lone soldier. And now this:
https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/israel-news/2586515/massive-cover-up-high-court-judge-yitzchak-amit-oversees-burial-of-worst-scandal-in-israeli-history.html
Moreover, even in the U.S., policies change radically depending on which party or faction holds power making it hard for allies and prospective allies to trust the U.S.
And judges who politicize the law arbitrarily.
And that’s without legitimate and unresolvable differences in interpretation. Hence my joke:
““The Second Amendment says: “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”
* Constitution of United States of America 1789 (rev. 1992)
Anti-Gun advocates point out that the army and national guard meets the requirements for a well regulated Militia and say the the last part is just an add on.
Pro-Gun advocates point out that the term, “well-regulated” was used differently in the eighteenth century and referred to individual self-control, as well as to the point that the volunteer militia was formed in opposition to the official military which was used as a tool of oppression. Moreover, they say that the last part is the key and the preamble is the add-on.
Half the country is pro-gun and Half the country is anti-gun.
In whichever half, one of the factions is a minority, it will need to do lots of outreach (80’s euphemism for agit-prop.)
Outreach requires funding.
Benefit concerts are a time-tested method of fundraising.
Bach is always popular.
If a single appellation for benefit concerts is used by both sides, it will gather resonance through public familiarity.
So how about:
“The Well Regulated Clavier.”
—
I wrote this and posted it online ten years ago to no response. Recently, I’ve been hearing from both left (Palestinianist) and right (Pro-Pahlavi, Israel and America) demonstrations, in short, pro and anti-Jihad, the old left slogan, “Hey Hey, Ho Ho, something something has to go.”
😀 Meaningful coincidence or was somebody actually listening, this reader wants to know?
It’s amazing how many political policies seem to have started as somebody’s joke or screenplay. (Though less so, when you take into account the revolving door between Hollywood and Washington.)
For example:
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1754573185964229/?fs=e&fs=e
And the fate of the war with Iran hinges, in large part, on whether the Dems will have the votes to invoke the War Powers Act and endlessly impeach Trump!
All the issues you point out is exactly why Israel needs a:
@Rafi “A comprehensive constitution requires agreement on values, identity, and vision. And at present, we do not have it.”
Isn’t that the elephant in the room? Doesn’t it go all the way back to the founding of the state and the pre-state period? That, plus judges and an attorney general that regard themselves as above the law and have the influence with leaders of key sectors to illegally paralyze the country?
But, for the urgent and so far unattainable need for judicial reform, would there be such an urgent need for a Constitution?
How would you accomplish this?
I know an older Jewish-American Progressive with a “friend” in Israel writing to her, who actually asked me, “Do you believe Israel is a Jewish state?”
And I knew another with Israeli friends who screamed at me that she didn’t want Israel to become a Jewish Iran.”
Jabotinsky wrote in 1940, “I can vouch for there being a type of Zionist who doesn’t care what kind of society our “state” will have; I’m that person. If I were to know that the only way to a state was via socialism, or even that this would hasten it by a generation, I’d welcome it. More than that: give me a religiously Orthodox state in which I would be forced to eat gefilte fish all day long (but only if there were no other way) and I’ll take it.”*
86 years later, Israel lives. Now what? What’s your view?
* https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/warrior-of-zion/
Netanyahu Stands firm in demanding that Hamas will be fully disarmed and that the terror tunnels will be destroyed before IDF makes any withdrawal. Also targeted strikes in gaza will continue.
https://knessetjeremy.com/ Click on foregoing to link the Jeremy’s Knesset overview and breakdown of all recent poll results
OSINT613
https://youtu.be/T2m7fswxSF8?is=sAFPb2XyPxpi00ar
US is removing some of its refueling planes from Ben Gurion airport, presumably in anticipation of a latest round of Hudnas.
Event in Southern Lebanon leading to many injured, possibly 12 or more, has lead to an Israeli air strike in Southern Lebanon after weeks of no such responses.
Meanwhile Israeli talks with the Lebanese were cut short today, reportedly due to the leaks coming from the Lebanese delegation.
Don’t look at these two events as being unrelated. Kann news is reporting as such, and noting that the Lebanese are trying to tie continued negotiations on IDF limiting any responses to being attacked.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu: Trump is a great friend of ours, and we appreciate the efforts against Iran’s aspirations – but the existence of Israel is not negotiable.
OSINT613
“stability in the right-wing bloc with 62 mandates”
https://www.c14news.com/article/1486824
Pro Iranian militia in Iraq are threatening to invade Syria if Syrian forces acts against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Jelani’s government has threatened to respond to any attack on Syria from Iraq.
Key Takeaways (Last 7 Days) of all Israeli Pollsters combined polls
Likud and Yashar are tied or nearly tied in most mainstream polls at 22–23 seats each.
Bennett’s Together party is slipping slightly, now around 13–15 seats.
Right–Religious bloc: typically 49–53 seats in mainstream polls.
Center–Opposition bloc: typically 52–57 seats.
Arab parties: consistently 9–12 seats.
Channel 14 and Direct Polls continue to show significantly stronger numbers for Netanyahu’s bloc than all other pollsters.
No poll shows either bloc reaching 61 seats, meaning coalition-building remains highly uncertain.
– Mark Twain, June 2, 1897. New York Journal.
@Rafi
humor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4Uv4ftekaI
@Peloni Post evaporated..
Prediction Markets in many cases have more been accurate than pollsters in predicting future elections results. So, I did a little research where Polymarket and Kalshi currently stand on the Israeli election upcoming in Oct 2026.
https://www.c14news.com/article/1483886
Averaging all pollsters together of their polls in the last 8 days:
Party Averages (rounded to nearest tenth)
Party Average Seats
Likud 24.8
Yashar (Eisenkot) 22.2
Together (Bennett–Lapid) 12.0
Yisrael Beytenu 8.9
Democrats 9.8
Shas 8.0
UTJ 8.1
Otzma Yehudit 8.0
Religious Zionism 4.8
Arab parties (combined) 10.3
? Average Bloc Totals
Right–Religious Bloc
(Likud + Shas + UTJ + Otzma + Religious Zionism)
Likud 24.8
Shas 8.0
UTJ 8.1
Otzma 8.0
Religious Zionism 4.8
?? Average Right–Religious Bloc = 53.7 seats
Center–Opposition Bloc
(Yashar + Together + Democrats + Yisrael Beytenu)
Yashar 22.2
Together 12.0
Democrats 9.8
Yisrael Beytenu 8.9
?? Average Center–Opposition Bloc = 52.9 seats
Arab Parties (non?aligned)
10.3 seats
? Summary
Both major blocs average almost identical strength:
Right–religious 53.7 vs. Center–opposition 52.9
Arab parties average 10.3, holding the balance in most polls.
Likud’s wide range (20–32) compresses to a stable 24.8 average.
Yashar is extremely consistent across pollsters: 22–23, averaging 22.2.
Current polling is reflecting that it will be difficult to form government. Since new parties can form until September 7th, that will also possibly impact results. Polls are always an indicator in time. So, the closer to the election the polls the more likely they could be more accurate.
I once got a laugh out of a statistics major with this quote.
Rahm Emmanuel -“23 state solution”
Yesh Atid 23 seats
Ra’am And Yesh Atid (Eisenkoot)
“23 skidoo meaning” ”
A coincidence or a tell? You tell me.
Yesh Atid MK to join Ra’am as #2 on the list.
humor
Coffee, tea, or capitulation? Treason, anyone?
Yesh Atid is Eisenkot’s party
Correction:
Please note that the link to the Regavim report on the “Settler Violence” is being added at the top of the Left Column for easy reference. Please share this document with family and friends. The Two State Delusionists are making a new push, and as expected, they are using the false narrative of Settler Violence to make the case to the Washington Peace Processors in favor of Washington’s all time favorite failed policy.
IRGC’s Tasnim suspended from Twitter.
Trump is now saying he is going FU Iran. Let us hope his actions exceed his threats!
Iranian missiles strikes US base in jordan.
Consequences for European insanity continues:
-OSINT613
Until Europe recognizes and acts on the incompatibility of its Arab emmigre with European society, the conquest of Europe will proceed unabated.
Latest Polls summary:
Yashar (Eisenkot) is consistently leading or tied with Likud in most polls.
Likud ranges 20–23 seats in most mainstream Israeli polls (except Direct Polls, which tends to show higher Likud numbers).
Together (Bennett–Lapid) is sliding, hitting 14 seats in the newest Kantar poll.
Center–opposition bloc is ahead in most surveys, typically 59–61 seats, though Direct Polls shows the right–religious bloc ahead.
PM suitability is now essentially Netanyahu ? Eisenkot, a major shift.
Someone else wrote this and I strongly concur:
https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-soros-network-captures-hungary-through-magyar/
By the way, has anybody noted the irony of the Hungarian (Magyar) equivalent of an anti-MAGA candidate and now national political leader having the name, “Peter Hungarian?”
“eddie murphy the name you know”
” +1 You are referencing Eddie Murphy’s iconic political satire, “The Distinguished Gentleman” (1992). In the film, Murphy plays Thomas Jefferson Johnson, a charismatic Florida con man who takes advantage of a deceased incumbent’s popularity to win a seat in Congress. His brilliant, cynical slogan for the campaign was exactly: “Vote Jeff Johnson. The name you know.”‘
What’s more, St. Peter’s Crown is symbolically regarded as the embodimemt of Hungarian sovereignty. Every regime for the last 1100 years has sought to possess it. At times was hidden.
How likely is it it that his being sponsored by the Soros group to fomemt a color revolution is a coincidence?
All that’s left would be for this or some other Pope to elevate him to sainthood and he’d be Saint Peter Hungarian.How’s that for messing with a people’s minds.
Correction: That’s St. Stephen’s Crown. St. Peter was the founder of the Roman Catholic Church, if I remember correctly.
“ Oh, that’s different. Neever mind.” – Gilda Radner
Though I wonder if
it might have had some impact, Hungary being a historically Roman Catholic majority country.
I’m glad Judit Polgar turned down Peter Magyar’s offer to be the Jewish figurehead for this anti-Israel post-Orban Hungarian regime that just swept into power, suspiciously if you ask me.
I usually despise documentaries but the one about her on Netflix is terrific. And fun.
“Queen of Chess”
https://www.netflix.com/us/title/81749912?s=i&trkid=13747225&shareType=Title&shareUuid=58676B34-3D1B-4405-8F79-B2C8CDCA920E&trg=cp&unifiedEntityIdEncoded=Video%3A81749912&vlang=en
@Sebastien
Bravo Judit Polgar!
If the following comes to fruition, I believe it could be potential a very positive change to the Israeli political scene.
Ayelet Shaked and Yuli Edelstein in Talks to Form New Right?Wing Party
Reports indicate that former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked and Knesset member Yuli Edelstein are in advanced talks to merge and form a new right?wing political party ahead of Israel’s October 2026 elections
http://www.ynetnews.com
According to sources close to both figures, they have been fully coordinating on strategy, party principles, and recruitment plans for the new entity
The proposed party aims to unite mainstream right?wing voters dissatisfied with the current coalition and modern Orthodox Israelis who do not align with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party
The Jerusalem Post
Edelstein, who has signaled his intention to leave Likud, is reportedly considering two possible paths:
Completing 61 mandates for a “change bloc” that could form a government, or
Forcing a broad unity government to separate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from ultra?Orthodox influence
http://www.ynetnews.com
Shaked has made it clear she will return to politics only within a right?wing party, ruling out joining Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s “Together” coalition, which she says is not right?wing
Israel News
. She has also called for a right?wing alliance with Bennett and Avigdor Liberman to strengthen the opposition bloc against Netanyahu
Yahoo
Yahoo
.
While the talks are still in the early stages, the combination of Shaked and Edelstein — both experienced right?wing leaders — could signal a significant shift in the political landscape, potentially creating a new force in the anti?Netanyahu camp.
Rafi
Just what the Right needs, more parties to waste more votes.
As the Left is solidifying their efforts, such as they are, the Right is splintering. Unity is what brought the Right to power with 64 seats. How will the splitting parties and new parties compensate for the loss of seats.
Raffi clearly you are no fan of Israel’s best PM, Bibi.
You lack pragmatism. All those on the ‘right’ that you mention (Ayelet, Bennet) have proven themselves to be inept, unreliable and compromised. You likely despise the Haredim too. More so than the ayatollahs, right?
With your thinking, (as Peloni rightly points out – you’ll just split the votes on the Right), the worst possible leaders (like Lapid) can be the next PM, G-d forbid.
I love the Haredim that have the guts to serve in the IDF, in-spite of strong over the top opposition from many fellow Haredim. I love Zionists and especially those that can take a different point of view without attacking a fellow Zionist.