By Arlene Kushner June 9, 2022
On Thursday, Times of Israel editor David Horowitz wrote: “Netanyahu and the right are about to regain power; they will hold it for a long time.” (Emphasis added here and below)
For which I say Thank Heaven.
Continued Horowitz, “The final blow to the coalition could come from many directions, but come it will. And Israel will get a government of the ideological hue most of the electorate voted for a year ago.”
That reference to the ideological hue most Israelis voted for – i.e. to the right — is of major significance. All of Bennett’s babbling about his having a government in accordance with the will of the people has been just that: babbling. I am not sure if he has been trying to convince the people or himself.
It was Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked of Yamina, and Gideon Sa’ar, of New Hope, who prevented the formation of a right wing government; they refused to join a coalition led by Netanyahu.
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Whatever their personal animosities and discontents, in doing this, they subverted the will of the people. Bennett and Lapid stitched together a number of factions from right to left, and including, horrifically, an Islamic Movement party as well as Meretz, which is not truly Zionist, to secure a coalition with sufficient mandates (seats) to govern. It has been an abysmal failure. Lapid may have repeatedly admonished the members of this coalition to avoid taking ideological stances that would be divisive. But in the end this did not, could not, hold. And this, my friends, is what the opposition understood when they voted against the Judea & Samaria law, which applies Israeli civil law to citizens in Judea & Samaria. It then fell to the governing coalition to pass it, but there were elements within that are ideologically opposed and refused to vote for it. (How could the Islamic Movement justify to its religious advisors and constituents strengthening the position of Jewish settlers in Judea & Samaria?) Had the opposition voted for it, the refusal of some members of the coalition to vote for it would not have generated a crisis. But a crisis is what we now have. ~~~~~~~~~~ Attention has been focused on Sa’ar, who is absolutely livid about the failure of the coalition to enforce discipline and support the legislation. Sa’ar has declared the government at an end. For some days, rumor – which Sa’ar denied — had it that he was negotiating with Likud to rejoin that party. By yesterday, Sa’ar declared that he couldn’t do that, an indication that he indeed had been thinking of it. He says it’s because Likud pushed too hard, and now he remembers why he left that party. But it could just as well be because he pushed hard on a number of demands in exchange for his re-joining Likud, and the party was not sufficiently forthcoming. Reports that Netanyahu’s offer stands, with a deadline, are still floating. When the government falls, if the offer still stands (it may not) Sa’ar may choose to move to Likud because he knows how dim his party’s chances will be in the future. ~~~~~~~~~~ But now the focus is on Nir Orbach of Yamina. |
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According to a report that came out yesterday, Orbach was furious with Ra’am because of its failure to support the coalition. The partnership with Ra’am, he said, was a “failed experiment that is now over.” https://www. He has not acted yet, it is said, because of his “intense loyalty” to Bennett. He came into Yamina in the first place because of that loyalty. There are two directions in which he might head now. One, he might move over to Likud. Netanyahu has been courting him, as well, and has reportedly offered him a position, should there be an election. But the other way for Orbach to go is to join with Ayelet Shaked and Abir Kara (a deputy minister in the prime minister’s office, pictured). |
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There has been talk for some time about the three of them bolting the coalition together and forming a new party (three is the minimum required). That new party would join a coalition headed by Likud, thereby making possible a constructive no-confidence action: there would be sufficient mandates so that a new government would be formed without elections. That would likely best serve the country. Reportedly Shaked has asked Orbach not to do anything yet, but wait a couple of days for an “orderly” exit. ~~~~~~~~~~ Netanyahu apparently prefers elections. According to a poll published on Tuesday evening, if elections were to be held now, the right-wing bloc would reach 60 seats, with 35 seats for Likud – up from the current 29, while Religious Zionists would go from their current seven seats to 10. What these numbers tell us is that dissatisfaction with the current situation has moved the electorate further right. Netanyahu assumes that with campaigning it would be very possible to bring in at least one additional mandate in order to establish a governing coalition. ~~~~~~~~~~ One other factor to mention: If the government falls (which means a no-confidence vote has succeeded) because of the defection of someone from Yamina or New Hope, and elections are triggered automatically for three months hence, Yair Lapid will assume the position of prime minister until after the elections and resolution of a new coalition. This is per the agreement between Bennett and Lapid. Orbach is reportedly reluctant to generate this situation by joining Likud, and he is not without reason. Among other things, Lapid is a “two-state” advocate. ~~~~~~~~~~ Good Heavens! It has just made news that MK Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi (Meretz) claims that Foreign Minister Yair Lapid had promised to allow the return of the residents of two Arab villages in the Galilee who fled during Israel’s War of Independence in 1948. (This is ‘right of return.’) What we do know is that this will not happen. If at all he did intend to make this happen, it would have been on the quiet. |
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If Orbach moves with Shaked and Kara to help in the establishment of a new coalition that would take over immediately, Lapid would not assume the role of prime minister, which would be a very good thing. On the other hand, Orbach is mindful of the fact that he has more value to Likud if his leaving brings down the government. If he waits too long and the government collapses, he will have less leverage. ~~~~~~~~~~ There you have the situation, in all of its confusion and complexity. If you find your head spinning, you are not alone. You have here an overview of the major alternatives for how matters may evolve, and who the major players of import may be. But that’s of today. Some unanticipated situation may yet arise. Ari Deri of Shas has declared that a surprise will be coming very soon. It is all so unstable now, you will find news breaking hourly regarding some aspect of this situation. But what seems fairly certain is that it will only be a matter of weeks, at most, until the government falls. And for this we can be grateful. ~~~~~~~~~~ There is still reason to believe that either the Judea & Samaria law will pass when Sa’ar brings it again to the plenum, as he says he will, or an alternate way of protecting Jewish residents of Judea & Samaria will be utilized to afford those residents necessary legal protection. There are temporary methods being discussed. I do not believe they will be left unprotected. Here you see the community of Elon Moreh in Samaria: |
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~~~~~~~~~~ Let us move, then, to some other good news. I recently had a conversation with someone in a counter-terrorism unit of the IDF, who was enormously reassuring. Our military is keenly aware of immediate dangers and prepared to take strong action. ~~~~~~~~~~ During the last month, major military exercises have been conducted that simulate multi-front war situations. They have been among the largest and most extensive military exercises ever conducted by the IDF. During these exercises, dubbed “Chariots of Fire,” the IDF sought to simulate multi-arm combat scenarios in the air, at sea, on land and the cyber front. A week ago, exercises were held in unfamiliar terrain in Cyprus, in cooperation with the Cypriot National Guard. In the link below you will find a video of some of those exercises and a statement by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi. |
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General Kochavi said that what was seen in the exercises is professionalism and excellent spirit. There was cooperation between the branches of the military based on mutual trust and comradery. “This is true power!” he declared, and he is so right. It is this spirit that makes our military special. I could not be prouder. https://www. ~~~~~~~~~~ At the same time, Israel is seriously upgrading its ability to attack Iran in the future. “The Israeli Air Force has developed a new capability to be able to fly its F-35 stealth fighter jets from Israel to the Islamic Republic without requiring mid-air refueling. “In addition, the IAF recently integrated a new one-ton bomb into the arsenal of weapons used by the F-35s (known in the IAF as the ‘Adir’) that can be carried inside the plane’s internal weapons compartment without jeopardizing its stealth radar signature.” |
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~~~~~~~~~~ And my last piece of good news for now: President Biden, who is not a friend to Israel, was due here for a visit this month. He would have come with intentions of applying pressure on the government to be more “accommodating” to the Palestinian Arabs. This is a side benefit from the prospect that the government is falling. There is no point in coming under these circumstances, is there? ~~~~~~~~~~ See my new website: https://arlenefromisrael.info |
@Edgar
Regarding Shaked’s actions, it is likely not being done without Bennett’s support, perhaps Bennett’s exclusion is temporary, or perhaps it is a requirement of Bibi. Either way, though, the govt is done, and there is no saving it. It will transfer to a Right wing govt or it will fall and Lapid will become caretaker PM – either way, Bennett’s control is over. so there is really no betrayal by Shaked in trying to save the country from the rule by that toaster-brained Lapid.
Well, he needs 61, but yes, more is much better, especially given the fact that Netanyahu can hardly trust many of these well toxified wayward men of the Right, given to fantasies and experiments that have caused so much damage. So welcome them all, but he needs only 61.
You are quite correct that Yamina and New Hope needs to be retired into the dustbin of history, but Yamina seems to hold onto some strength, which I will never understand how given all they have done. New Hope and Saar, though, are the reason the wayward Right went wayward. Saar single-handedly blocked the formation of a Right wing govt, and they seem to be consistently polling below the minimum level, which is well earned and a strong reason for him to take whatever Bibi will offer him to put off the election as long as possible.
I was pleased to see that Raam and Meretz are polling below the minimum level as well, but for that to persist is too much to hope for, but I will hope for it in any case. The spawn of the vile Al Banna have no right to be present in Israel, much less in the Knessett, much less in the govt collecting their bribes as they mask their presence as an experiment of coexistence when it was nothing more than a bribe paid to keep Bibi out of govt. No matter how little his detractors consider of Bibi, I can not accept that they would honestly support placing the Brotherhood and Meretz into power in his place, yet they did so, and paid a stately priced bribe to make it stick for just one year. Absolute brigandry.
@PELONI-
Yes I saw that comment about Shaked perhaps forming a new party, really a trio, and join Netanayahu. But in that case having been “fiercely loyal” (and she has been, to such an extent that he’s either a Svengali, or is blackmailing her) she wouldn’t be fiercly loyal any more.
Politics have so many ramifications , and remind me of the glittering glass many-sided ball which used to hang in ballrooms to reflect a spotlight.
Lieberman seems to have relapsed into semi-somnabulance and comfort in his sufficient seats to be an MK. He has far less intrusive over the past several years. We hardly hear anything from him-other than his usual mantra.
Why wouldn’t Netanyahu need “all” of Yamina? but would still need other support…? The more right wingers the better. {Excluding Bennett, who is beyond the Pale, but with politics being so dirty it’s not a “given”}
., I find it hard to believe that due to all their “baggage” either Yamina or New Hope will pass the threshold.
@Edgar
@peloni
If you check the actual record of Netanyahu (especially) and the opposition parties, you will come to the same conclusion but you cannot face it – that’s why you will use any excuse to rationalize their behavior and to believe their political games are true.
Divide-and-rule technique does not require unity, it is used to weaponize for the benefit of the rulers the human inclination to create disunity, to blame others, to search for “the enemies of the people”, etc.
Though in the film they use F-18s ruling out F-35s but the film was actually shot in 2018-19 so maybe they were thinking of the original F35s not the F35i.
The news about the F-35 is a game changer. Is this one ton bomb a bunker buster? Israel had needed America for refueling and bunker busters.
Just saw Top Gun Maverick. Read one article that said the IDF might use such a strategy against Iranian nuclear sites and another that said it was unrealistic.
@Edgar
Yes, I think LIAR is a better descriptor for Sa’ar.
It didn’t say that he would be caretaker PM but only that he “demanded that he become caretaker prime minister” – having brought this govt of self interest into being and causing all the damage he has in doing so, he still holds the arrogance to demand to be PM, now that is chutzpah. Luckily Bibi refuse, but we will see if that holds up. Bibi doesn’t need all of Yamina and New Hope, but he needs more then just Yamina. My recollection is that he needs all but 4 from the two parties – but don’t quote me on that – if he is not to include Gantz (please don’t) or that idiot Lapid. I am presuming that Lieberman and Bibi hold a mutual lack of interest in breaking bread once again, but, hey, it’s politics, so anything is possible…but probably not that.
Here is the direct quote from Jpost article (it was about halfway down):
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-709067
Shaked is fiercely loyal to Bennett, and that has been to her and everyone’s great disadvantage. She has clearly been uncomfortable with much that has taken place in this govt, but I see this is true with many of the members, or some of them, at least. I read yesterday that the Netanyahu’s (read as Sarah) and Shaked had mended their differences, but I read that as a Bibi olive branch to Shaked, and Shaked shortly afterwards released a statement aserting that
which is utter twaddle. My own personal take on this is that this was a poker face bluff, waiting for either greater support to offer Bibi from her wayward friends in Yamina and New Hope, or she is waiting for a better set of promises from Bibi to set the deal.
Shaked is rumored to be forming a separate party from willing members of Yamina and New Hope that can join a coalition with Likud and the Right wing parties. The members can’t join Likud directly, or the current govt will fall before the new govt forms and Lapid will become caretaker PM(let’s not do that). They need to form a party so that the new party can join a new coalition with the opposition parties to get 61 votes and that would prevent the current govt from falling, as it will be replaced with a new govt…or that is my understanding of the situation in any case.
@READER-
This is a very strange comment -even for you. Surely you don’t mean it…How could you mean it ?? Not one single genuine LIKUD member, nor indeed right winger would ever contemplate such a thing.
You don’t even give a single rational or other, reason. ……and it’s spelled “debbil” that is is you’re doing a Flip Wilson imitation.
Was it Augustine or Benedict who was reputed to have jumped into a thorn bush to escape the temptation to “sin”. I’m not hinting, but…….
{you sound like Sa’ar in a “cloak of many colours”.}
In the changing, shifting, sands of international politics, where the cards are always stacked against Israel, not matter what, Only Netanyahu possesses the political footwork to keep Israel safe, stable, and constantly enlarging it’s horizons to have become a world class power in the past 10 years, with increasing influence and desirability by formerly enemy nations to negotiate and make treaties-even ally ..
At least, this is what he has shown ever since he became PM. !!t
A very detailed and uplifting article.
Sa’ar has become a comedian (albeit unconscious) saying that because LIKUD pushed too hard to get him to rejoin the Party, than he now remembers why he left it.
I say “comedian”, although I could just as easily,… easier, say “liar”, because it has been broadcast to all and sundry for several years how much he hates Netanyahu and would NEVER sit on the same side.
PELONI-
I didn’t see the JP mention of Sa’ar being the interim PM in case of new elections. I saw only the mention above in Arlene’s article that Lapid would be (Heaven forbid) the interim PM.
And, knowing (at least I think we all believe) that Shaked is a committed right winger, what is keeping her in this ferfoulte conglomeration of assorted anti-Israel misfits….? A mystery to me. Her proven competence assures her of a Ministry in any govenment.
@Reader
Divide and rule requires the notion that there is no division present, and thereby the insert of a trick renders the division, which weakens the nation. The divisions are quite real, tangible and need no trick to bring the dividing lines into existence.
Let us presume you are correct, which I state you are not, but just for the sake of not running on the same well tread earth once more with the same outcome, tell me why you would support the continuation of a govt that holds anti-Zionist and Brotherhood members in such dependency that they have ceded the Arabs great power along with gifts of state cash and Jewish land, just after the War of Riots and Rockets and just before the most recent series of murders of Jews? Why would you support a govt that gives the Arabs legitimacy in the Negev and billions of dollars? Why would you support a govt that can not provide the passage of the most fundamental bills essential to the states existence? These are thing you have never addressed as you always deflect to Bibi or suggest I my political philosophy is too shallow. I am most keen to understand you support of this bandit govt, so, if you would, forget Bibi for the time it takes you to respond to these questions, and just tell me why you would support what you are supporting without using the excuse or explanation of why you oppose what you are opposing. Serious question if you will humor my curiosity.
As soon as Netanyahu is back, there will be a “Palestinian” state but his loyal fans will say that the debil made him do it and will keep rejoicing.
There is no “right wing” in the Knesset.
This is a trick divide-and-rule term.
Excellent summary and explanation by Kushner! Complete with the best news I have heard in far too long. It does appear that Sa’ar is ever to play the worm in every apple, as he barters a repair of his betrayal with demands of being allowed to play caretaker PM til the election evicts him once and for all (per Jpost)…Well, whatever it takes this govt must fall and as soon as possible and without Lapid at the helm.
Lapid has shown his inability to provide even the rational mindset to perform the role of FM, and he would likely have declared war on Russia, Hungary and Poland within a week should he ever become PM. Additionally, he is ever the baby seeking its TSS bottle to spout about its marvelous benefits while constantly attempting to resurrect its well earned demise. The fact that there is a question concerning Zoabi’s statement of Lapid’s promise of the Right of Return should contextualize the reality that Lapid is not to be trusted. Not ever. So whatever bargain must be struck with this current version of the kingmaker, Saar, it must be be done, no matter how bitter tasting this worm’s continued salvation might generate. Saar is a villain and must be removed, but Lapid must be held from becoming PM at all costs. I believe Bibi will know best how to thread this needle, as he must.