Gafni and Maklev’s departure — bad news for Netanyahu

Peloni:  Moshe Gafni and Uri Maklev are leaving the Knesset as part of a major shakeup within the United Torah Judaism party, with MK Yaakov Asher expected to replace Gafni as the leader of the Degel HaTorah faction instead of MK Yitzhak Goldknopf who is currently leading the joint list in the Knesset. Yossi Baum‘s dire predictions for the national camp follows on this news.

Yossi Baum | X

Gafni and Maklev’s departure — bad news for Netanyahu

Screengrab via X

• Netanyahu should be very concerned. Yaakov Asher is a person who publicly expressed interest in Gantz from the moment he entered politics, has never shown any particular sentiment toward Netanyahu — unlike Gafni — and has no problem sitting with Eisenkot — Gantz’s political successor at the time.
• Since Yaakov Asher is planning to become Housing Minister, as I already revealed, and the ouster was arranged for this purpose, the implication is that he is planning to enter the coalition. There are two possibilities here: either he is planning to enter a right-wing coalition, or a left-wing coalition. But contrary to what I had thought until now — the new Degel HaTorah will not sit on the fence.
• Thus, the possibility that United Torah Judaism will join the left is unfortunately becoming more real by the moment. I estimate that if this is indeed the option Asher chooses — Degel HaTorah will very much not want to join Yair Golan, but rather there will be a minority government that includes Eisenkot, Bennett (if he passes), Lieberman, Winter (if he passes) — and United Torah Judaism, with Shas sitting on the fence for at least a period and taking no concrete step in either direction.
• According to this scenario, Golan will support the government from outside (or will receive insignificant portfolios and/or Knesset committees and the like), the Arabs will not actively support it but will only join the majority that will prevent Netanyahu from forming a government, and thus — in the absence of an option for Netanyahu to form a government — the aforementioned minority government will be established, with the number of abstentions in the vote to establish the government potentially being the highest in the country’s history.
• Of course, there is also a possibility that Asher will go with the right, but this is not a simple option for him since it is clear to him that the right is unlikely to solve his problem regarding the drafting of Haredim, whereas from the left he is expected to receive industrial peace.
• There is another scenario in which Asher does not go with the left — if Bennett and/or Winter do not pass, and then the total number of seats held by the center-left, which includes the aforementioned parties + United Torah Judaism (and without the Arabs), is still lower than the number of seats held by the right. United Torah Judaism would be willing to enter a government supported by the votes of ‘The Democrats,’ but it is harder to see it entering a government supported by the votes of the Arab parties.
• It is true that I addressed the fact that the Arabs in any case will not be part of such a government but will only join the majority that brings down Netanyahu’s minority government, but it is reasonable that if the gap between the right (without Degel HaTorah) and the center-left + Degel HaTorah is too large — this will create a psychological barrier that will cause Degel HaTorah to go with Netanyahu.
• In other words: the right’s game now of increasing the number of seats more and more vis-à-vis the left is now becoming from ‘worthwhile’ to ‘critical.’ It is reasonable that the question of whether Degel HaTorah will go with the right or the left will be decided mainly around the gap between the blocs and around that same psychological barrier. On the other hand, conversely — if Winter passes and joins the left–United Torah Judaism bloc, and together they have close to 60 seats, the left’s chances increase substantially.
• These possibilities could constitute a temptation for Netanyahu to try to transfer votes from United Torah Judaism to Shas (which is considered safer from his perspective), particularly in attempts to create internal resentment surrounding the ouster of Gafni and Maklev. It will be interesting to follow this in this context, and in general.
• It should be emphasized: these points are written as an initial analysis only; I have not yet checked with Yaakov Asher’s circle where they are headed.
• Let’s hope for the best.