Hezbollah views Israel’s shift away from disarming the group as a strategic win, believing that the Israeli climbdown will benefit its survival and influence in Lebanon.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN |
IDF soldiers and a tank operate in southern Lebanon on March 21, 2026. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Hezbollah appears to be keenly listening to recent Israeli reports that indicate the IDF will not be able to disarm the Iranian-backed terrorist group.
These reports began circulating in the media on Friday and have continued to percolate.
Hezbollah’s supporters are saying that the group is standing on the “threshold of a new phase,” according to a report in Lebanon’s pro-Hezbollah Al Akhbar newspaper.
The terrorist group believes that reports of Israel’s shifting plan in southern Lebanon could work in its favor. As a reminder, Hezbollah was battered in September and October 2024 when Israel struck its leaders and carried out a limited ground invasion.
However, Israel’s new tactic of slow, systematic advances enables groups like Hezbollah to evacuate areas and relocate elsewhere.
Hamas did the same throughout the war in Gaza by moving along with the two-million local population from one place to another.
More to the point, Hamas survived the war and continues to control Gaza. Hezbollah has done the same.
What is Hezbollah’s plan?
The Hezbollah plan since November 2024, when there was a ceasefire, was to withstand the continued Israeli strikes. When Israel responded to Hezbollah fire last month with a large planned offensive, Hezbollah decided to weather the storm again.
Its current plan is to keep up the missile and drone fire on northern Israel. Meanwhile, Hezbollah apparently thinks it will benefit from Israel forcing approximately one million people to flee southern Lebanon. These are mostly Shi’ites, which allows Hezbollah to hide among them in other areas of Lebanon.
Israel’s current tactic in Gaza and Lebanon is to remove the civilian population and create “buffer zone” areas. The result so far – the terrorists move with the civilians.
Since the IDF is not, thereby, cordoning off the terrorists from the rest of the civilian population, this has the effect of cementing the group in power.
This is what happened in Gaza; Hezbollah is gambling on the same occurring in Lebanon’s case.
Per Al Akhbar, “The enemy army admits: Disarming Hezbollah is ‘impossible.’”
Disarmament was always going to be difficult. It usually requires a political process alongside the collection of weapons.
It is unclear if removing one million Lebanese north of the Litani River and pushing Hezbollah further north as well will result in the desired outcome – pressure from the Lebanese government to disarm the group.
Hezbollah clearly thinks that it will not have to disarm.
“The Israeli occupation army admitted that disarming Hezbollah under the current circumstances is not possible and is no longer the goal of the war, and that what is required is to keep the party away from the borders to a depth of about four kilometers, according to… Army Radio,” Al Akhbar said.
If these reports are any indication, Lebanese Hezbollah parliament members are under the impression that if Israel creates a new zone of control in southern Lebanon, it will be repeating the failures of the security zone from 1982 to 2000.
IDF suffered continued casualties when it established that zone. In those days, the military operated among Lebanese civilians and maintained a partner force in southern Lebanon, the Symbionese Liberation Army.
Nowadays, Israel has no partners in Lebanon, and removing all the civilians has likely ensured there will be none.
Israeli officials have said they will raze the villages in southern Lebanon, similar to what was done in Gaza. This will clearly not lead to any support among Lebanese civilians.
Hezbollah will use this in its propaganda.
The terrorist group thrived in Lebanon and grew in the 1980s security zone. It was initially small, and back then, many Shi’ites actually supported Israel when it first invaded southern Lebanon in 1978 and 1982.
Hezbollah was able to use the long Israeli rule in Lebanon to turn people against the Jewish state. As such, Hezbollah views its own success as deeply linked to Israel’s policy.
It appears that another long-term Israeli occupation of Lebanon will benefit Hezbollah. It remains to be seen if this is the case.
There is also concern that Lebanon could become more chaotic and collapse under the pressure of hosting a million displaced people in an already cash-strapped country.
Hezbollah hopes to feed off this chaos in the same way that Iranian-backed groups have benefited from the mayhem in the region for decades.
That said, the optimistic message being pushed by pro-Hezbollah media could prove incorrect in the future.
It is possible that it is putting on a brave face, and the group will suffer funding problems and also weapon supply issues as Iran is weakened. Either way, these are the stakes; what will come next remains unclear.
Case in point. I think left wing deep state actors are trying to sabotage the war effort with fake news. This article from today says just the opposite of the headline here..
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/425079
Or, alternatively, they are using “strategic ambiguity” like Trump, to confuse the enemy at home and abroad. Which is right out of Lao Tsu’s “The Art of War.”
“Star Trek Liar Paradox” (which is a real concept in philosophy)
https://www.startrek.com/videos/q99bm85reoki
Exterminate hezbollah.
If you click on the links in the articles, they contradict each other. Who in the IDF said disarming Hezbollah is unrealistic? Katz said that remains the goal, less than a week ago.