ISIS, Syria, Iraq and – Israel

A close look at what is happening in general terms.

Dr. Mordechai Kedar, INN

Israel, while mourning its sons, is, however, facing a new situation in the Middle East:

1. The Arab world is imploding into itself: our enemies – led by Syria – are drowning within a swamp of blood, fire and tears (this doesn’t make me happy, but it is the objective truth). The Jihadists challenge country after country (Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Lybia, Yemen and while they are at it, Saudi Arabia and Jordan). The “Zionist Enemy” has long ceased to be a unifying element. Arab Nationalism has turned into an empty mantra and Arab solidarity is a fig leaf covering hatred, extremism, conflict and subversion of one regime against another.

2. Those living in Zion, our homegrown Israelis, are sobering up from their “peace” binges”, because they now understand – even if not at the highest possible resolution – that a Palestinian state, if such an entity does arise, will be another Iraq, Syria, etc or end up like Gaza. As time passes, trust in our neighbors corrodes more and more. I was never a fan of this trust, but the man in the Israeli street now asks himself if a Palestinian state will actually stop the ISIS forces if they threaten to cross the Jordan?

I am not ignoring the Iranian threat and Iran’s ability to worm its way into Iraq and Syria in order to advance its own interests on the ruins of those countries. A situation in which Iran expands westward would probably awaken the west because it brings the Shiite radicalism closer to Europe, and it might be backed by nuclear power.

That’s why the general picture, excepting Iran, is one of a geo-strategic improvement as far as Israel is concerned, despite the instability taking over the region. As far as an Islamic State rising in Iraq and Syria, this cannot happen for several reasons:

a. It is impossible to run a modern state by 7th century Sharia law. For example – how does one run a banking system without interest?

b. The world will not allow a state like that to continue because the world fears the terror it will export. No one will do business with that state.

c. They will have to do without some of the Sharia instructions in order to be accepted by the general population and then the conflicts between the pragmatic moderates and the dogmatic fundamentalists will begin. They will begin to battle one another.

d. Every intelligence service in the world has agents inside ISIS because they accept everything that moves. That means that when they start internal fighting they will become extremely vulnerable.

e. What happened in Afghanistan until late 2001 was that al-Qaeda infiltrated the Pakistani dictatorship of Mula Omar like a virus. Al-Qaeda can hardly do that to itself. It needs another governing body to use as a base.

f. ISIS is an organization that lives on conflict, movement, expansion, massacres, revenge on enemies and armed robbery. These fighting bandits do not know how to do anything besides shooting and killing.

That is why I am not worried about the establishment of an Islamic state because even if one arises, it will disintegrate and split up in no time and turn into a few local Emirates under the rule of several warlords.

Despite that, in the event that their advance in Iraqa continues to reap successes, more and more people will join their ranks, and they will have enough strength to take advantage of success in Syria against Assad, in Lebanon against Hezbollah, in Jordan against Abdallah – and will try their luck against Israel.

Their maps include Israel, and there is danger of border skirmishes, with possible forays in Judea and Samaria, because there will be plenty of people there who will want to get on the bandwagon and imitate ISIS’ methods: Is it impossible to shoot from one moving vehicle into an Israeli one on the roads of Judea and Samaria? Is it impossible to position a machine gun on a pickup truck, travel the roads at night and shoot at Israelis and their homes?

And why can’t this scenario be repeated in the Galilee and the Negev?

This scenario is intended to fill Israeli hearts with fear (terror), but that does not establish a state.

If Israel can stand strong in the face of the terror wave that ISIS will create, it will guard its borders.

It is possible that the despicable murders of our beloved three boys as well as last week’s shooting on the Golan – purposeful aim at people working on the fence – is the beginning of this wave.

July 2, 2014 | 4 Comments »

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  1. ISIS advances spoil Turkey’s plans for the Kurds
    Outside of Turkey, Kurds play an important role for Erdogan’s ambitious plan to create a sphere of influence in its south. That role exclusively belongs to the leadership of Iraqi Kurdistan and its president, Massoud Barzani. For instance, when the PYD, a Syrian offshoot of the PKK, challenged the pro-Barzani political party in northern Syria, Erdogan’s government threatened them for months and vowed not to allow a PYD-led administration near Turkey’s borders. When Islamist extremists fought against Kurds in Syria, Ankara either silently blessed the radical militants or ignored the Kurds’ plight

  2. Israeli cabinet’s inaction opens door to surge of violence in Jerusalem and Gaza rocket fire

    debkafile’s sources report that they did in fact decide to hold back from a major military operation in the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minsiter Moshe Ya’alon abd Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz decided that instead of smashing Hamas infrastructure at its home base in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army would continue to pound its networks on the West Bank.
    This decision was the outcome of heavy arm-twisting on the part of Egypt, Qatar and Jordan. They urged Israel to continue to smash Hamas in Mahmoud Abbas’ West Bank domain, but to leave the Islamist organization be in the Gaza Strip.

    By heeding Arab advice on how to respond to the tragedy of three murdered young Israelis, the government found within hours that it had opened the door to unbridled violence both in Jerusalem and against the communities who have the misfortune to live within range of Gazan rockets.

  3. Professor,
    With all due respect, what you are describing is what we see on the surface, it is an ethnocentric geo-political assessment. The article does not explain how the West’s blissful blindness not only facilitated but exacerbated the process of the re-creation of the once defunct Caliphate. The article does not explain that the US’s “war on terror” coupled with the declaration “we are not at war with Islam” de facto eradicated the Iraq-Iran border, now that we talk geo-politics. It installed “democracy-a.k.a.-majority-rule”, translation: let the Shia majority take the lead. You seem to be worried about sharia-banking. I hope that you know that all major Western banks have already “sharia-compliant-finance-departments”. In many Western countries legal-eagles are trying to make laws that facilitate sharia-compliance too. Your assumption about the violence spreading and approaching Israel is correct. People all over the Western world should be afraid, very afraid because if Israel fails the rest will crumble like a house of cards. The West needs to finally understand that the conflict isn’t geo-political. The time has come, unfortunately, for the ummah to re-draw many borders that up until now only slowed down its efforts for the re-establishment of the Caliphate.