Even if the army gets through Passover Seder unscathed, tension in the territories is expected to ratchet up gradually in April and May

By Amos Harel, HAARETZ

Israel’s defense establishment will be focused on the Gaza Strip this week, where mass protests backed by the Hamas government are planned for Friday along the border with Israel. The Palestinians are planning on establishing six to eight big tent camps, housing thousands of people, mostly women and children along the border but some 700 meters from the fence.

Friday is Land Day: The intention is for thousands of Palestinians to remain near the fence until Nakba Day, in mid-May. The overall intention is to protest nonviolently, but there are to be weekly demonstrations near the fence on Friday, culminating in a huge march on Nakba Day. Israel is preparing for large-scale protests that could turn violent, with attempts to cross the border fence and to perpetrate terror attacks (like the recent detonations of explosive devices along the fence).

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By Emil Avdaliani, BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 778, March 23, 2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Though Russia has been gradually increasing its economic and military influence in Lebanon, it is unlikely that Moscow is prepared to irreparably compromise its relations with Israel. Russia faces competition from other actors in Syria, and good relations with Israel can serve its interests there.

The Russian entrance into the Syrian battlefield in 2015 propped up the Assad regime. Moscow has continued to build up its military presence in the country: it has strengthened its bases on the Mediterranean shore, and recently received 49-year leases on Syrian airbase and port facilities. A Russian presence in Syria is thus projected well into the years to come, and by way of securing its long-term position there Moscow has carried out a string of active diplomatic moves in the neighboring countries, first and foremost Lebanon.
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David Gerstman, THE TOWER

The recent appointments of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as National Security Adviser signal that President Donald Trump is intent on fixing, or nixing, the nuclear deal with Iran.

Back in January, Trump said that he would no longer waive sanctions on Iran unless the deal was fixed. The three specific fixes demanded by the president were that the sunset clauses are ended and restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment are left in place, that Iran is prevented from ballistic missile development, and that the weak inspections regime is strengthened.

Pompeo and Bolton are well-placed to insist on these fixes given their past positions.
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By A.J. Caschetta, NEW ENGLISH REVIEW

There’s a new political order taking shape in the Middle East, and it’s shaking up the academic order that has dominated Middle East studies for over three decades. With Iran, Qatar, Turkey, and what’s left of Assad’s Syria on one side, and Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, and Israel on the other, academics are finding new enemies and new allies. Saudi Arabia, once an important ally and benefactor of Middle East specialists, suddenly finds itself subjected to the contempt usually reserved for Israel.

Under the old order, the field of Middle East studies benefitted enormously from what Israeli diplomat Dore Gold calls Saudi Arabia’s “massive campaign to bring Wahhabi Islam to the world.” In 1976, Saudi Arabia made its first donation to an American university: one million dollars to the University of Southern California. Since then, Saudi kings, princes, and oil tycoons have gone in search of cooperative institutions and scholars to lend the imprimatur of a respected university to their “activist philanthropy.”

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by Jonathan Spyer, The New Republic  March 22, 2018

meforum.org/articles/2018/what-a-crown-prince-wants

That final task is the hardest. Saudi and U.S. officials largely agree on the most urgent issues facing the region. They disagree on what is to be done—and, more specifically, who is going to do it.

On re-branding and investment issues, the cheekily nicknamed “MBS” shows every sign of genuine commitment to overhauling core elements in Saudi society and its economy. Saudi Arabia has until now combined dependence on the west with deep internal dysfunction, but the crown prince’s “Vision 2030” strategy for his country aims to change this: diversify the economy, end the dependence on hydrocarbons, and remove some of the ultra-conservative social norms which impede development.
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He’ll do whatever it takes to get it
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BY Colin Kahl, Jon Wolfsthal, FOREIGN POLICY

. Gen. H.R. McMaster is out as Trump’s national security advisor, and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (and current Fox News contributor) John Bolton is in. This is no mere rotation of on-screen personalities in the latest episode of “The Trump Show.” It is a move with potentially profound implications for the direction of U.S. foreign policy. Indeed, Bolton’s ascendance increases the risk of not one but two wars — with North Korea and Iran.

McMaster was no dove. But Bolton falls into an entirely different category of dangerous uber-hawk. Fifteen years ago, Bolton championed the Iraq War, and, to this day, he continues to believe the most disastrous foreign-policy decision in a generation was a good idea. Bolton’s position on Iraq was no anomaly. Shortly before the 2003 invasion, he reportedly told Israeli officials that once Saddam Hussein was deposed, it would be necessary to deal with Syria, Iran, and North Korea. He has essentially maintained this position ever since. Put plainly: For Bolton, there are few international problems where war is not the answer.
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by Yaakov Lappin, IPT March 23, 2018

Throughout its deep involvement in Syria’s civil war, Hizballah did not neglect its ‘second’ and primary front – its south Lebanese border with Israel, which today lies quiet, but could ignite into conflict at any time.

Hizballah has converted an estimated 200 mostly Shi’ite Lebanese villages and towns into military bases. It has packed residential buildings and underground bunkers with surface-to-surface rockets and missiles, and pointed them directly at Israeli cities.

These bases, deliberately embedded in the heart of Lebanese civilian areas, are protected by rings of heavily armed Hizballah cells, trained to engage the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in ambush-style, urban warfare.
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T. Belman. I am guessing that the reason Trump didn’t veto the budget bill is because it provides a big increase in defense spending. He needs a strong military before he needs to build the wall. Immigration could wait for a year but his muscular foreign policy couldn’t.

AIPAC

Our work together just made a difference for Israel’s security and for its future.

Early this morning, the United States Congress passed major pro-Israel legislation as part of its Omnibus Appropriations bill for Fiscal Year 2018.

This legislation includes many critical initiatives that will bolster Israel’s security, including:

• $3.1 billion for U.S. security assistance to Israel, to help our ally defend herself and protect her citizens.
• $705.8 million for missile defense programs, representing $105 million more than last year’s funding level.
• $47.5 million for joint anti-tunneling technologies, a $5 million increase from last year.

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By: Egypt Today staff

CAIRO – 2 December 2017: Under the title “US doesn’t need Qatar air base if Qatar won’t support our fight against terrorism”, the retired U.S. Air Force General and Deputy Commander Charles Wald wrote a report on Friday in which he called on the U.S. to “leave Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air Base just as quickly and painlessly as it arrived,” in the Fox News website.

Wald stated facts proving Qatar’s support to terrorism as he said “Qatar has a long history of providing sanctuary to terrorist leaders, including September 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed”.

He mentioned that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) earlier released documents concerning Osama bin Laden in which it was exposed the deep relations between Qatar and Iran for years. The documents make it clear that bin Laden saw Al Qaeda’s two key patrons as Qatar and Iran.
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T. Belman. This is huge news. It signals that Trump has given up on Turkey and Qatar as allies. He is cementing his relationship with Saudi Arabia. He will also abandon the Hashemite kingdom of Jordan as it is the headquarters for the Muslim Brotherhood. Turkey and Qatar also support the MB. Tilerson was a big supporter of Turkey and Qatar. With Tillerson gone and Boltan in charge of the NSA, Trump is now free to take action in Syria and in Iran.

DEBKA

Plans to speed up the transfer of the big US CENTCOM base in Qatar to Saudi Arabia were approved by President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Muhamed bin Salman when they met at the White House on Tuesday, March 20. This is an earthshaking event for the Middle East, which far transcends US-Saudi relations, say DEBKAfile’s military sources.

They also disclose that, despite repeated denials, the Trump administration is in the process of another momentous move, packing up its air force and quitting Incirlik in southern Turkey, the biggest air base in the region.
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T. Belman. No one can replace the US as the mediator. It never has been an “honest broker”. Til Trump came along, it was always partial to the PA. Trump is the first president to be partial to Israel and the PA and the EU feel betrayed.  Too bad.

In my opinion, Trump has given up on the Palestinian cause and is determined to dictate their future. He will not allow the tail to wag the dog. The PA will last no longer than Abbas and will be done away with. So will UNRWA. It is headed for the dustbin.

I think he considers Jordan to be the solution.  He will get Jordan to assume the role of UNRWA and provide health care and education, sans indoctrination, to all refugees living in Gaza , Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem. Jordan will have to normalize them.

Thus I expect most of the 2 million refugees living in Gaza, J&S and Jerusalem to move to Jordan and then for Israel to annex all the land to the Jordan River plus Gaza.

By Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos

BESA Center Online Debate No. 8, March 22, 2018

Q:     Following the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by US President Donald Trump, President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas is counting on the EU to support his cause. In his January 2018 meeting with EU High Representative Federica Mogherini, he was assured “of the firm commitment of the EU to the two-state solution, with Jerusalem as shared capital of the two states – the State of Israel and the State of Palestine”. However, it remains questionable whether the EU has the necessary gravitas to play a catalytic political role in the peace process. BESA joins the debate by posing the question: Can Mahmoud Abbas achieve anything in Europe?

Respondents: Jonathan Schanzer, Alon Ben-Meir, Roland Freudenstein, Azriel Bermant, and Tsilla Hershco

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POLITICO REPORTS:
“Bolton is a controversial figure on the international stage. He cheered on the 2003 invasion of Iraq, has called for bombing Iran to stop its nuclear program, dismissed the idea of a two-state solution in the Middle East and derided the United Nations, where he once served as U.S. ambassador in the George W. Bush administration. Like Trump, he has an intense wariness of international organizations, and has also questioned the intelligence community’s conclusion that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.”

By Dave Boyer, WASH TIMES

President Trump said Thursday he has hired former ambassador John Bolton to replace White House national security adviser H.R. McMaster.

“I am pleased to announce that, effective 4/9/18, @AmbJohnBolton will be my new National Security Advisor,” Mr. Trump said.

He added, “I am very thankful for the service of General H.R. McMaster who has done an outstanding job & will always remain my friend. There will be an official contact handover on 4/9.”
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By MARTINSHERMAN, IISS

According to Ronald Lauder, Israel must be either perilously insecure; or demographically untenable. This is an utterly false dichotomy.

…the Jewish democratic state faces two grave threats that I believe could endanger its very existence…The first threat is the possible demise of the two-state solution…The second, two-prong threat, is Israel’s capitulation to religious extremists and the growing disaffection of the Jewish diaspora. – Ronald S. Lauder, New York Times, March 18, 2018.

Earlier this week the president of the World Jewish Congress, Ronald Lauder, published an Op-Ed in the New York Times, entitled Israel’s Self-Inflicted Wounds. 
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U.S. negotiator describes talks with European signatories to 2015 deal as “constructive,” says not engaging in contingency planning would be irresponsible • “The Europeans may go out on a limb and still have the U.S. president walk away,” strategist warns.

News Agencies and Israel Hayom Staff

The United States has had constructive talks about the Iran nuclear deal with Britain, France and Germany but is making contingency plans should they fail, the lead U.S. negotiator said on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump gave an ultimatum on Jan. 12 to the European powers, saying they must agree to “fix the terrible flaws” of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or he would refuse to extend the U.S. sanctions relief on Iran that it calls for. U.S. sanctions will resume unless Trump again waives them on May 12.

“We have had constructive talks with the Europeans towards a supplemental agreement but I can’t predict whether we will reach an agreement with them or not,” Brian Hook, the State Department policy planning director, told reporters in a conference call.

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