T. Belman. The Report examined different scenarios as though they were mutually exclusive. But what about the estimated benefits or costs from a failed peace agreement. Furthermore it estimated the benefits to a number of scenarios. Why? Because a peace agreement is so unlikely that other options had to be considered.
The peace settlement it envisages requires the evacuation of 100,000 Jews, but 150,000 is more likely involving a 50% increase in costs and human misery. As for the PA and Israel, neither are interested in allowing 600,000 descendants of the original refugees to enter the new Palestinian state. And I have yet to read that the international community would absorb 2/3 of the cost.
Should Israel have to take over J&S with the failure of the PA it would likely lead to the annexation of all the land. I doubt this was taken into account.
As for Israel doing nothing, they forecast even greater harm due to BDS. I believe they are making unfounded assumptions here. The US would never support sanctions or boycotts. In fact it is now legislating against them. True they acknowledge “The lion’s share of BDS’s economic damage, Ries added, would result from “investment flows” — decisions by capital funds, banks and so on to restrict the amount of money flowing to Israel.” So far, there is no evidence of this happening, quite the opposite.
This study is too academic for me. It merely plays with numbers. It doesn’t factor in the perils and negative consequences.
Two-state deal would put extra $120 billion in Israeli coffers, while Palestinian economy would grow by $50 billion, Rand report says, but absence of deal could cost country billions
By Raphael Ahren, TOI
Israel stands to gain some $120 billion (NIS 460 billion) over the next decade from a peace agreement with the Palestinians based on the two-state solution, according to an extensive new study from an American think tank.
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