Poll: Likud up (27) – Bayit down (11)

Ted Belman. This is good and bad news. The good news is that Likud will be asked to form the government. The bad news is that Yaalon will still be defense minister. In that position he controls the Civil Administration. In that role he has allowed the penetration into Area C by the Arabs backed by the EU. He goes out of his way to prevent Jewish construction. He also supported the government’s policy of quiet for quiet in Protective Edge thereby extending a 5 day war into a 50 day marathon.

By Moshe Cohen, INN

The Geocartographia poll conducted by Professor Avi Degani on behalf of i24 News showed the Likud strengthening further to 27 seats, while Jewish Home had fallen to 11.

Barely a month ago, Jewish Home was polling 17 seats in the upcoming election, with the Likud polling in the low 20s, similar to Zionist Union/Labor. That party remained steady with previous polls, at 24 seats.

It’s likely that some of Jewish Home’s votes were also going to Yahad, the new party headed by Eli Yishai. Several figures associated with religious Zionism are running with Yishai, including former Jewish Home MK Yoni Chetboun. Yishai’s party makes it over the minimum vote limit, reaching four seats.

If the election were held today, Shas and Kulanu would receive seven seats each, the poll shows, while Yisrael Beytenu falls to six, along with Meretz. Yesh Atid would receive 8 seats, as would United Torah Jewry. The third largest faction in the Knesset, according to the poll, would be the United Arab List, with 12 seats.

February 16, 2015 | 6 Comments »

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6 Comments / 6 Comments

  1. @ Bear Klein:
    Anyone using spot and fly “polls” gets emotional peaks or downs trash as information.
    Our poll is cumulative and exclusive. That means that the data adds up and that no repeat voters are allowed to respond.
    I was amused to see that other polls are starting to match ours yet they are hopelessly distorted to fabricate elevated numbers for the Obama-Livni-Hertzog “ticket” and knocking down Bennett’s.

    I also notice that Netanyahu allowed the destruction today of four Jewish buildings. I support his trip but do not trust his plans after election.

  2. @ SHmuel HaLevi 2: Do you think a poll of northern Israel really can be considered valid?

    Does it have a balance by various demographics (religious, Arabs, secular….etc). It is just a running poll and not redone to see for changes (please correct me if I am wrong)?

  3. If they are land line polls they are truly dinosaurs. Getting people to the polls will be extremely important as to what happpens.

  4. @ Ted Belman:
    The young people’s poll up North and now moving also to the center of the state, is based on person to person questions while in supermarkets, bus stations, train stations, Kupot Holim, restaurants, near schools, etc.
    The land lines polls are very much… disconnected.

  5. Steven Plaut writes:

    Want to know why all the election polls in Israel keep getting it so wrong? The polls are conducted among samples of those with land lines. Many many young Israelis have only a cell line and are not included in the samples. Young Israelis fought in Gaza and are far less likely to be leftists than the older chattering classes.

  6. All of a sudden the “polls” are also reporting what our simple poll has been reporting for weeks.
    Except that the “polls” are still trying to tilt things artificially in favor of the Obama ticket.
    Note their “polls” now following our poll…
    On the first column next to the party is our poll numbers posted for quite some time now and in brackets the “polls” from other sources.

    LIKUD 27 (27)
    Obama-Livni-Hertzog-Mozes 19 (23) Not real
    Bait Yehudi 14 (11) Not real
    Islamic Block 12 (12)
    Lapid 9 (9)
    Jewish Orthodox 8 (8)
    Kohalon 7 (7 or 6+)
    Lieberman 6 (6)
    Meretz 6 (5+)
    Shas 5 (6)
    Yshai-Otzmah 5 (4)

    ~118 (both)

    We find 25% of the voters undecided.
    There is a very well paid campaign to stop the Haredi Jews from voting. It is another part of the sabotage plan by the Obama system.
    It is uncanny how the correlation ceases ONLY on the Obama reps ticket and Mr. Bennett’s totals. 🙂
    I believe based on stat analysis that there will be no major shifts. There may be if Netanyahu folds though.