T. Belman. If this is the way the parties will stand after the upcoming election, Netanyu will have no choice but to force the Religious parties to accept Liberman’s legislation. Its either that or leave them out of the government and go with Liberman and Blue and White.
Bibi put all his pressure on Liberman last time around but left the Hareidi parties alone. He should now pressure the religous parties.
New poll shows rightist-religious bloc leading 68-52 – but still lacks majority without Avidgor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would win, again, if new elections were held today – but would still be unable to form a majority right-wing government without the support of Avidgor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party, a new poll shows.
According to a survey conducted by the Maagar Mohot polling agency and released by Radio 103FM Friday morning, if elections for the 22nd Knesset – slated for September 17th – were held today, the Likud would be the largest faction, with 35 seats, the same number the party won in April, prior to a merger with the Kulanu party.
The center-left Blue and White party, however, would fall from 35 seats to 33.
Former Defense Minister Avidgor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party, which refused to help Netanyahu form a government last month unless it backed passage of a new haredi draft law it supported in the 20th Knesset, would rise from the five seats it won in April to eight seats.
The two haredi factions would lose a net of one seat, from sixteen seats combined in the April 9th election to fifteen mandates, with United Torah Judaism retaining its eight seats, and Shas falling from eight to seven.
The Union of Right-Wing Parties would retain its five seats, while the New Right party of Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, which failed to cross the threshold by 1,300 votes in April, would also win five seats.
On the left, the Labor party would narrowly cross the 3.25% electoral threshold with four seats, a decline of two mandates, while the far-left Meretz would gain one seat, rising from four to five mandates.
The two Arab lists would remain stable, with six seats for the Hadash-Ta’al alliance and four for the joint ticket of Balad and the United Arab List.
The libertarian-leaning Zehut party would not pass the threshold.
While the right-wing – religious bloc would win a clear majority, with 68 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Netanyahu would again be unable to form a right-wing government without Yisrael Beytenu, left with 60 seats if the secular-right wing party does not join.
The poll also found that if the Blue and White party is led by MK Gabi Ashkenazi in place of current chairman Benny Gantz, the party would win 35 seats, while the Likud would fall to 33. Despite this change, however, the right-wing – religious bloc would retain an edge.
A plurality of respondents (39%), including 34% of the right-wing – religious bloc say that if the New Right and Union of Right-Wing Parties form a joint ticket for the next election, former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked should lead the new list.
The next most popular candidate is former Education Minister and ex-Jewish Home chief Naftali Bennett, who received the backing of 19% of right-wing voters and 11% of the general public.
Sixteen percent of right-wing voters and eight percent of the general public said current United Right chief MK Rafi Peretz should lead the joint ticket, compared to 14% of right-wing voters and seven percent of the general public who backed National Union chief MK Bezalel Smotrich.
@ Adam Dallgiesh:
Yeah and bye bye Israeli security.
https://www.haaretz.com/misc/article-print-page/.premium-kahol-lavan-s-mission-1.7333663. This is another article in Haaretz that takes a similar view, but for different reasons. Author thinks that Israel should eliminate the draft in favor of a “professional” volunteer army. Better to exempt everyone from draft than force unwilling haredim to serve.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I think they re doing that.in..increments. beginning with the schools, and offering classes to adults also.
@ Bear Klein:
O.K. I spot it sometimes myself and augment to clarify. …
Ted, I don’t have access to Haaretz, but I think you do. There is an article that looks interesting in the June 14 Haaretz about the haredi issue. https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-the-ultra-orthodox-are-starting-to-surrender-1.7369935?utm_source=sphere. Could you publish it here for us? And there was another interesting article about the haredi controversy a a few weeks ago, in which the author argues that the Israeli government should concentrate on integrating the haredim into the economy, not on drafting them into the army. Can you find this article on the Haaretz website as well, and publish it in Israpundit? It is relevant to our debate about the role of the haredim in Israeli society and law.
So the small right wing parties Jewish Home, National Union, New Right, Otzma are trying to find a formula to merge. Prevailing view is that if they agree to have Shaked the head of this technical block they would get the most votes. Guesstimates ~10 plus or minus 2 Seats.
If that happens plus the Haredi (Shas & UTJ) get ~15 plus or minus 1
Then the Likud would need to get around 36 – 40 Seats to be able to pull off a right wing + haredi coalition.
If the vote total is not at least 61 seats from the above parties then a unity government will likely occur. This would include Blue/White, Likud and Yisrael Betenyu (Liberman) and possibly the New Right if they are not part a broad right-wing block.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/june-16-2019/#liveblog-entry-2095242
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Barkat likely has ambitions of being Prime Minister some day. I think he was of the new Israeli politicians who has a lot of potential.
I will say this about Jerusalem it continually has an exodus of secular Jews from there. There a few reasons for this: jobs, not comfortable with so many Haredi around, limited activities on Shabbat. I am going to make another post which likely you will not fancy as the Brits say.
I recommend that we all should read an interview in the JP with Nir Barkat, the former mayor of Jerusalem, who now has a high slot on the Likud Knesset list, and is rumored to be slated for a cabinet appointment soon. Barkat explains why it would be a disaster to try to change the religious “status quo,” because it would stir up too much communal strife among Jews. He bases this conclucion on his expereiences as mayor of Jerusalem, with its large haredi minority, and a secular majority thaat is really pissed off at the haredim. He realizes that mutual tolerance is essential.https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/The-Likuds-new-acquisition-and-his-message-to-US-Jews-592454
If Barkat does get a cabinet post in Bibi’s government, the Likud will definitely reject Leiberman’s demand that his bill be passed with no changes from the first reading. That will require him to back off from this demand if he decides he wants to join a Likud government. My hunch is that he wants Blue and White to win and form the government. But even Blue and White is not likely to agree to his “not a comma changed” demand. No bill has ever passed into law in Israel without some amendments to the second or third reading, except the recent dissolution bill. In any case, the Gantz wing of Blue and White has made it plain that they prefer not to provoke the haredim. As a result, Leiberman will have to soften his stance if he wants to be part of the next government, no matter which side wins.
Of course, it is possible that he intends to retire from politics and is not interested in a future cabinet post–only in making a big stink as he exits the stage.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Adam, I also was vastly interested in the Watergate matter, in fact watched every single scrap of it, and made tapes.(only sound..alas), which I still have somewhere. I dispute a couple of your lead comments. What evidence is there that Nixon thought he was irreplaceable. (By wanting to make a successful Presidency after he’d been swindled out of it by Kennedy in 1960…??)
And it’s Likud associates and much of the population who think that Netanyahu is irreplaceable. (And if Netanyahu believes it too, why not..he has good reasons.)
Nixon inherited the morass of Vietnam, begun by JFK. even though De Gaulle warned him against it because of the French experience. JFK also secretly broke the 1954 Geneva Convention by conspiring with the Sth..Vietnam Govt to massively enlarge their army and fight against the Nth. He sent American troops to train and sustain them. Naturally much war equipment went also.
How many REAL crimes did Kennedy commit right there. Then Johnson with his fake Gulf of Tonkin event….
Nixon’s offence was really very minor, and compounded by the stupidity of his associates ..and THEIR hirelings whom Nixon didn’t know at all. And the ramped-up “excitement” and mystery of Deep Throat” .
Not to overlook the absolutely virulent hatred that the Democrats had for him-as they have for Trump today. There is a relevant comparison if you will. The hack reporters Bernstein and Bernstein, made it seem as if the “sky is falling”….
Today, REAL obstruction of Justice and actual crimes deserving multi year prison sentences are overlooked , because they are committed by the very same Democratic Party, which has always been its norm, ever since Tammany Hall days….
The Dems made an art out of crooked politics. The Repubs are only trotting far back..
I thought the Hamilton-Burr example was very apt, and really, considering the different conditions of the late 18th century, and the mad 20th cent. Vietnam days……,…
And there is a Hamilton personal quote..
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
I agree.
The Watergate hearings were just before I made aliyah. I had a month of free time while I was waiting for my paperwork. Everyday I did one of three things watched the Watergate hearings, read about Israel or play basketball.
@ Bear Klein: Yes, you are right, Bear. The Nixon case is relevant here. Both Bibi, like Nixon, thinks he is irreplaceable, and has an enormous ego. However, having followed the Watergate affair very closely, day by day, at the time, I was convinced that the allegations against Nixon was valid. There was John Dean’s 245-page statement to a congressional committee broadcast on television. There were the White House tapes, which were also broadcast on television, and two rival sets of transcripts that were published while the case was progressing. There was extensive testimony in open court. All tending to show that Nixon and his associates were guilty of obstruction of justice.
By contrast, the case against Netanyahu has not been made public, and all we know are leaks from the prosecutors and AGs office that have appeared in the press, usually with anonymous attribution. This is one reaon why I am not convinced of Netanyahu’s guilt.
Netanyahu is accused of trying to bribe publishers to give him better press coverage. Nixon, by way of contrast, was accused of trying to destroy the Washington Post in revenge for their giving him negative coverage.
THe u>S. Congress played a major, even dominant, role, in the prosecution of Nixon. This is why so much of the evidence against him was made public before he resigned. The Knesset has played no role in the prosecution of Netanyahu.
I will regard Netanyahu as ‘innocent until proven guilty” until the evidence against him is made public, and he has presented his rebuttal case.
@ Edgar G.:As I have told you before your writing is not always clear to me.
@ Edgar G.:
My original comment seems to need clarification., I KNOW you were not talking about Gantz and Co. but neither was I. My sentence clearly picks out the present day “lefty” generals (seemingly more hawkish now),,,,(and enhancing this, by pointing out that they are “worthy successors” to Gantz, Ashknazi and etc. who always got us into a variety of dubious situations).
Perhaps I didn’t make ithat as clear as I had thought..
@ Bear Klein:
My reading of your last “emphasised” sentence ( a little snide) was, that your comment on Adam being “focused” on Hamilton-Burr, was more a neat way of criticism than compliment.. (you should be in the Diplomatic Corps, Bear)
I actually has a post written and ready to go which said that….then decided to completely erase it-…as up to then. it was part of a duologue between only you and Adam.
History is already deciding that Nixon was one of the better Presidents. And this will grow. I recall those impossible times; that the country was in constant upheaval, so much that Johnson did not run for a second term, and left the mess to Nixon. Nixon had been undeniably swindled out of his rightful Presidency in 1962 by the Kennedy gangsters. All this, and the Beatles era combined to distort his efforts. No white House occupant on earth could have controlled or satisfied the anarchistic, lewd, , unpatriotic, people of those times……and they had zoomed in on the seat of authority, who ever that would be….to destroy it.
Paranoia and deep seated neuroses were the norm for that period.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear, my very first 4 1/2 line “paragraph”, should, if properly read and absorbed, have made your comment unneccessary.
@ Edgar G.:Edgar the generals I was talking about was NOT the Blue/White leaders but the current IDF Generals in charge want to open on Hamas without warnings and stop wasting $500K missiles on empty terrorist installations and buildings.
I am not a fan of the Blue/White. Gantz seems like hot air. His suggestion was blast them and then go to the UN for leverage in negotiating or something equally stupid.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:I would have referenced American History in the 20th Century as more relevant.
Richard Nixon and his Watergate Scandal and Benjamin Netenyahu (with his 3 charges). Nixon thought he was irreplaceable. Bibi has tried to make himself irreplaceable. Nixon would have been impeached if he had not resigned. Bibi is likely to be indicted and either resign or be forced out of office. Even though he claims it is not so at this point.
Now your favorite Liberman is openly saying a unity government is needed between the Blue/White, Likud and Yisrael Betenyu. What he did not say is that this would be without Netenyahu as PM (which is implied because the Blue/White would not do this with Bibi as PM). At least that is what they have said until know and their whole campaign is just anti-Bibi campaign.
@ Bear Klein:
The Generals are only NOW saying this because they see a perceived weakness in the PM with the public. Before it was they, riddled with “leftism”, worthy successors to Gantz Ya’alon, and Ashkenazi,, who, without any trouble got us into an unholy mess each time. . Why suddenly should they now be regarded as menschen to be listened to……Only because the feel they can pile on to the PM.
Who invented the knock-knock gimmick…NOT Netanyahu. He has reasons for not wanting to wipe out Gaza, of which we know nothing…. but he feels it’s best for Israel at this time… Even though I often advocate flattening it to the ground. He knows more.
Neither you, nor I, nor Adam, nor anyone in Israel except maybe Sara, knows what’s in Netanyahu’s mind, but assuredly, it is for the benefit of Israel. You slide over the miraculous political prowess he has gained for Israel, with almost nonchalance…
Before his arrival Israel was s very best a 2nd class verging on 3rd class state.. NOW…in only a handful of years, after his most strenuous and brilliant efforts, it is a high ranking Major Power, which nobody could ever have imagined Israel to become…
Those trying to tear him down are lesser people. The A-Gs publication of an indictment just before the election was a definite political hit, to try to defeat Likud. You all seem to have forgotten this, and that the charges against him are all politically motivated by his enemies, who hate him.
I bear no brief for or against Netanyhu, I don’t know him ..only know hes very good for Israel -the best ever-, and no one can emulate or exceed his brilliant statesmanship. AND we are at a most perilous time amongst all the similar times that Israel constantly experiences…but this one is worse and he IS NEEDED to be uncluttered by these picayune gnat bites,.
Personally speaking, by any standards, he should have has about 10 nervous breakdowns over his terms in office. …(Like Rabin before the Yom Kipur War…??).
@ Bear Klein:
Thanks, Bear, for complementing me about my “education” such as it is, about the Hamilton-Jefferson-Aaaron Burr feud. The relevance that I saw to Leiberman is that I think that Leiberman, like Burr, lacks personal integrity and a sense of responsibility. That, and not his haredi draft bill, which for all I know may be a good proposal, is the only reaon I object to his being given a cabinet post.
By the way, the leader of UTJ’s faction in the Knesset ( I can’t remember his name has accused Leiberman of having deceived him about his and Israel Beiteinu’s intentions concerning his haredi dract bill. He claims that in their discussions until shortly before he triggored the dissolution of the Knesset only six weeks after the election, that Leiberman led him to believe almost to the last minute that his “not one word” demand was not serious, and that he fully expected to join Netanyahu’s government. He also claimed that UTJ and Israeli Betenu had worked together well in previous governments, and that he had considered Leiberman to be “practically a member of UTJ.” If this MK is telling the truth that Leiberman misled UTJ about his intentions, IT confirms my impression that Leiberman is a man of questionable personal integrity and is not to be trusted again with high government office. Israel cannot afford to have in high office a man whose behavior is unpredictable and who seems to enjoy being a troublemaker.
Thanks, Bear, for complementing me about my “education” such as it is, about the Hamilton-Jefferson-Aaaron Burr feud. The relevance that I saw to Leiberman is that I think that Leiberman, like Burr, lacks personal integrity and a sense of responsibility. That, and not his haredi draft bill, which for all I know may be a good proposal, is the only reaon I object to his being given a cabinet post.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Gantz is head of Blue & White.
UTJ is United Torah Judaism the acronym for one of the Haredi parties in the Knesset.
It appears you maybe confused.
@ Bear Klein: I am aware of these maneuvres by UTJ. They misht just work under certain circumstances. The Gantz wing of UTJ won’t part company with the Lapid wing. But they might put pressure on the Lapid wing to back off from a confrontation with the haredim.
I don’t think even Lapid is much interested in a confrontation with the haredim. Most non-haredi Israelis, whether secular, traditional or national-religious consider the haredi rabbinate to be a nuisance rather than a mortal threat. On the other hand, the Arab agressors are seen as a mortal threat. Few Israelis want a confrontation with the haredim until and unless the security situation measureably improves. Until that happens, few Israelis will want to risk having the police being diverted by haredi riots from their main job, which is to apprehend the terrorists before they can strike. In general, they do a remarkably good job at this. But if they have to divert resources to dealing with haredi riots and civil disobedience. Like all Israeli government departments, the police are under budget, have a manpower shortage and are stretched very thin.
Most Israeli Jews don’t want the Jews fighting each other when the enemy is at the gates. Most have probably heard or read somewhere the story of how the Jews fighting battles with each other doomed the Great Revolt of 66-70 C.E., and led to destruction of the temple, the killing of 1 million Jews and the enslavement and exile of millions more.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
By the way the UTJ is currently trying to get the Blue White split in half. They want Gantz to split from Lapid because of the draft legislation. So you may not think it is an issue but they do.
Then you are focused on Alexander Hamilton and Burr (that was an amazing digression I was impressed).
Adam, by the way the Supreme Court has ordered the government to create new draft legislation, as the last one was ruled inequitable so it may not fit your personal rant against Liberman but the next government in Israel is required to pass such legislation.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Two corrections I do NOT hate the Haredim. Perhaps the Rabbinut but certainly not the Haredim. Also I do not hate Bibi. Just his time should be running out he is no longer protecting the citizens of Israel and a new leader needs to found. He has done good things for Israel in the economic area plus in making overseas’s connections.
He is currently stopping the IDF generals from truly blasting Hamas. They want to stop giving the terrorists warnings before they blast the buildings they are in. So Bibi is risking the lives of all those who live in the South and saving the lives of terrorists plus allowing them to get millions of dollars from Quatar. Great leadership if you are working for Hamas.
I am not convinced that the charges against Bibi are actually valid but on the other hand he is no longer effective in protecting Israel and forming a government.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:Adam one of Lapid’s constant theme’s is the fair sharing of the burden. He is the number in the Blue & White and would be alternate Prime Minister. So if you believe they would not pass a stricter law on Haredi draft you are to be polite simply not even slightly knowledgeable on the subject. This is not meant as an offense but if you listened Lapid talk in Hebrew just every once in a while he rails against the Haredim and the draft in particular. He when in the government passed legislation about the draft. Which was subsequently weakened in a new bill which the courts throw out.
Many of my friend who normally say nothing against Bibi have verbalized strong feelings or disgust by the lies of the immunity bill. Even public figures.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/second-likud-mk-comes-out-against-wrong-and-unnecessary-netanyahu-immunity-bid/
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Adam you may not think Bibi lied about not enacting legislation to make himself immune from prosecution but many Israelis including Likudniks and others from the right camp do clearly believe it and are disgusted by it.
You maybe okay that building stops or slows in Judea/Samaria and rationalize it on the past when Bibi gave in to Obama but the right in Israel are not okay with it.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
Adam…you are correct…I distinctly recollect that Netanyahu actually said, before the election, that the law would, NOT apply to this new Knesset . Also, I’ve posted several times, -which raised no counter -posts, that in the week or so coming into the election, 2-3 very prominent, very highly placed Likud people representing the PM, specifically stated that the Law would NOT apply to Netanyahu. They made positive declarations to that effect. This was in Arutz 7.
I can’t remember an actual statement which indicated that the PM had changed his mind. Please recall it to me. Thank you.
@ Bear Klein: As I explained earlier, Bear, Bibi did not lie. He said before the Knesset was dissolved in Dec. 2018 that he didn’t think such a law was “necessary” since he didn’t think he would be indicted. He never said that he was absolutely or unconditionally opposed to such a law.After the Attorney General announced his intention to indict Bibi in February 2019, he changed his mind. No lie there. We all change our views when circumstances change and our previous assumptions are proved wrong.
You allow your hatred of both the haredim and Bibi to cloud your thinking.
@ Bear Klein:
Yes Bear I know that. I have seen evidence before. But this is the first time that I’ve seen a whole 4 seat party absorbed by osmosis, without even a belch-at least in my recollection. ..
I believe that Kahlon has a certain, small but loyal group of followers and his party could have returned to the Knesset.
We won’t know anything until after the election..
Bear, the policies of a government that includes Blue and White would be terrible on at least some issues. But we should remember that a series of governments led by Bibi has takn no action on these issues, either. THe Netanyahu government has restricted Jewish settlement in Judea-Samaria, and even in “East” Jerusalem for years, while tolerating massive Arab settlement in the same area. He did nothing to restrict the usurpation of power by the Supreme Court, and only began to ally himself with critics of the court when it became unmistakable that they were determined to oust and jail him personally on very dubious charges.
It was Leiberman whose behavior eliminated the possibility of court reform by the Knesset elected in April, whose dissolution he forced.
I doubt if a government led by a coalition of “Blue and White” and Likud would take any action to force conscription by the haredim. A spoken for the Gantz wing of Blue and White has made it clear that the Gantz people want no action against the haredim. He publicly reproved Lapid for make anti-haredi “propaganda” a few days ago. And he pointed out that Blue and White might need the haredim to form a coalition government.
There is no real enthusiasm for changing the “status quo” concerning the haredi community among non-haredi Israelis. Most consider the power of the rabbinate to be a nuisance rather than a mortal threat to the nation. And they don’t want to stir up too much hostility to the government by Jews when Israel faces a mortal threat from the Palestinians , Hizbollah and Iran.
As for Leiberman, he deliberately sabotaged the politica l process by his unexpected desertion of the national camp. Blue and White did not do this.
I am reminded of Alexander Hamiliton’s decision to throw his influence to elect Thomas Jefferson in the election of 1800 , even though they had been political adversaries for many years, when the choice came down to Jefferson vs. Burr. His explanation:”I despise Jefferson’s principles, but at least I know he has them. Burr has no principles at all.” Lieberman has evolved into an unprincipled man who is attempting to sabotage the political process, just as Burr did in 1800.
Bear, the policies of a government that includes Blue and White would be terrible on at least some issues. But we should remember that a series of governments led by Bibi has takn no action on these issues, either. THe Netanyahu government has restricted Jewish settlement in Judea-Samaria, and even in “East” Jerusalem for years, while tolerating massive Arab settlement in the same area. He did nothing to restrict the usurpation of power by the Supreme Court, and only began to ally himself with critics of the court when it became unmistakable that they were determined to oust and jail him personally on very dubious charges.
It was Leiberman whose behavior eliminated the possibility of court reform by the Knesset elected in April, whose dissolution he forced.
I doubt if a government led by a coalition of “Blue and White” and Likud would take any action to force conscription by the haredim. A spoken for the Gantz wing of Blue and White has made it clear that the Gantz people want no action against the haredim. He publicly reproved Lapid for make anti-haredi “propaganda” a few days ago. And he pointed out that Blue and White might need the haredim to form a coalition government.
There is no real enthusiasm for changing the “status quo” concerning the haredi community among non-haredi Israelis. Most consider the power of the rabbinate to be a nuisance rather than a mortal threat to the nation. And they don’t want to stir up too much hostility to the government by Jews when Israel faces a mortal threat from the Palestinians , Hizbollah and Iran.
As for Leiberman, he deliberately sabotaged the politica l process by his unexpected desertion of the national camp. Blue and White did not do this.
I am reminded of Alexander Hamiliton’s decision to throw his influence to elect Thomas Jefferson in the election of 1800 , even though they had been political adversaries for many years, when the choice came down to Jefferson vs. Burr. His explanation:”I despise Jefferson’s principles, but at least I know he has them. Burr has no principles at all.” Lieberman has evolved into an unprincipled man who is attempting to sabotage the political process, just as Burr did in 1800.
@ Adam Dalgliesh:
A coalition with Blue & White means NO court or judicial reform. It likely means NO applying Israeli civil law to any place in Judea/Samaria. Judea/Samaria would be put on the back burner for building funds.
It does mean a tougher draft law for Haredim. The Haredi would loose their influence in most matters.
Are you still in favor?
I would rather go with a Likud Blue and White Coalition that Leaves of Leiberman. Leiberman’s behavior has been so destructive in forcing a second election that nobody wants or needs, and makes it nearly impossible to fund excessive government operations for months. His monkey-wrench-throwing means that he is an irresponsible individual who should be excluded from all future governments.
@ Edgar G.:
Combing 2 parties does not necessarily lead to more seats. It may or may not. Maybe it prevents a loss of seats.
If Kahlon had run again as a separate party (Kulanu) he might not even have gotten into the Knesset. The other thing there are Likudniks who are mad a Bibi for not being able to form a coalition and also that he lied about not trying to get special legislation to keep him from being indicted.
Something isn’t working here. LIKUD got the same 35 seats AFTER the amalgamation with Kahlon’s 4 seats. So either Kahlon lost all his voters, or LIKUD actually lost up to 4 seats.
Ted, also another poll came out with similar results.
The Likud is trying to siphon Lieberman’s vote in lieu of the strategy you presented which would be to get the Haredi to agree to this already soft draft law. The Likud is using Russian experts to fight Liberman.
My educated guess is that they will have a hard time winning this discourse. If they want a government they will need to get the Haredi to agree to Liberman’s draft law.
Otherwise you may fight a revolt in the Likud and someone takes Bibi’s place and agrees to a unity coalition with the Blue and White as a National Unity government. Liberman might join the government then and maybe the New Right (big iff).
Only the viable threat of a unity government which leaves out the Haredi parties would get them to bend to Liberman’s demand of his draft law. If Lapid rewrites his old draft law it is tougher than Liberman’s and the Haredi would really be behind the eight ball politically speaking.