Russia is back in the game


Middle Eastern Media Research Institute

In a December 20, 2006 op-ed in the Syrian government daily Teshreen, columnist Issam Dari wrote that the uni-polar world order that the U.S. has sought to impose upon the world is a thing of the past, and that today Russia is playing a role no less important than that of the U.S. in promoting world peace and security.

In a December 21, 2006 article, the Iranian government daily Tehran Times discussed Russia’s attempts to restore its international status through increasing involvement in the Middle East. The paper speculated that Russia’s close friendship with Syria could help the latter emerge from the isolation imposed upon it, both by the West and by some hostile Arab countries which are trying to implicate it in Al-Hariri’s assassination.

The following are excerpts from both articles: CONTINUE

January 16, 2007 | 17 Comments »

Subscribe to Israpundit Daily Digest

17 Comments / 17 Comments

  1. This element of values that makes US Citizens more pro-Israel than others is lacking in Europe and Russia and even in China.

    That Randy is what you write above. We have went over thios before and it is vitally important.

    Note very carefully. You do say US citizens. I insist on this separate distinction between the ordinary US people and their Government.

    This then in that sense is absolutely correct and is the foundation of our work on Israpundit.

    The role of evangelical Christians is in my opinion the working through of these qualities in the American population which have their origin in the ideas of freedom and fairness which have come from the American Revolution and glorious Tom Payne.

    Let us take Russia first. Russia is not the main enemy. It is an enemy but not the main enemy. I reserve that accolade for the American Government. That is where we disagree.

    The role of Russia during the 60s and 70s has been remarked upon by no less than Paul Johnson, a very good writer indeed. The level of absolute anti=semitic filth which came out of there was as bad as anything that the Nazis put out.

    This was the role of Stalinism. The degeneration of the hopes which were placed in socialism and in the October Revolution by many, many workers and poor in the world in 1917. That is fact. It is not fantasy.

    Putin is out of that school and it is a horrible school indeed.

    Leon Trotsky was murdered by a Stalinist thug called Ramon Mercader who gained access to his home by pretending to be the boyfriend of a secretary of Trotsky. That was how the Stalinists settled arguments especially in the Spanish Civil War. Mercader was Spanish. On his release from a Mexican prison in the early 60s he was awarded the highest medal the Soviets could bestow.

    As with everything in life there is a history. I do not distort history. But you Randy, you do distort history, and you do so by your cynical, flippant and non=historical remark in the above:

    “Trotsky’s life and in particularly his death should serve as an allegory of leftist. Trotsky’s end was the result of his cause, he helped create the monster that morphed split and devoured him.

    That is false and is a slander and I challenge you on it, although I fear to tread on Ted-s indulgence because Israpundit may in his opinion not mine though not be the place to explore this.

    Back to the question.

    I argue and you do not answer. The main problem which the Jewish cause has got in relation to Iran is not Russia or anybody else, but the US Government.

    Let me explain once more, and I repeat myself, because you ignored my central point.

    It seems many years ago now that the deceased Robin Cook of Britain as is the way with degenerate European social democracy decided to placate the fascists of the Iranian Mullahs by “negotiation”.

    That was the point. That was the killer moment. At that precise point it was necessary for the US Government if they really profess to be for Israel to split with the European social democrats of Blair, to state that the US would at the earliest opportunity pulverize by force the Iranian Nuclear Bomb making facilities.

    The scene was set thus: A nation has been threatened with annihilation. This nation is our special friend. This nation of Jewish people has already suffered a holocaust. Never again.

    That could have been said by the Busg Government. That cpould very easily indeed have been said following 9.11. Did the US Government do that… No it did not. Most definitely it did not do that.

    I will not go into the imposition of the Fascist Palestinian state onto the Israelis.

    Who by Randy. By the Russians. No Randy, bit players, it was imposed on Israel by their “Big friend” …by none other than Bush.

    I will not go into those press statements which came out at the beginning of the Lebanon War threatening Israel not to disrupt lebanese democracy.

    I will not go into their befriending of the allies of Iran in Iraq and their and British support for the Al Sadr Fashist Mahdi Army.

    That is the central question that Jewish people need to confront. Why is it so. because the American Government is portrayed as being the friend of the Jewish state.

    If at that time the American Government had answered Cook and Blair thus the game would have been over. There would now be no talk of the odious Russians selling their filthy arms to the Mullahs.

    The Russians have crept into this space created by the US Government.

    I have not misrepresented you.I have drawn accurately out of your writings here on Israpundit that you see Russia, and China for goodness sake, as being the main enemy of Israel, and that you do not see the US Governing class as being the main by a long mile danger to Israel.

    Not just me, others seriously have to answer you on your other point…that it was the “left” which waged war on Yugoslavia.

    This is such an important point I cannot do so alone nor will I try. Just to say:

    1. How anyone can portray Clinton as left or socialist escapes me totally

    2. Milosevic was murdered by the NATO court, just months ago, and you Randy joined with others here on this site in lauding NATO to the very heavens.

    I certainly consider those who lauded NATO thus certainly implicit in the murder of Milosevic.

  2. Felix,

    Seeing how you misrepresent me and the things I write in an attempt to build a straw man to tear down, I suspect you must do the same with history.

    Trotsky’s life and in particularly his death should serve as an allegory of leftist. Trotsky’s end was the result of his cause, he helped create the monster that morphed split and devoured him.

    Felix wrote:

    Randy has got an agenda which comes from his starting point, support for the US……

    This is one of the misrepresentations I refer to. I am a critic of US government policies of both parties and I believe US power is in decline because leftist thinking prevails across party lines.

    The times I have advocated Israeli resistance to US policies can’t be counted and I have often commented in length that Israel must stand independent of all nations in its own interest regardless of pressures.

    My support is not for the US but is tied to an element of values that still exists in a minority of Americans. In as much as that element exists in the US I support the US. The US government and US policy hardly reflect this element for If they did Iran and Syria would not be a problem and Jerusalem would be recognized as Israel’s capital, there would be no West Bank for that area would simply be Israel.

    This element of values that makes US Citizens more pro-Israel than others is lacking in Europe and Russia and even in China. Therefore they will be even more anti-Israel than the US is when it is to their benefit.

    Felix loves to evoke Yugoslavia and what the US and EU in the form of NATO. Who did that but US liberals such as Clinton and Clark and UK liberals such as Blair and Cook? The whole debacle is a gift from the left. Most conservatives opposed the action.

    So again it was the left. But such it is with the left, they supported the war on the Serbs and are against a war that took out a real mass murderer.

    As for my statements about Russia, it was only yesterday that the news was filled with stories. Russia maintains that there are no sanctions on Iran and that the UN resolution does not apply to contracts made by Iran . Therefore Russia has continued supplying armaments to Iran and is building an air-defense system to protect Iran should the US or Israel attempt to take out Iranian nuclear facilities.

    Iran is transferring some of the armaments to Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Arab nations are empowered by Russia and to some extent China, without them they would be very little threat. That is a fact.

  3. Really, what you are both describing is that capitalism has created a world market, and there is no nation which can opt out of this. The Stalinist policy of “socialism in one coutry” proved not so much a policy as a dogma. It had to go and it went in the direction of restoration of capitalist productive relations. But paradoxically in doing so the US and the EU has created a much more efficient and deadly competitor on the world scene. This is naked capitalist greed at work in Russia and China too actually.

    Bill has actually answered Randy for me. When he writes accurately:

    I would note that while Russia is not the key player in the Middle East, there is no denying that it is one of the key players and its involvement does not auger well for America or for Israel.

    Not the key player, nor is China.

    This is exactly my argument here with Randy. This is the problem with the polemics of Randy, he is doiong something which is not true or accurate. He is promoting Russia and China to be the main dangers to Israel.

    Anything which is not true and accurate becomes a major danger to Israel which can only win on the basis of truth.

    Randy has got an agenda which comes from his starting point, support for the US, and that is exactly the opposite of the kind of independence psychology which Israel needs.

    The problem did not start with Russia or China. The problem started within the latest stages of this historical development of America and Iran, with the decision of Robin Cook to proceed in negotiations with Iran over the Nuclear Bomb, and the US backed Cook in this.

    That was and is the problem. To talk of Russia is a diversion.

    What was and is necessary is for the US population to force their government to say to Iran…End it now or we will smash you. We will join with our friend Israel and we will pulverize your Nuclear Bomb inty actual smidereens.

    Having taken that position the US Government then would have taken down any planes from any country supplying Iran with weapons. That includes Russia.

    This is what I call principles.

    However that aspect of things is what Randy steers clear of. He takes the heat off the main culprit in this situation and that is the US Government.

    By the way to understand Russia totally I suspect you need to understand Yugoslavia and what the US and EU in the form of NATO did there, and also that Islamism has been stirred by the US and EU to attack not only the Stalinist bureaucracy but more lately Putin. This American regime cum elite is a very, very corrupt affair.

    Bill what I mean by Imperialism. Any country who interferes in the affairs of another country or countries for its own ends is essentially being Imperialist. I do not mean war in defence against an enemy out to destroy you. The US and EU id this with Yugoslavia and caused great hurt and suffering to the Serb people, especially psychological suffering, which is the worst kind.

    Yugoslavia remains the touchstone. The key to all truths in this period.

    China and Ireland Bill. In one way it will impact Ireland greatly, and that is on global warming. They are a Government, stalinist in origin and spirit, which is corrupt and basically amoral. That is just for starters.

    To conclude Israel needs to be independent especially of the US Government and like pregnancy you cannot be just a little bit independent. It is not as we know. Olmert and Livni are great dangers and will remain so.

    Randy in his attacks obscures the problem of the US and Israel.

  4. Bill,
    I totally second your statement about the danger of China in the economic sphere. China can hold our economy hostage because we have become a consumer society and moved our manufacturing out of the country. We have become economic hostages to China’s manufacturing and other oil producing nations. Someday we will pay for this big time. China uses us now to increase their wealth and acquire our know-how but they are reaching a level that they can make it without us. They may find it beneficial at some point for either political or economic reasons, or both, to put the squeeze on us.

    In other developments China continues to build its military and capabilities. The NYT reported:

    China Tests Anti-Satellite Weapon, Unnerving U.S.

    “China successfully carried out its first test of an anti-satellite weapon last week, signaling its resolve to play a major role in military space activities and bringing expressions of concern from Washington and other capitals, the Bush administration said Thursday……”

    Russia seems the more aggressive of the two nations at this point but China is in the position to pose a great threat if they should choose to at some point in time. How this relates to the situation in the Middle-East is another story. Russia seems more engaged in the ME than China and although China has interest there also it seems that Russia is the one that is actively taking sides against Israel, but in a subtle manner.

  5. Felix, before I take you up on your comment about reading about the U.S. involvement in the breakup of Yugoslavia, please define precisely what you mean by U.S. imperialism.

    I have explained what I understand by the word imperialism as applied to historical national policies, but I still think you are defining the phrase U.S. imperialism or imperialist interests quite differently than I am. I just want to ensure we are on the same page when we are discussing the pertinent issues.

    As for your saying I was attacking the U.S. elite, it was not so much an attack, but an expression of sadness and frustration that America just does not seem to realize or perhaps it is in denial that the cold war with Russia is back on, albeit in different form. I cannot fathom why America is not recognizing realities in that regard, but America is exposing itself to a lot of pain if she does not wake up to those realities and accordingly start responding very soon.

    I would note that while Russia is not the key player in the Middle East, there is no denying that it is one of the key players and its involvement does not auger well for America or for Israel.

    As for China, apart from it coming to the aid of Iran at the U.N. by helping Russia throw sand in the U.N. gears, it is posing an increasing danger to numerous Western nations including perhaps Ireland. That danger is in the economic sphere. China is definitely changing economies in the U.S., Canada and elsewhere and not for the better. More on that should China and its impact on the world become the focus of another posting.

  6. Felix,

    I have already covered the issues you bring up and have stated that there are “big problems” with US policy in the ME. You ignore all of that in your attacks on me.

    I will not however, back off from my accusations against Russia. It was Russian made anti-tank rocket launchers that punched holes right through the Israeli Merkava tanks in Lebanon. These were modern high-tech weapons that you don’t pick up of the street like a 38. Special. The amount of cooperation going on now between Russia and Arabs is more than just business, it is strategic as noted in the topic article.

    And what is Russia doing about Iran’s nuclear ambitions Felix? You got some “splain‘n” to do on that.

    And Felix,

    Why do you try to distance Chavez from the left and associate him with fascist when you write:
    “Chavez is labeled as Left wing but in my opinion is in the Peronist tradition, basically a nationalist, out of the army, moving into dictatorship, with Fascist overtones, more akin to the Arab Nasser.”

    The problem with this is Chavez’s admiration of, and close friendship with Castro who is continually defended by the left, and after whose government Chavez has modeled his own. Chavez is also close with Russia and just yesterday Venezuela’s National Assembly gave initial approval to a measure allowing Chavez to enact laws by decree in order to accelerate Venezuela’s march toward socialism. That makes Chavez a dictator. Furthermore, if Chavez is a fascist, then my drawing connections between fascist and communist/leftist/socialist is a valid one.

    As for the people of Venezuela, the ADL released a report on their website stating that anti-Semitism is on the rise:

    New York, NY, November 6, 2006 … Under the leadership of firebrand President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela has experienced a disturbing rise in anti-Semitism, fostered in large part by Chavez’s own rhetoric and that of his government institutions. A new report from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) details the troubling mix of anti-Semitism and support for radical Islam that — along with anti-imperialism and anti-Americanism — have become the calling cards of the Chavez regime……”

    As I stated before, a governments reflect the overall state of society in one way or another, but Felix always tries to separate the two.

  7. Randy and Bill
    When is somebody going to do a proper analysis of what has went on in Latin America over the past 50 years and what is happening now. Randy you hand the victory to Chavez too easily and you paint the people there as Jew haters too easily. Do not throw the struggle away. Chavez is an Israeli hater but the people…that is not proved and is a question of leadership, of the kinds of leaders like Chavez, and of the Church. Chavez is labelled as Left wing but in my opinion is in the Peronist tradition, basically a nationalist, out of the army, moving into dictatorship, with Fascist overtones, more akin to the Arab Nasser.

    I was aware Bill that you honourably were atacking the US elite, but you were doing so from the interests of US Imperial interests. Please read further on how the US led the pack in the breaking up of Yugoslavia and answer the question then truthfully if this is an Imperialist nation or not.

    Yugoslavia is the touchstone in all of this. There all the actors were on show and it is still ongoing.

    And if you want to know why Russia sells arms to Iran, well it is greed of course, and opportunism, but it is also because of what happened in Yugoslavia, and to the Serbs, fellow Slavs.

    Randy wrote this:

    There are BIG problems with US policy but not the same problems as Israel faces from Russian policies. Russia is the main threat, China to a lesser extent. It is Russia and China at the UN who obstruct action against Iran. If Russia was determined to stop Iranian nukes the it would be a done deal already. If Russia had threatened military action against Iran (ha…ha…ha..) the US would have supported a measure. Russia is helping Iran with their nuclear program, and you think the USA is the world threat. Russia and China both are arming radical Islamic nations, such as Syria and Iran, to the hilt.

    You are either very naive or else you are pushing a very dangerous line here for the US Governmental elite and against the interests of Israel.

    The key question is certainly not Russia or any other state in the world. The key question is the US Government. If the US Government was to declare to the world…We will along with our friends Israel eliminate in short order this evil Mullah plan to build a Nuclear Bomb to destroy our friend Israel…then it would be game over.

    Would it not Randy Texas!

    But in your posts you are seeking to deflect the responsibility onto Russia. How pathetic!

    Why do you not in your posts question why the US Government has not taken this line? That is the key question which readers of your posts should be asking,

    Unfortunately they are silent!

    It is left to a left wing Irishman with sympathy for the Jewish people to ask that question.

  8. Pauli,

    I really don’t disagree with you about anything in your comment except on China and even there I agree with most of what you say with stipulations. For one, I don’t see becoming more Democratic in the future; international corporate capitalism isn’t the same thing as freedom.

    The Chinese like you say are patient and careful, if they become adversarial it could likely be following behind the aggression of Russia. I would say that Russia is the aggressor and to the extent Russia is successful China could follow suit if it appears the nation could benefit.

    Now, as far as the USA turning on Israel, I agree that it is possible, but Israel will always have many friends in the USA. They may lose power, they may become a minority, but they will always remain true friends.


    Either you don’t understand or you misrepresent my stance.

    Example, Felix said,

    One thing that is continually puzzling me in these contributions from especially M Simon and Randy is the identification of US world interests with those of Israel……

    The US and Israel share common interest as evidenced by the rhetoric (Big Satan & Little Satan) of their enemies. Check out Islamic militant rallies and see whose flags they are burning; and they often burn the US and Israeli flag together with no other.

    We must have something in common, No? Why do US citizens by far and away support Israel above the support for Israel found in other nations? Why does the US often stand alone at the UN in defense of Israel?

    I do not deny there are subversives at work in the US but you should not deny the general US support for Israel is in part due to things we hold in common.

    Felix also wrote:

    “Yet out of all of this we have a definite political line on Israpundit carried especially by Randy Texas unopposed by Ted which is painting Russia and China the main enemy and US Imperialist interests as benign towards Israel.”

    There are BIG problems with US policy but not the same problems as Israel faces from Russian policies. Russia is the main threat, China to a lesser extent. It is Russia and China at the UN who obstruct action against Iran. If Russia was determined to stop Iranian nukes the it would be a done deal already. If Russia had threatened military action against Iran (ha…ha…ha..) the US would have supported a measure. Russia is helping Iran with their nuclear program, and you think the USA is the world threat. Russia and China both are arming radical Islamic nations, such as Syria and Iran, to the hilt.

    Then you always try to separate the US Government from the people in America but overall (for better or for worse) the government mirrors the people. There are extremes among the people consisting of those who hate Israel and those who love Israel but we vote every 2-4 years and corrections are made to bring the government more in line to public perceptions.

    You can say all the voters in the US are deceived by the elitists, and many of them are, but regardless, in one way or another a government reflects its people or it falls. You can’t have someone like Chavez or Mahmoud Ahmadinead blasting Israel unless that sentiment is strong in the country, and they are tyrants – How much more in a place like America where the people have more power?

  9. Felix,

    I must take issue with a few of your comments.

    From my vantage point Felix, I do not see the U.S. being an imperialist nation in the traditional or historical sense. Please therefore define what you mean by the phrase, “U.S. imperialist interests”.

    Secondly, my comments were limited to raising for consideration my observation that America seemed to lack awareness of a new cold war being aggressively pursued by Russia on the political and economic battlefields of the Middle East and at the U.N.. This cold war appears to have as its objective the enhancement of Russian influence and fortunes in the Middle East at the expense of America.

    I am contending that the Bush administration and Americans generally should be fully wakened to this new realpolitik which has been going on now for at least a decade. I am also contending that America must start treating Russia, if not as an enemy, then at least as an adversary whose actions, if not challenged will harm America.

    There appears to be much confusion and disarray in the minds of the Bush administration and the same impairment of clear thinking seems to also aflict American society gnerally. Such fuzzy thinking breeds disunity when it is unity that is so needed.

    America is still stronger than the Russians. Unless Amercians assert their will to be the best and not just talk about it in actions to counter the Russian actions harming America and which actions make Russians feel the pain of being poked hard with a very sharp stick, Russia wil continue along the path it has set for itself and American fortunes in the Middle East will continue to be hurt.

    Russian actions in this cold war do have at least an indirect impact on Israel, but I was not expanding my comments to include what that indirect impact is. I expect most followers of Israpundit can figure most of that out for themselves.

    As for your point that Israel must achieve independence in the sense of becoming more the captain of her own ship, I quite agree and have written quite extensively on that issue. That issue however was not the focus of my comments regarding America and Russia.

  10. One thing that is continually puzzling me in these contributions from especially M Simon and Randy is the identification of US world interests with those of Israel, which is a serious matter because this is not a US blog, but a Jewish and Israeli advocacy forum.

    On another thread I wrote this:


    The question is Iran.Is it correct to say Iran is some kind of religious fascist state,in nature imperialism with all their pretensions to world power etc which they proclaim loudly.

    In the Times section Bolton says that he Bolton would prefer the Iran bomb stopped, but he does not say Bush will do it. Please read him very carefully on that.

    it is this ambiguity with these people that is the great danger.

    Israel cannot live with a nuclear bomb but the big question for me anyhow can the US ruling class and its government live with it.

    See their support for Izetbegovic.

    I know exactly the proud and honourable position of the ordinary American people, they are with Israel totally on this.

    That is what I keep hammering away on…the difference between the American people and the American Government. They do sometimes naturally coincide through Congress but there is this difference which goes back to the Enlightenment and the very founding of America.

    Let us not get hung up on phrases. But we can only go by the historical record.

    For me, because it is still going on, and my time is limited, the historical record is always Yugoslavia.

    The evidence suggests to me, not proves, that Milosevic was murdered. That is only last year.

    Soon Kosovo could well be broken from Serbia. Imagine Maryland broken from the United States.

    Comment by Felix Quigley — January 17, 2007 @ 7:18 am

    So concretely in the world today we have a Russia which supplies Iran. We also however have a US which has sections of its establishment reaching a modus vivendi with Iran. We have in the above article Bolton actually in his post in the UN toeing the line from his masters in the Bush establishment. We have Bush himself definitely refusing to say he will eliminate the Iranian bomb. We have the question of whether Israel can go it alone. And we have Bolton being lauded to the skies on this site.

    We have Bush and Rice pushing this Palestinian state which is part of the same Islamist strategy as the Nuclear Bomb.

    Yet out of all of this we have a definite political line on Israpundit carried especially by Randy Texas unopposed by Ted which is painting Russia and China the main enemy and US Imperialist interests as benign towards Israel.

    It is not only Randy and M Simon who speak only on behalf of US interests, but you too Bill do so in the above.

    You all seek to tie Israel behind the coat-tails of US Imperial interests, and you definitely are all taking away from Israel its most vital requirement today…its independence.

    That is why none of you can ever address the experience of the US and EU in Yugoslavia in the 90s still going on to this day.

    If you did so you would see at once, or have to admit, the great danger Israel is in from the US Government of George Bush.

  11. Randy, all the same I think we need to be very careful about choosing our battles here, and we court self-destruction if we obsess over dragons attacking when they may not be there (no pun intended here). I question whether China would actually move on Taiwan– it’s certainly possible if they get a belligerent fool in power, but China’s style is to move slowly and cautiously, going for diplomacy over military action. As for their economic system, yes I read that WSJ article and I’ve read other articles, by other respected conservative authorities, that suggest something very different. The best conclusion is that China’s economic system is still evolving, I for one am in a wait-and-see mode. And yes, China does often act in concert with Russia but frequently not– it’s a country with its own interests, and the sheer distance from the swamp of Western/Middle Eastern history and anti-Semitism there makes China more neutralist on our current problems.

    Your last comment is interesting, but I’d add a corollary to this: Israel and the Jewish people really have no permanent, reliable allies, and I’m including the USA in this. The USA has been Israel’s most friendly nation in recent decades, it’s true. But in 1948, when the rubber first hit the road, it wasn’t the US that first provided the weapons that Israel needed to survive the Arab onslaught– indeed, non-interventionists in the USA and outright anti-Semitism prevented that, while the British so hated Israel due to their own defeat there that they refused to do anything to help the Jewish people survive. Israel survived in part due to the Czech weapons pipeline pushed by the Russians who actively assisted us, while the US, though recognizing us, stood aside. Even up to 1967, the USA was standoffish. France ironically was much more active in assisting Israel throughout the 1950’s and 1960’s, on Israel’s nuclear program and on Israel’s defense in general. It was the US that turned harshly against Israel in 1956. Only since the 1970’s has the United States been a more reliable ally than other countries.

    And today? I’ve been throughout the US, coast-to-coast, and I can tell you the future here is a toss-up. There’s a good deal of sympathy for Israel here, and there’s also a lot of antipathy, and not just in doped-up left-wing universities. Some of the worst anti-Semitism I’ve encountered has been in very Middle American places like bars and stadiums. Sure, it’s not open now, but the Jewish people have never really been endangered by a country that’s prosperous and generally confident. It’s when the economy tanks, and “The Jews” are somehow implicated, that all the nastiness comes out. Plus the USA has among the world’s fastest-growing Muslim populations, especially among African-Americans, which isn’t helping matters.

    So IOW I wouldn’t count on anybody in the world today as a guaranteed or reliable friend of Israel. To survive, Israel must have its own independent policy and do what’s best for Israel’s interests and those of the global Jewish population. A friend today could become a foe later on. And on a personal level, as I said, Chinese people “get” us b/c they’ve dealt with the same stupidity by resentful populations in which they become successful. There’s potential for very good relations with China if China’s system evolves in a more democratic direction. At the very least, this merits openness to doing business with them.

  12. Pauli,

    I’m going to disagree with you on China although I am more concerned with Russia at the moment.
    I think before the next 10-20 years are past, could even be much sooner, your view of China will be completely different.

    As far as economics, China has adopted Mussolini’s fascist model, see article: From Communism to Fascism? (Wall Street Journal)

    The threat is not only their fascist economics system which they have and will use to their advantage against the US, but their militarization. I think you underestimate them. When they feel the time is right they will move, probably first on Taiwan. It is also possibly they will ally with Russia,; actually they do all the time at the UN.

    Unfortunately, if your not really old you see what China becomes.

    In this world you have friends and you have enemies, all others who seem to be somewhere in between are enemies waiting for circumstances to make them manifest.

  13. Randy and Bill,

    I agree with you entirely on Russia, but not on China. Russia is indeed dangerous and bellicose. China is far more of an enigma, in a sense is neither friend nor enemy– it’s just big, strong and there. On an individual level, Chinese people in my experience have been especially sympathetic to Jews, more than any other people, in part because Chinese have shared the same experience– Chinese generally become the business elite wherever they go, and are hated by the majorities in e.g. Malaysia and Indonesia, resented for the success. The Chinese “get” us.

    As far as policy goes, don’t lump China with Russia. China’s government will do things now and then that aren’t in our interest, and at other times will do things that are in our interest. They aren’t a reliable ally but they aren’t an enemy either, and they can be courted– in fact, China recently gave Israel’s PM one of the most respectful receptions of any country in many years, and has warmed to Israel on many fronts even as they’ve admittedly been pushing deals with Iran. China’s neutralist and depending on our policies, can be coaxed to be at least temporarily in alignment with us. We court disaster if we start to needlessly regard China as an enemy– if the US economy falters and the political winds change here against Israel (and believe me, they are changing– if you want to get a taste of US anti-Semitism, try a bar in Chicago), China is probably our single best prospect as an economic partner. India is extremely reliant on Iran with many deep cultural ties (Persian-Hindu culture has lots of shared characteristics) and grows closer to Iran every day, whereas China is really sui generis, without much in the way of flat-out friends or enemies. It’s foolish and dangerous to consider them in the same league as Russia. We can’t count on them, but China has the potential to be on our side or at least help us economically at critical junctures, and our relationship can at least evolve into mutual respect, as it has recently.

    B. Poster, I agree that Iran’s military wouldn’t be a pushover, and yes a strike on Iran would be unpleasant, but again, I see this as an analogy to 1938. Hitler could’ve been taken down there and yes, it would’ve been unpleasant too, but hesitation and denial in facing the inevitable conflict led to much more pain later. Iran in relative terms is much weaker than Hitler was in 1938, and they could not effectively retaliate against a powerful, coordinated US or Israeli series of air strikes backed by land and sea power. My point is, this confrontation is inevitable, and the longer we postpone it, the more Iran prepares, the more weaponry it accumulates from Russia and the black market, and the more awful the war becomes. The earlier the strikes are carried out on Iran, the less difficult the path to success, and the more solidly Iran learns its lesson.

  14. Randy and Bill

    You are both quite right. Russia is the most dangerous enemy that the US, Israel, and the West face. Russia is the only enemy that poses an existential threat to the US and it supports all of America’s enemies. Without the support of Russia enemies like Iran and Venezuela would be nothing.


    I largely agree with you, however, the Iranian military is not weak. It is very strong. In an attack on Iran, I do believe that either the US, Israel, or both of them would prevail, however, it will be VERY costly. If an attack is launched on Iran’s nuclear facilities, they will likely respond by having their terrorist proxies launch attacks against American interests all over the world. Their proxies will probably launch attacks on the American homeland. Those attacks on the American homeland may include the use of WMD. The death toll would likely be millions of dead Americans. Yes, if this war is fought now, America probably wins. Unfortunatley, if current trends hold, we probably only have a window of two to five years to deal with the Iranian threat. Given current trends, within two to five years Iran would be the odds on favorite to win a military confrontation with the US. When this happens, an Iranian attack on the US is all but guaranteed. Time grows short to deal with Iran. Israel has even less time than the US does.

    Given Iran’s close proximity to Israel, the Israelis have even less time than the Americans to deal with Iran. The Israelis probably only have about six months to a year to deal with this.

    In any attack on Iran, we should expect Russia to get involved on the side of Iran. As I’m writing this, Russia is the single greatest threat in the world to the US, Israel, and the Western world.

    The American military should be reconfigured with the knowledge that Russia is the primary threat. In addition to this, most American and Western intellegence assets need to be devoted to Russia. Also, more diplomatic effort should be devoted to Russia. If we can get Russia to withdraw its support from Iran, the Global War on Terrorism becomes much easier to win.

    Bill speaks the truth when he writes, “know thine enemy.” All Americans and Westerners should take this to heart. Policy makers need to go back to the drawing board and ask themselves if the cold war ever really ended. I would say that it did not.

  15. Your thinking Randy reflects much of my own.

    American felt great pride and satisfaction at the demise of the Soviet Empire and with that Americans felt they had won the cold war.

    America in a magnanimous gesture ran to Russia’s aid in helping it to reinvent itself as a democracy. American thinking since then has been pretty much stuck in the groove of thinking that with Russia transforming into a democracy, the Russian threat to America has vanished for historically democracies do not make war on one another.

    Russia is the exception. Their efforts to reassert their influence in the Middle East have followed the same old cold war pattern when the Soviets on one side supported those Middle Eastern Muslim nations and Palestinians that stood against America and Israel and America supported Israel.

    The Russians as they did during the cold war have sought to enhance their own position at the expense of America.

    Iran is the leading exporter of terrorism against Israel and America and both nations have suffered losses as a result between from the early 1980’s to the end of the 20th century and th first years of the 21st.

    With the evidence surfacing that Iran was behind a number of those terrorist attacks in years gone by, America and Israel had sufficient cause to treat Iran’s actions as an act of war and counter attack. Neither America nor Israel did so.

    Within a year of America going into Iraq to unseat S. Hussein, Iran recognized that America was not going to use their presence there to attack Iran. Further, Iran recognized that with Iraq weakened by civil strife it no longer posed any danger to Iran as Iraq did under S. Hussein.

    With that revelation, Iran began to contribute to the war by arming and inciting the southern Iraqi Shia in their attacks on American forces and Iraqi Sunnis and further as Iraq descended further into chaos, Iran was emboldened to send in some of their own people to contribute directly to the chaos in Iraq to the prejudice and harm of Americans.

    In those contributions, again Iran engaged in a direct act of war against America. Still America has not responded.

    One must however note that while Iran has been engaging in and supporting acts of war against America, they have themselves been supported and enabled to do so with Russia’s aid including Russia arming Iran with sophisticated weaponry and munitions that has and can be used by Iran in its war against America both directly and indirectly.

    Logic and reason spell out pretty clearly that not only is Iran America’s enemy, so too is Russia once again.

    This cold war that Russia has orchestrated is unlike the last one that did result in some limited confrontations between American and Russian spies resulting in the deaths of both.

    This cold war is being waged by Russia on the political and economic front and as for American casualties, Russia plays only an indirect, but very necessary role by its financial and military support of Iran as well as its very successful efforts to date, along with China, another enemy of America, to stymie American efforts to bring the full weight of the U.N. down on Iran for Iran’s malfeasance, mendaciousness and acts that endanger the not only the West and Israel, but the whole of the Middle East.

    Know thine enemy is a caution that Americans cannot too often remind themselves of.

  16. I have been ranting about Russia for some time now and we should be watching China also. The Russians are very shrewd and have been waging a war of deceit and manipulation since Putin came to power.

    Russia is at war with the West by proxy. This has been carefully and cunningly thought out and they are confronting us by using smaller and weaker nations rather than directly themselves. This allows them to still work freely the economic and political fronts without much confrontation. Of late control of energy has been their big push.

    Most Arabs would be swinging saifs rather than toting AK-47s if it weren’t for Russia. If Iran gets nukes it will only be because Russia made it possible. The Arab nations are Russian proxies just like Venezuela. They need each other to expand and maintain power. They are all using each other.

    Do you really think that if terrorist eventually obtained nukes and set them off in Washington, NYC and LA simultaneously that Russian and Chinese elitists would not be pleased?

    They would be concerned for themselves but likely would put on a serious face, condemn the act and use it for an excuse to wipe out the Arab nations involved so that it did not happen to them.

    At that point the Islamic threat is gone, America is no longer a super power, and they are the top dogs in the world.

    I‘m just thinking here, speculating on possibilities, not saying this will happen; but I know there are old hardliners in Russia that are that evil. The same with China, they would shed no tears if the West was hit with WMD regardless of the statements they would make to the world afterwards. Russia and China both are supporting these insane Islamic extremists as a hands off way to strike out at the US and by extension this pulls Israel into the crossfire also.

  17. Russia still very much embraces the zero-sum model of statecraft, in which relative gains for Russia can only occur with relative losses for the USA and Israel. Russia knows that Iran is the most dangerous threat to both the US and Israel and that a nuclear Iran would so radically change the power map of the Middle East as to gut the power of the United States and Israel, and place control of the region’s oil and natural gas under a kind of Tehran-Moscow axis (with Russia as Iran’s biggest investor), so naturally Russia is doing everything it can to frustrate the US and Israel on Iran– gutting the sanctions, providing the Tor-M1 missiles to Iran helping to fund Iran’s nuclear reactors and oil/natural gas programs.

    Russia is also practical of course, and if the US/Israel do launch air strikes, backed by land and naval attacks, against the Iranian nuclear program then Russia if anything would probably back off and see how things develop. (A preemptive nuclear strike on Tehran might be considered by Russia as an act of war and prompt retaliation since the fallout would hit a good deal of Russian territory, but fortunately, the Iranian nuclear program and regime can be shut down and hit very hard with a powerful conventional attack.)

    But as long as Israel and the US pursue a policy of effective appeasement or beating around the margins against the grave Iranian threat, Russia will do as much mischief and damage is possible. The situation right now is a perfect case in point– Olmert and Kadima are too cowardly to actually fight Iran, and while the US is gradually toughening its line, there are far too many people in the USA– such as Condi Rice and James Baker– who are pursuing Neville Chamberlain-style appeasement toward the mullahs, with a sacrifice of Israel included in a fruitless attempt to assuage the fanatical mullahs.

    Thus Russia and Iran, in the meantime, are laughing malevolently and contemptuously at the stupid American and Israeli governments, who they both know could easily crush the Iranian nuclear program in a single powerful blow without the Iranians being able to retaliate effectively, in Iraq, against US ships or in any other regard, since the Iranian military is weak. Russia and Iran then use the opportunity afforded by the months of delay, opened up by Condi Rice’s and Olmert’s idiotic appeasement diplomacy, to arm and train Iran to the teeth, with the Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missiles and with other missiles that can hit the American navy hard and strike Israel– and also supply more and more weaponry to Hezbollah to kill more Israelis.

    A strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities and the industrial systems that support them, focused but very strong, is inevitable in the next few months, or Iran becomes a nuclear power and destroys Israel without firing a shot. The longer we wait, dawdle and hesitate with this stupid appeasement, the more painful the eventual confrontation becomes.

Comments are closed.