Hezbollah’s pursuit of precision missiles fateful for 2020

The Iran-backed terrorist organization remains deterred by Israel’s military might, but pursuing precision missile factories would be taking an enormous risk of escalation. The coming months will reveal whether Hassan Nasrallah realizes the extent of the danger and decides to step back from the brink.

By Yaakov Lapin, ISRAEL HAYOM

While it remains too soon to know the full implications of the assassination of Iranian Quds Force Gen. Qassem Soleimani, and many questions remain, Iran’s malign activity in the Middle East looks set to continue to create risks for escalation.

At the top of the list of immediate threats is the Iranian-Hezbollah plan to construct precision-guided missile factories on Lebanese soil. This represents a top proliferation challenge for Israel in 2020, and Tehran is continuing to lean on Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah to proceed with the construction of the factories. Judging by the comments of Israeli officials in recent months, Jerusalem has adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards such activity.

Giving Hezbollah and the Iranians the ability to accurately threaten strategic spots in Israel with guided missiles built on Lebanese soil looks like a step too far in the force buildup program by Israel’s enemies.

Nasrallah, who has his hands full with Lebanon’s political and economic woes, may not be fully aware of Israel’s determination to stop the construction of such factories. While none have likely been built so far, the possibility of construction work starting on such facilities is keeping tensions heightened between Israel and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah remains deterred by Israel’s military might, but if it proceeds with the missile factories, it would be taking an enormous risk of escalation by inviting Israeli preemptive action.

The coming months will reveal whether Nasrallah realizes the extent of the danger and decides to step back from the brink.

Two central risks to Israel’s security

Despite the loss of Soleimani, which may have a big impact on Iran’s future patterns of conduct, the Islamic republic poses two central threats to Israel’s security. The first stems from its nuclear program, which has been advancing at an alarming rate in recent months; and the second risk comes from Iran’s nefarious regional activities in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and its support for terror factions in the Gaza Strip.

On the nuclear front, blinking red lights should be going off due to Iran’s announcements of resumed uranium-enrichment activities at Fordow and Qom. At the current rate, by this coming spring, Iran’s nuclear program could be six months away from having a sufficient quantity of enriched uranium for a bomb. It’s far from a given that Iran would choose to rush one, due to the risks of inviting American or Israeli strikes, but the fact of the matter is that the program is advancing without anyone stopping it.

On the regional front, Iran is still working hard to transfer advanced weapons to militias and terror entities throughout the region. Under major duress due to the American “maximum pressure” campaign against it and facing significant internal instability, Iran is reacting aggressively. It’s building missile bases in Iraq to threaten Israel and Saudi Arabia, and transferring missiles to Yemen. It is also likely that Iran has transferred cruise missiles to Syria for use against Israel.

The Iranian proliferation routes were masterminded by Soleimani himself and include ground, air and maritime routes to gets advanced weapons to proxies. Simultaneously, the Iranians are trying to build a network of surface-to-air missile batteries across their sphere of influence to challenge Israel’s air superiority.

This aggression largely stems from the fact that Iran’s leaders are in distress. In many ways, the Islamic republic is at its lowest point since the 1979 revolution, and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has understood that he cannot stop the Trump administration’s campaign of biting sanctions.

As a result, Iran is lashing out and testing the responses of its adversaries.

The Iranians have even begun tactical cooperation with ISIS in the region, despite the massive ideological enmity between these Shiite and Sunni fundamentalists. Iran-backed militias have supplied weapons to ISIS in Iraq, and in Syria as well, to promote attacks on moderate Sunni elements and Western targets – targets that both sides can agree on attacking.

Last, but not least, the Bashar Assad regime in Syria has resumed its chemical-weapons program – an issue that will require intensive international attention in the coming year.

Israel is a formidable regional power, and its enemies understand its military might well. However, the intent of the Iranian axis to build up its capabilities is creating new potential for escalations, and 2020 looks set to be a volatile year, despite Israel’s powerful deterrence against its enemies.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

January 17, 2020 | 2 Comments »

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  1. This really scary report of Israel’s unpreparedness on Israel’s northern border is from today’s Ynetnews. Coping with Hizbollah could be really tough for Israel during the next war, whenever it comes. The spending cuts and mass layoffs of experienced soldiers by the IDF has left Israel very vulnerable and insufficiently prepared for war, despite the reassuring statements by IDF top brass.

    REVEALED: IDF’s biggest division is not prepared for war
    Internal audit finds 319th Division on northern border is short of dozens of tanks and vehicles, lacks million of shekels for first troops into combat in event of conflict in north; ‘inspection team has been assembled’ says army
    Yoav Zitun |
    Published: 01.19.20 , 12:35

    Massive shortage of transport vehicles, lack of medial and logistic personal and the low availability of armored vehicles due to drills, states a declassified internal audit by the IDF’s 319th Division; the first division to enter combat in case of war along the northern border.
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    The report was produced by the IDF ombudsman in August 2018, but according to the disclosed analysis, many of the problems reported still remain untreated.
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    APCs belonging to the 319th Division (Photo: Yoav Zitun)

    The dismissal of more than 5,000 non-commissioned officers over the last few years has left units without vital personnel, with just 54 out of 90 logistical and maintenance posts now manned due to the layoffs.
    The IDF Northern Command and GOC Army Headquarters (ground troops) say that since the 2018 audit, many deficiencies have been minimized for equipment and manpower, but officials admit some material shortages will continue in the coming years.
    The report’s findings raise serious questions regarding the readiness of IDF’s ground troops for war. This is especially the case as tensions rise on the northern border, with Iran consolidating in Syria and Hezbollah trying to acquire more accurate and sophisticated weaponry.
    Furthermore, all major military decisions are on hold as Israel is in the throes of a political crisis, having endured a year without a stable government and about to embark on its third election cycle in 12 months.
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    An IDF military vehicle in lackluster condition (Photo: Yoav Zitun)
    According to the audit’s findings, 52% of combat vehicles are unfit for use and there is a 20% shortage of weapons and night-vision equipment for soldiers.
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    Ill-protected military vehicles (Photo: Yoav Zitun)
    The audit found that about half of the 319th Division’s Mark 4 Merkava tanks and almost 100 communication devices have been lent to the Armored Corps training unit, located more than 350km from their main storage and maintenance areas in the north.
    These tanks are worn out, impairing their emergency and combat capabilities.
    A high-ranking officer in the IDF Northern Command said that the issue of lending equipment and armored vehicles is a military decision, citing the Mark 4’s production lines being incapable of accommodating both the standard and training units.
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    The Mark 4 Merkava Tank (Photo: AFP)
    “Most loaned tanks are returned to their original divisions within several days,” said the officer. “We are working to minimize this phenomenon as much as possible.”
    The Northern Command’s logistics unit, upon which the 319th Division relies in times of war, has a shortage in communications equipment and vehicles for medical evacuation, and the division’s medical unit hasn’t had a commanding officer or lieutenant for almost a year.
    A shortage of 49 trucks was also found, with 26 seconded for day-to-day use.
    The auditors found that many armored vehicles were lacking during proper maintenance checks, with 68 of them sitting uncovered and unprotected against the elements.
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    Trucks unprotected against the elements (Photo: Yoav Zitun)
    Dozens of other vehicles were found unusable due to faulty tires and broken engines, and only 34% of oil tankers and more than 33% of cranes were also found to be unusable.
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    Decommissioned military cranes (Photo: Yoav Zitun)
    More than 1,500 trucks were found to be faulty, and the audit warns that each month “an additional 60 trucks are classified as unfit for purpose.”
    The IDF has in the past tried to improve logistical issues at the command and division levels with its “New Life” plan, budgeted at more than NIS 300 million, but a financial shortage of more than NIS 70 million hampered the plan’s full implementation.
    The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said that “an inspection team was established by the chief of staff after the production of the 2018 report, to look into the structure and effectiveness of the army’s emergency storage unit.”
    It emphasized that “the IDF, and the 319th Division in particular, are extremely fit for war.”

  2. An important article. Israel should strike now at Iran’s nuclear facilities, whatever facilities it can hit,

    now

    , before Iran gets the bomb. A side benefit is that it might lead to a victory for the right bloc, as people are often reluctant to change leadership in wartime. Even the A-G, public prosectors and Supreme Court might posepone their harassment of Bibi for the duration.