by Soeren Kern, GATESTONE INSTITUTE
In July, Putin published a 5,000-word article — “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” — in which he wrote that he was convinced that the “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.”
- “The Russian regime’s foremost interest is its own hold on power. All policy, internal and external, stems from this overriding goal.” — Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl, Center for European Policy Analysis.
- “The Russian Federation…has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv’s gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behavior of key Western actors.” — Marek Menkiszak, Center for Eastern Studies.
- The first important factor here is Moscow’s likely perception of the relative weakness of the US. The Kremlin’s initial fear of ‘retribution’ from the new Joe Biden administration for its interference in the 2016 presidential election seems to have given way to the belief that Washington is focused on domestic problems and the challenge from China, so it is seeking to improve relations with the Russian Federation. — Marek Menkiszak.
- “Do not make the mistake of handing an essential part of Europe’s future to a country that is demonstratively not the EU’s friend. Time will not be kind to such decision or to those who made it.” — Olexander Scherba, Ukrainian diplomat, Jamestown Foundation.
- “Russia has a clear aim: to weaken Ukraine so much that it will be relatively easy to control the country’s politics. Moscow can achieve this by forcing Kyiv to implement the Minsk agreement on its terms — which would establish a de facto Russian veto on Ukrainian domestic affairs — and by starting…anti-government revolts. Alternatively, Moscow could pressure Washington to ‘deliver’ Ukraine by signing security guarantees that favored Russia. These guarantees would prohibit Ukraine from not only joining NATO but also engaging in any form of cooperation with the West that would strengthen its resilience. This would eventually force Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence.” — Gustav Gressel, European Council on Foreign Relations.
- “If Russia’s coercive strategy works well, there is no guarantee that it will stop with Ukraine.” — Gustav Gressel.
- “Many European leaders do not seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation…. Ukraine has a gun to its head, but the German government only seems worried about the survival of its pipeline…. This is just the kind of poor judgement that enables Russian military aggression.” — Gustav Gressel.
A massive build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border is fueling speculation of an imminent invasion. Western leaders have warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against military action, but, especially after the catastrophic American withdrawal from Afghanistan, they appear divided and weak and may be unable to stop him.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine, if successful, would expand Moscow’s sphere of influence along its western border and pave the way for Eastern Europe and the Baltics to come under Russian domination once again.
Gatestone publishes garbage.
@Sebastien Zorn is right; Russia is not Soviet Union.
Russia has at least an equally strong claim to the Donbass as Ukraine, if not stronger.
And no, Eastern Ukraine coming under the Russian rule, would not threaten Poland, the Baltics, or Czechs and Slovaks.
Particularly in Poland nobody speaks Russian, nobody wants to be a part of Russia. In Eastern Ukraine most people speak Russian and many want to be a part of Russia.
@Reader
Michael Moore, of all people, made an insightful comedy on this theme, “Canadian Bacon” (1995) Trailer. Alan Alda, John Candy. It’s about an American President who starts a cold war with Canada to boost his ratings during the “thaw” following the collapse of the Soviet bloc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jf8Bt4gD9Y
This is our karma for what Bill Clinton did to Russia in the 90s. We shoved Yeltsin up their collective posterior not once but twice. He was their Biden or even worse, utterly drunk and incompetent, standing a great nation down amidst a pillaging both within and without. There would probably not have been a Putin without the second Yeltsin term. We made Putin necessary for their national survival and now here we are, facing a truncated but enormously militarily powerful Russia that finds power vacuums to its West and South – the places from which it lost power 30 years ago.
What should it do? What it’s doing. Expect them to follow through.
The only aim Russia pursues is not to be attacked again by the West which has been putting it in a choke hold for decades.
The Western elites are, apparently, interested in another huge military conflict with a made-up enemy to distract their populations from the fact that their countries are bankrupt, their lives are getting worse and worse, their civil rights are almost non-existent, and their governments don’t have the faintest idea how to solve these problems other than to hand more money and power to the already super-rich few.
How many countries of the USSR, after its dissolution, came out in a better economic situation, than before their forced integration?
Putin is fully aware of the fact that China is predatory too.
The EU continues to count on the US while many including Germany refuse to pay their fair share to NATO.
The dems have always tried to kiss the behind of Putin, to no avail.
Yawn. Russia is not the Soviet Union. Putin is not our enemy if we don’t mess with him. Let’s stay out of their backyard like we don’t want them mucking around in ours. These SOBs want to plunge us into another pointless unwinnable military adventure. Why is Gatestone pushing this nonsense? Why are we hearing this from people who should know better. The gang Biden is part of created this situation when they overthrew the elected government of Ukraine.